ISRAEL: Who won Israel’s elections?

This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.

The curious result of elections on Tuesday,
in which Tzipi Livni seems to have won the most votes while her party lost the ability to form a government, has left Israelis confused.

Until the dust settles and the next prime minister is named, here’s some stuff to contemplate:

Despite general apathy, turnout was 65.2% -- slightly up from the last elections, although still low compared to past zeal. The tight race between Kadima and Likud did encourage citizens to brave stormy weather and go vote. Why? As sociologist Oz Almog put it, voters show up ‘when the playoff is interesting.’ Maybe the elections are over, but the game is just beginning as both the centrist Livni and the right-wing Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu claim victory.

The Gaza operation derailed the original agenda, and elections bounced back to their default settings of defense issues. The temporary alignment on a narrow agenda blurred the differences between the parties and focused attention on the candidates.

Under the parliamentary system, Israelis do not elect a prime minister. They elect parties for parliament. It’s supposed to be business, not personal -- but Israelis forgot and voted for (or against) the parties’ leaders. ‘It’s either Tzipi or Bibi,’ was the common thought. Now it may be both. A national-unity government might rescue Livni from defeat and Bibi from heading a hawkish and religious government.

‘Vote out of hope, not fear’ was Livni’s message to voters,
handwritten too on the ‘wall of hope’ at a voters’ event for women last Friday. But she used scare tactics, detractors say, and frightened left wingers into voting for Kadima to block Bibi, resulting in a depleted left wing. Labor and Meretz lost around 30% of their support to Kadima and accuse Livni of selling a bluff.

For now, Kadima is one seat ahead of Likud. Both want to form the next government, Livni as the head of the largest party and Bibi as the head of the larger right-wing bloc. Both believe they represent the people’s real choice. Israeli law entrusts the president to assign forming a government to a candidate backed by at least half the parliament (61) or to the member of Knesset with the highest chance of succeeding, usually the head of the largest faction.

The results are not final; there remain the uncounted votes of diplomats, soldiers, prisoners, hospital patients and students. If their votes don’t follow the breakdown of those counted, this might change the picture Thursday evening.

Within three hours of the exit polls, the leaders of the four largest parties all pledged to change ‘the system’ of government and possibly elections too.

The parliament is often split down the middle on the big issues, causing paralysis. Still, for all the system’s shortcomings, there’s something to be said for a parliament that genuinely reflects the faults and faultlines of its society. After losing the governmental hegemony of 30 years to Likud in 1977, Yitzhak Ben-Aharon of Labor remarked: ‘If this is the will of the people, then the people must be replaced.’

Speaking of replacements -- Israel will have a new parliament in a few days. But it might be weeks before it has a new government and prime minister, as late as April 7. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has resigned over corruption investigations but remains caretaker until the next government is sworn in.

A few months ago, Ehud Barak twisted Kadima’s arm into ousting Olmert and electing a new party chairman to succeed him and form a new government. Naturally, he would have been a senior partner in it. Well, Livni was elected party leader by an unsatisfying majority, failed to form a coalition, and elections were called. Once again, Livni’s position is precarious, and Barak is probably facing exile by opposition with Labor’s meager 13 seats, the result of his bad gamble. Eight minutes before the exit polls were published, journalist Yair Lapid remarked on TV that if Olmert were looking for a fun way to pass those last minutes, he might call the other Ehud (Barak) and ask him whether it was worth it.

And one last poin t... OK, OK. Hail the leader. Fine -- but there’s no need to take it literally.

Hailstorms Tuesday night caused nationwide Internet problems and killed my Web connection for a crucial 10 hours, the journalist’s equivalent of ‘all dressed up and nowhere to go.’ Watching ice balls pile up outside and two leaders claiming victory on TV, it was ‘elections, unplugged’ for this reporter.

-- Batsheva Sobelman in Jerusalem

Top: Women wish Livni success on the ‘wall of hope’ at a recent campaign event for women.
Second from top: Vote out of hope, not fear -- Livni’s handwritten message.
Middle: Thinking pink at a Livni rally. Credit: Gabby Sobelman. Bottom: Hailing the leader ... Credit: Batsheva Sobelman