Opinion: 3 marijuana ballot initiatives could determine California’s future pot vote

One of the most interesting issues facing California is not actually on our ballot. Voters on Tuesday in Oregon, Alaska and the District of Columbia will decide whether to legalize recreational marijuana. The results of those elections may determine whether Californians face a similar ballot initiative in 2016.

Earlier this year advocates had floated four potential initiatives for the November ballot to legalize marijuana. The moment seemed right -- recent polling found that a majority of Californians favored legalized pot and Colorado and Washington became the first states to allow the growth, sale and use of recreational marijuana. But advocates ultimately decided to wait for 2016, giving them additional time to raise money for a campaign and the larger, potentially younger and more liberal turnout of a presidential election year.

The delay also allowed more time to observe Colorado and Washington’s experience, and gauge the success of ballot initiatives in Oregon, Alaska and D.C.

But, as Times reporter Evan Halper wrote, the statewide ballot initiatives appear to be teetering and supporters are feeling less confident of victory than they were a few months ago. Recent polls suggest Oregon’s measure is barely above 50% support and Alaska’s measure appears to be failing. The statewide initiatives would legalize recreational use for adults and establish regulatory systems to grow and sell pot. D.C.’s initiative would legalize possession of two ounces and allow people to grow up to six marijuana plants in their homes. But the law would have to be reviewed by Congress and at least one member has already sought to block D.C. from enforcing the law, if it passes.

So, Oregon and Alaska are the bellwethers for legalization in California. If the initiatives fail, the California coalition that is planning for 2016 would have to evaluate whether there is still enough support for legalization. Losses in 2014 don’t doom a California initiative but it would make the advocates’ job harder. They would have to provide a compelling reason why voters in California should do what Alaskans and Oregonians wouldn’t.

If, however, the initiatives are successful, then advocates could make the case that California is following a well-trod path to legalization.

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