Budget Key to Survival for Governor

SACRAMENTO —  As he faces record-low approval ratings and surging support for a campaign to remove him from office, Gov. Gray Davis’ political survival hinges on a timely resolution of the state budget impasse and the loyalty of fellow Democrats, Democratic and Republican analysts said Friday.

Political partisans and analysts gleaned bad news as well as a glimmer of hope for the Democratic governor from a Los Angeles Times poll released Friday, in which only 22% of voters gave Davis a favorable approval rating and 51% said they would cast ballots to unseat him if a recall election were held today.

Darrell Issa, the Republican congressman from Vista who has supplied much of the money for the recall, welcomed those numbers during an appearance in Orange County. Davis, he said, is “on his way out.” Issa added that he hopes to make the governor’s “last 100 days in office just as miserable as I can.”

The poll also revealed that just 3% of registered voters would pick Issa over other competitors in a race to succeed Davis -- placing him far behind other potential Republican contenders such as former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger and ever further behind U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, by far the state’s most popular political figure.

But the congressman dismissed those findings: “Davis has 100% name identification, and look what trouble he’s in.”

If the recall moves forward, the governor’s low ratings could lead some Democrats to dump Davis in favor of a more popular candidate capable of keeping the office in Democratic hands, the analysts said. But the poll also indicated significant voter uneasiness with the cost of the recall and other factors unrelated to Davis -- giving the governor an opening, though a slim one.

“It’s very good news for Gray Davis, because the results say he could defeat the recall,” said Darry Sragow, a Democratic consultant. “If he gets the budget finished, if he or others communicate effectively to voters the problems associated with the recall, and if the members of his party stand behind him, he can keep his office.”

Davis spent most of the July 4 holiday in his Sacramento office. He took time in the afternoon to make his case against the recall in a series of radio interviews before flying south to attend a barbecue and fireworks show with Marines and National Guard members in Orange County.

He told those at the Los Alamitos Joint Force Training Base that he found the poll “encouraging” because people will realize that the millions spent on a recall election “would be better used to pay for classes for schoolchildren and police officers than to have some crazy election.”

His spokesman said the low approval ratings Davis received in the Times poll should be viewed in a national context.

“There’s one governor in America whose popularity is over 50%,” said Press Secretary Steve Maviglio, referring to Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle, a Republican. “Californians are angry, and they take it out on their leaders. Once we pass a budget, I think you’ll see all the other numbers improve.”

But Davis faces a striking dearth of goodwill, even among Democrats, the poll found.

“This is the worst possible news at the worst possible time for Davis,” said Dan Schnur, a Republican consultant.

“Given that Californians don’t really know their politicians and we have this budget crisis going on and the governor is the only one they recognize, it doesn’t really surprise me at all,” said Roger Salazar, a Davis political advisor.

Even some critics accept the Davis argument that he is reaping more than his fair share of the blame for California’s economy and bleak fiscal outlook.

“During good times, a governor gets a disproportionate share of the credit,” said Schnur. “And when people are upset, he gets a disproportionate share of the blame.”

Organizers say they are close to collecting the nearly 900,000 signatures needed to qualify the recall for a statewide vote.

For Davis the Times poll offers clues to salvaging his career, the political analysts said. And the first step is getting a budget passed -- a goal that requires at least some Republican votes in the Senate and the Assembly.

Davis is proposing about $18 billion in spending cuts, $8 billion in tax increases and about $10 billion in borrowing to address the shortfall. But many Democratic lawmakers oppose those cuts, and Republican legislators, almost without exception, oppose the tax increases, leaving the state without a budget in the fiscal year that began July 1.

The pressure on Davis to get a budget gives Republicans in the Capitol unusual leverage. Withholding their support for a budget only deepens his political troubles. “Once the budget gets signed and the media coverage drops off, voter anger dissipates,” said Schnur.

If Davis gets a budget, he can begin the task of rebuilding support in his political base. His weakness there was graphically revealed by the Times poll, which found that 54% of Democrats gave him a negative rating.

Analysts say he needs to work closely with fellow Democrats -- something Davis has failed to do at times -- and address the concerns of voters on the economy and education.

“The first thing is to win back the voters in the base who have become dissatisfied,” Sragow said. “Part of it is getting a budget and part of it is communicating the risks and the costs associated with a successful recall campaign. Then he must address the underlying concerns of the voters that have caused Californians to become so pessimistic.”

At present, Davis’ adversaries are Republicans and recall supporters. But his undoing, some analysts said after reviewing the poll, could come from Democratic ranks if a serious challenger emerged there.

“The one thing you can predict from these approval numbers is at some point the Democratic Party is going to drop Davis and look for an alternative,” Schnur said. “Whether it’s Feinstein or one of the state office holders, they’re not going to risk their party on the back of a governor with a 20% approval rating.”

Some Democratic strategists agree. Feinstein and other Democrats are “going to be keeping an eye on the polling,” Sragow said. “If at some future point the prospects of defeating the recall seem hopeless, somebody’s going to come out of the woodwork. There may be lots of somebodies.”

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Jones reported from Sacramento, Reich from Orange County.