Cinderella, Schminderella.
A long shot is not going to win the NCAA men’s basketball championship.
Don’t believe the hype. Don’t be suckered by the song. There is no glass slipper. There is no dancing into the Final Four. One shining moment casts a narrow glow.
As you fill out your brackets, go ahead, inaugurate James Madison, camp out in Grand Canyon, brush hard with Colgate, embrace all kinds of double-digit dreamers throughout the opening weekend.
Feel free to play the annual lock of at least one 12-seed beating a 5-seed, bank on at least half of the nine-seeds beating the eight-seeds, go crazy with one of the play-in winners to stun the world for the opening two rounds.
Here’s a look at the players to watch, potential Cinderella teams and matchup analysis for every first-round game in the men’s 2024 NCAA tournament.
But end it there. Reserve the next two weeks for the big guys. Ride only the top-four seed heavyweights into the Final Four. Realize that despite all the legend and lore and heart-stirring music, this tourney filled with Davids is ultimately a grab for Goliath.
There have been 38 national champions crowned since the tournament expanded in 1985. Of those, 24 were No. 1 seeds. That’s 63%, a figure that grows to 75% when one considers that 12 of the last 16 champions were No. 1 seeds.
Admittedly, last year, no No. 1 seed even made the Final Four. But it was the first time in a dozen years and only the fourth time in 44 years. A fluke. And look who won — a fourth-seeded team from UConn that was hardly an underdog.
No seed lower than eight — and only three seeds below the top four — have ever won a championship.
When filling out your bracket, use your head, not your heart, and understand that March Madness is really a March from Madness, the tourney growing more predictable by the day.
Based on these truths, my bracket is mostly Cinderella free yet completely un-bustable.
Check it out. Apologies for all the pumpkins.
Connecticut is attempting to become the first team to win consecutive titles since Florida 17 years ago. The tournament’s top seed is missing two stars from last year’s championship but they return the one mandatory piece for a Final Four contender — a veteran point guard. He is Tristen Newton, and he should be able to navigate the Huskies out of potential Auburn trouble in the Sweet 16 and lead them on a seemingly inevitable journey to Glendale, Ariz., and State Farm Stadium for the Final.
Hold up…
The Huskies will lose in the Elite Eight to the quietly elite Iowa State. The second-seeded Cyclones are devoid of superstars, but they have a bunch of solid players who ranked second in the country in defense and who just won the tournament championship of easily the toughest conference in the country, the Big 12. They beat Houston twice, they beat Kansas, and they will beat Connecticut.
First Round
Connecticut def. Stetson — Friday, 11:45 a.m.| CBS
Northwestern def. Florida Atlantic — Friday, 9:15 a.m. | CBS
Alabama Birmingham def. San Diego State — Friday, 10:45 a.m. | TNT
Auburn def. Yale — Friday, 1:15 p.m. | TNT
Brigham Young def. Duquesne — Thursday, 9:40 a.m. | TruTV
Illinois def. Morehead State — Thursday, 9:15 a.m. | TruTV
Washington State def. Drake — Thursday, 7:05 p.m. | TruTV
Iowa State def. South Dakota State — Thursday, 4:35 p.m. | TruTV
Second Round
Connecticut def. Northwestern
Auburn def. Alabama Birmingham
Brigham Young def. Illinois
Iowa State def. Washington State
Sweet 16
Connecticut def. Auburn
Iowa State def. Brigham Young
Elite Eight
Iowa State def. Connecticut
This region, which will finish at Crypto.com Arena, is a battle for redemption.
The top seed is North Carolina, which blew a double-digit lead to Kansas in the championship game two years ago and collapsed last year. The Tar Heels are led by that mandatory star guard — RJ Davis — and they have a strong veteran presence in Armando Bacot, who has seemingly been at UNC for a decade.
On the other side of the bracket is Arizona and, well, West Coast types know all about Arizona. Great talent, loud fans, zero fortitude. The Wildcats lost in the first round in three of their previous five NCAA tournament appearances and were recently knocked out of a Pac-12 tournament they should have dominated. This team, however, has one asset those other teams didn’t — Caleb Love, a North Carolina transfer who almost single-handedly knocked UCLA out of the tournament two years ago. In front of the thousands of Arizona fans who will descend upon downtown Los Angeles, with his sights set on playing in front of a similar crowd in the Final Four, he will deliver the same crushing blow to his former school.
A look at the men’s and women’s matchups for the 2024 NCAA tournament, with Long Beach State men set to play Arizona in the first round on Thursday.
First Round
North Carolina def. Wagner — Thursday, 11:45 a.m. | CBS
Mississippi State def. Michigan State — Thursday, 9:15 a.m. | CBS
Saint Mary’s def. Grand Canyon — Friday, 7:05 p.m. | TruTV
Alabama def. Charleston — Friday, 4:35 p.m. | TruTV
New Mexico def. Clemson — Friday, 12:10 p.m. | TruTV
Baylor def. Colgate — Friday, 9:40 a.m. | TruTV
Nevada def. Dayton — Thursday, 1:30 p.m. | TBS
Arizona def. Long Beach State — Thursday, 11 a.m. | TBS
Second Round
North Carolina def. Mississippi State
Saint Mary’s def. Alabama
Baylor def. New Mexico
Arizona def. Nevada
Sweet 16
North Carolina def. Saint Mary’s
Arizona def. Baylor
Elite Eight
Arizona def. North Carolina
Houston is the deserved top seed here and the beneficiary of the tournament’s easiest path. It is the best defensive team in the nation, leading in both opponents’ points per game and field-goal percentage, and there’s nobody in this bracket who can outscore the Cougars.
The Cougars may struggle with big-rebounding Texas A&M, streaking James Madison, or hot-shooting Kentucky. But for 40 minutes, no other team in the country can match their combination of smart coaching in Kelvin Sampson and savvy playmaking in Jamal Shead.
Oh, and No. 2-seeded Marquette? A nice team, but the Golden Eagles can’t survive the oblique injury that is nagging star Tyler Kolek.
First Round
Houston def. Longwood — Friday, 6:20 p.m. | TNT
Texas A&M def. Nebraska — Friday, 3:50 p.m. | TNT
James Madison def. Wisconsin — Friday, 6:40 p.m. | CBS
Duke def. Vermont — Friday, 4:10 p.m. | CBS
Texas Tech def. N.C. State — Thursday, 6:40 p.m. | CBS
Kentucky def. Oakland — Thursday, 4:10 p.m. | CBS
Colorado def. Florida — Friday, 1:30 p.m. | TBS
Marquette def. Western Kentucky — Friday, 11 a.m. | TBS
Second Round
Houston def. Texas A&M
James Madison def. Duke
Kentucky def. Texas Tech
Marquette def. Boise State/Colorado
Sweet 16
Houston def. James Madison
Kentucky def. Marquette
Elite Eight
Houston def. Kentucky
Purdue can’t keep collapsing, can it? The Boilermakers have been knocked out by a 13-seed, a15-seed and a 16-seed in each of their last three NCAA tournaments. This year, as a No. 1 seed with giant defending Wooden Award winner Zach Edey in the middle and veterans everywhere, they are surely choke-proof, no?
They are 7-0 against top-25 opponents, Edey leads Division I in scoring, they have the requisite star point guard in Braden Smith and they carry the harsh memories of last season’s landmark first-round loss to 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson.
Remember several years ago when Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a 16-seed when they were defeated by University of Maryland-Baltimore County? Remember what happened the following year? Yeah, Virginia won the national title, and the same turnaround could be happening with Purdue.
The Boilermakers’ biggest test will come in the Elite Eight against one of the tournament’s most complete teams, a Creighton squad that beat UConn by 19.
Kansas? Too injured. Tennessee? Don’t trust coach Rick Barnes in a big game. Gonzaga? Their run is done.
The women’s NCAA basketball tournament is more compelling than the men’s, and all eyes will be on USC and UCLA in their quests for a national title.
First round
Purdue def. Grambling State — Friday, 4:25 p.m. | TBS
Utah State def. Texas Christian — Friday, 6:55 p.m. | TBS
McNeese def. Gonzaga — Thursday, 4:25 p.m. | TBS
Kansas def. Samford — Thursday, 6:55 p.m. | TBS
South Carolina def. Oregon — Thursday, 1 p.m. | TNT
Creighton def. Akron — Thursday, 10:30 a.m. | TNT
Texas def. Colorado State — Thursday, 3:50 p.m. | TNT
Tennessee def. St. Peter’s — Thursday, 6:20 p.m. | TNT
Second round
Purdue def. Utah State
Kansas def. McNeese
Creighton def. South Carolina
Tennessee def. Texas
Sweet 16
Purdue def. Kansas
Creighton def. Tennessee
Elite Eight
Purdue def. Creighton
Houston has the toughness to overcome Purdue’s size, and the defensive ferocity to rattle its veterans. The Cougars constantly force turnovers, and pound the boards for offensive rebounds until those turnovers become points. Edey will be neutralized, and the quicker Cougars will dominate.
With Love and Oumar Ballo and Pelle Larsson, Arizona has a veteran starting core worthy of a spot in the national title game. Iowa State may slow them, but the Cyclones can’t score enough on them, and the Wildcats will use their home-state advantage to roll into the ultimate Monday night.
Houston def. Purdue
Arizona def. Iowa State
Houston has spent much of the season as the best team in the best conference with the best player and the best defense. In the final game of the season, even amid a Glendale crowd that will be roaring for Arizona, the Cougars will be the best once more.
Houston def. Arizona | Tiebreaker Score: 70-60
Which team has won the most NCAA men’s basketball tournament titles? March Madness begins this week without the all-time leading UCLA Bruins.
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