Mexican leftist’s ally sees victory

Leftist firebrand Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appeared to cement his hold over Mexico’s main opposition party Monday after a key ally declared himself the winner of a bitterly fought leadership race.

Alejandro Encinas, a former deputy to Lopez Obrador, claimed victory in the campaign to be president of the left-leaning Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, based on samplings of Sunday’s vote conducted by two polling companies hired by the party.

The contest pitted adherents of Lopez Obrador’s confrontational style of politics against moderates represented by Encinas’ main rival, former federal lawmaker Jesus Ortega.

Ortega discounted the vote-sampling results and said he was waiting for the party’s final tabulation, expected Wednesday. The so-called quick counts gave margins of 4 and 8 percentage points for Encinas, who succeeded Lopez Obrador as mayor of Mexico City.

But Mexico’s media widely reported that Encinas had won the post, with one newspaper pointing to Lopez Obrador as the true victor: “AMLO wins the election in the PRD,” read the front-page headline in Monday’s Milenio, employing Lopez Obrador’s initials.

The outcome could be bad news for President Felipe Calderon and his conservative government. Analysts said the populist Lopez Obrador would probably assume a more strident posture, especially in opposition to possible reform of the nation’s energy industry.

“We are going to see a much more confrontational line with the government of Felipe Calderon,” said Alfonso Zarate, a political analyst. Lopez Obrador “has not only the social muscle but the party apparatus too.”

Lopez Obrador has threatened to have his supporters block oil wells, roads and airports to head off any measures that would allow private investment in the state-owned oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Proponents say such a change could boost Mexico’s sagging reserves.

Calderon has yet to propose a detailed energy plan, but has suggested that changes are needed to tap new sources in the deeper waters of the Gulf of Mexico. He has cited other nations that allow private investment in state-owned energy enterprises.

Lopez Obrador summoned followers to Mexico City today to demonstrate against the possibility of privatizing Pemex. The event, planned weeks ago, coincides with the 70th anniversary of Mexico’s decision to nationalize oil holdings in 1938.

The outcome of Sunday’s vote within the Democratic Revolution Party was clouded by scattered clashes and numerous reports of vote manipulation.

Nonetheless, party officials overseeing the balloting declared that most problems were relatively minor and that the final results, when announced, would be considered valid.

The campaign was nasty even by the standards of a party accustomed to factionalism and infighting. At stake were the PRD’s national presidency and leadership posts in Mexico City and Mexico’s 31 states, plus hundreds of local positions.

Though he was not on the ballot, the outcome was crucial for Lopez Obrador, who lost the nation’s presidency by a hair’s breadth to Calderon in 2006. Since then, the party has been riven by internal turmoil.

A loss for Encinas would weaken Lopez Obrador’s standing within the PRD and, some analysts said, could prompt a party split. Lopez Obrador is expected to seek the party nomination in the nation’s next presidential election in 2012.

Encinas promised to try to reunify his divided party, though that may not be easy.

“This is not a matter between good and bad, radicals and moderates,” he said in an interview on the Televisa network Monday. “Diversity in the PRD is a virtue and must remain so.”

Lopez Obrador never recognized his loss in the 2006 election, which he said resulted from fraud and dirty campaign tactics. Instead, he declared himself Mexico’s “legitimate president” and has sought to make life difficult for Calderon.

In recent weeks, the leftist leader has led a campaign to oust Calderon’s interior minister, Juan Camilo Mourino, over charges that Mourino took advantage of his previous positions in the Mexican government to direct business to a family-owned oil-trucking firm.

PRD moderates say political compromise with the Calderon government and rival political parties is unavoidable if their party is to serve as a serious opposition. The PRD has the second-highest number of seats in the Chamber of Deputies, behind Calderon’s National Action Party.

Critics say Lopez Obrador’s defiant approach, popular with die-hard followers among Mexico’s disenfranchised, has hurt the party in state and local elections since the 2006 loss.

--

ken.ellingwood@latimes.com