On Court, It Looks Like the Start of Ewing’s Era, End of Dr. J’s . . . : THE NBA : WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN 1985-86 SEASON

Not counting overtime, there are only 90,528 minutes left to play in the National Basketball Assn.’s regular season. Or to make the end seem even closer, only 5,431,680 seconds left until the so-called real season begins.

Considering that the 82-game NBA regular season runs from October to April, who can be faulted for looking ahead to the playoffs, when interest, intensity and TV ratings soar? Obviously, it is what happens once the teams get there that really matters, except for the few borderline teams fighting just to make the playoffs.

So, it won’t be until April that the Lakers truly begin their defense of the NBA championship and, in the process, try to become the first champion in 16 years to repeat.

For the other NBA powers that be, or would be--Boston and Philadelphia make up the first group, Detroit, Houston and maybe Milwaukee and Portland the second--playoff spots are seemingly assured almost before it’s time to unpack the winter clothes.

Already, Laker Coach Pat Riley has charted a course that should have his team cruising through the regular season without exerting maximum effort, then peaking in June.

Although Riley said he can’t speak for Golden State, Indiana and the NBA’s other have-nots, he said it’s important for contending teams to practice moderation during the regular season.

“You can’t push, push, push during the regular season, or you’ll burn out,” Riley said. “I did it before out of inexperience and paid for it in the playoffs. I hate to lose anytime, but I’ve learned to give it a hand ride. Keep it in perspective. It’s eight long months of basketball to get to the finals.”

What will we see in the six-month prelude to the playoffs? Enough to keep ardent fans interested and casual fans awake.

The Patrick Ewing era is beginning and, judging by his four fights and two ejections during the exhibition season, it should be anything but dull.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is continuing into a 17th season, more than any player in league history. What’s more surprising than that, though, is that Abdul-Jabbar has flourished, not faded, in recent years. Apparently, Riley is not the only Laker who understands the value of a comfortable pace.

This also may be the farewell regular-season tour for Julius Erving, a fading superstar who will turn 35 soon, and a second chance to take a look at Michael Jordan, considered Erving’s successor.

But we will have to wait until spring to find out if the champions-don’t-repeat theory will be put to rest or extended.

Looking ahead 1,886 games, as some others no doubt are, here are some predictions for the playoffs as well as the regular season:

THE SEVEN TEAMS THAT WILL QUALIFY ONLY FOR THE DRAFT LOTTERY

1. New York (24-58 last season)--Since last May, when the Knicks were the big winners in the lottery, Patrick Ewing has appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated, Sport, Inside Sports and Business Week. But he and the Knicks may not appear in the playoffs.

Ewing, though already a force defensively, cannot carry the Knicks. Bernard King, last season’s NBA scoring champion, will most likely need the entire season to rehabilitate his seriously injured right knee. And 7-1 Bill Cartwright, who was out all of last season after twice breaking his foot, missed all of the Knicks’ exhibition games because the same foot was still sore.

Since Bernard King probably won’t be available, the Knicks have tendered an offer sheet to little brother Albert, a free agent who played last season across the river in New Jersey. The Knicks are also weak at guard, with Rory Sparrow and Darrell Walker the likely starters.

2. The Clippers (31-51)--Without point guard Norm Nixon, the Clippers can reserve another suite for the 1986 draft lottery, and they won’t need to guarantee it for late arrival.

If Nixon signs, however, or a quality replacement can be found; if Marques Johnson can rebound from the worst season of his career; if Cedric Maxwell can come back from knee surgery; if Jamaal Wilkes, at 33, can still contribute, and if 7-foot rookie Benoit Benjamin can develop more quickly than it appears he will, then the Clippers will have a chance of making the playoffs for the first time in 10 seasons.

3. Indiana (22-60)--Of the top three players selected in last June’s draft, Wayman Tisdale may make the biggest impact this season. It may not be enough to lift the Pacers into the playoffs, but it should be enough to keep owners Simon and Simon--shopping center magnates Mel and Herb--patient, and to keep the players and Coach George Irvine optimistic.

The Pacers, weak at center and even weaker at guard, need one of each to be competitive. Clint Richardson, acquired Wednesday from Philadelphia, could be the answer at guard. Or maybe, they’ll get first pick in the next lottery.

4. Seattle (31-51)--New coach Bernie Bickerstaff inherited a team that deftly avoided first-round playoff annihilation at the hands of the Lakers last spring by losing 12 of its last 13 games and failing to make postseason play. Those same players are back, plus draft prize Xavier McDaniel, and the SuperSonics somehow will find a way to miss the playoffs again.

Although Seattle has a capable front line of center Jack Sikma, strong forward Tom Chambers and small forward McDaniel, it is woefully weak at guard. Same for the bench. The SuperSonics aren’t so bad, however, that they won’t give Phoenix a run for the final Western Conference playoff spot.

5. Atlanta (34-48)--Dominique Wilkins is now a guard, which should help the Hawks improve their 20th ranking on offense. But without a dominating center--Tree Rollins, at 30, is too old, and rookie Jon Koncak is too young--and with only average starting forwards, Cliff Levingston and Antoine Carr, Atlanta figures to miss the playoffs for a second consecutive year.

Look for owner Ted Turner to replace embattled Coach Mike Fratello, perhaps with assistant Willis Reed.

6. Sacramento (31-51)--You can change cities, change uniforms and change attitudes, but you can’t change the fact that the Kings are not a good team. But then, the 9,323 season-ticket holders at the new 10,000-seat Arco Arena aren’t expecting much, just an NBA-caliber team.

The Kings are that--barely. Eddie Johnson, a small forward with an accurate jump shot, will again average more than 20 points, and enigmatic guard Reggie Theus should, too. Beyond that, Sacramento doesn’t have much. Rookie 6-11 center Joe Kleine will split time with incumbent LaSalle Thompson. Neither will make a difference.

7. Golden State (22-60)--The biggest loser on the court last season also turned out to be the biggest loser in the draft lottery. The Warriors, most in need of Patrick Ewing’s help, drew No. 7 in the draft.

The Warriors used that seventh choice to select Chris Mullin, whom they still haven’t signed. High-scoring forward Purvis Short took his 28-point average out of camp in a contract dispute and may keep on walking. Center Joe Barry Carroll has returned from Italy, however, and bulky forward Greg Ballard will make Golden State a tad better, although he will be out for three weeks after having arthroscopic knee surgery.

THE EIGHT THAT WILL EXIT THE PLAYOFFS IN THE FIRST ROUND

1. San Antonio (41-41)--As is indicated by their record last season, the Spurs were a model of mediocrity. They will be fortunate to win half their games this season but should barely beat out Seattle and the Clippers for the final playoff spot.

That’s as far as they’ll get, though. This should be the last stand at the Alamo for 36-year-old center Artis Gilmore, who reportedly looked slow in exhibition games. George (Iceman) Gervin had his least productive season last time around, averaging 21 points, and some have suggested that his best days are behind him.

The Spurs will be helped on the boards by Steve Johnson, acquired from Chicago, but they need either to re-sign free-agent guard Johnny Moore or to trade for another point guard. Alvin Robertson plays better as an off-guard. 2. Phoenix (36-46)--Walter Davis, who missed all of last season with torn knee ligaments, is back and is said to be as good as ever. That’s good news to the Suns, who traded muscle-man Maurice Lucas to the Lakers for a second-round pick, and traded Kyle Macy for two second-round picks.

If Larry Nance returns--he wants his contract renegotiated--and if Coach John McLeod can coax good performances out of big men Alvan Adams and James Edwards, the Suns won’t set until the first round. McLeod, by the way, has turned Phoenix into a running team. New style, same result.

3. Denver (52-30)--In the Western Conference, the Nuggets seem to be the team most likely to recede. They shocked everyone by winning the Midwest Division title and advancing to the conference final. But Dan Issel, a stabilizing force, retired, and the Nuggets made no moves to improve their roster.

Forward Calvin Natt, who averaged 23 points last season, is coming off knee surgery and may not be as effective. Alex English, Lafayette (Fat) Lever, Wayne Cooper and T.R. Dunn give the Nuggets enough talent to put up a good fight in the first round.

4. Utah (41-41)--Last season, the Jazz pulled the most stunning upset of the playoffs, ousting Houston in the first round. Utah will be competitive again this season but not strong enough to overcome Houston or Dallas.

Center Mark Eaton is intimidating in the middle and will be joined up front by Thurl Bailey and rookie Karl Malone. Adrian Dantley has been moved to off-guard, at least temporarily, because Darrell Griffith broke a bone in his left foot and is out until January. Griffith has yet to sign a contract. Rickey Green and John Stockton share the point-guard duties.

5. Chicago (38-44)--The Bulls have Michael Jordan and Orlando Woolridge, so they’ll make the playoffs. But without a dominant center--Dave Corzine doesn’t count--the Bulls will make another first-round exit. Chicago is still trying to trade for a point guard, even though Kyle Macy was acquired from Phoenix.

Stan Albeck, the new coach, is trying to turn the Bulls into a clone of the running, gunning San Antonio Spurs, whom he coached a few years ago. That should mean more points and highlight film clips for Jordan.

6. New Jersey (42-40)--Dave Wohl, a former Laker assistant, has taken over Albeck’s old job. He has inherited a decent team that always seems to be overlooked in the brutally tough Atlantic Division.

The Nets’ starters are solid--Micheal Ray Richardson and Otis Birdsong at guards, Darryl Dawkins and Mike Gminski dividing center, and Buck Williams and Albert King at forwards. The Nets are expected to match the Knicks’ offer sheet on King.

7. Washington (40-42)--Half of the Bullets’ Beef Brothers front line is gone. Rick Mahorn, 6-10 and 250 pounds, was traded to Detroit for Dan Roundfield, leaving 6-10, 240-pound Jeff Ruland to fend for himself. But that’s not the only change the Bullets made after being ousted by Philadelphia in the first round. Forward Greg Ballard was sent to Golden State for nothing more than a second-round draft choice.

Washington needs to improve its rebounding and its anemic offense. Gus Williams, to be sure, can score, but the Bullets need more balance, or they’ll duplicate last season’s 105-point average.

8. Cleveland (36-46)--After so many years as a Central Division doormat, the Cavaliers suddenly became a team to be taken seriously. And it did happen suddenly. The Cavaliers opened the season 2-19 but finished 34-27 and actually won a game from the Celtics in the playoffs.

People will be keeping tabs on the Cavaliers to see if last season’s success was a fluke. It was not, though. Forwards Roy Hinson and Phil Hubbard are underrated, and guard World B. Free not only can shoot a lot, he can also make many of those shots. John Bagley’s forte is passing, which is fortunate since that’s what Free demands.

The Cavaliers are solid off the bench, with rookie forwards Keith Lee and John (Hot Rod) Williams, whose contract is on hold pending the outcome of the state of Louisiana’s appeal of his sports bribery case, which was originally dismissed.

FOUR THAT WILL FALL IN THE CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

1. Portland (42-40)--The Trail Blazers were better than their record showed last season. That should be proven this season, now that center Sam Bowie has a year of experience and Coach Jack Ramsay plans to open the offense to suit his talent.

Depth is Portland’s strong point. Clyde Drexler, an exciting open-court player who averaged 17 points a game, may not be a starter, which upsets Drexler but makes the Trail Blazers even stronger. Rugged Kenny Carr helps on defense and on the boards. Kiki Vandeweghe, though weak defensively, is a proven scorer.

Portland’s depth at point guard is almost ridiculous. Darnell Valentine, subject of many trade rumors, is the likely starter, with improving second-year man Steve Colter and first-round pick Terry Porter the backups. Drexler and Jim Paxson are the off-guards.

2. Dallas (44-38)--Maverick Coach Dick Motta has said that his team could only go so far without a true center. He was proven right again last season, when the Mavericks were eliminated in the second round by Portland.

So, with three first-round draft picks, Motta and his superiors selected two centers--7-footers Uwe Blab and Bill Wennington--along with forward Detlef Schrempf. Neither Blab nor Wennington is Motta’s ideal center, but they’ll have to do. Otherwise, the Mavericks are strong. Mark Aguirre, Jay Vincent, Schrempf and Sam Perkins are the forwards, Rolando Blackman and Brad Davis the guards.

Still, the Mavericks are one player--a dominant center--away from serious consideration.

3. Detroit (46-36)--The Pistons showed how well they can play in their tough playoff series against Boston last season. Isiah Thomas is the league’s best true point guard, Vinnie Johnson can score in bunches--ask Boston--and Kelly Tripucka is a good offensive player who’d give you a blank stare if asked to define the word defense. Bill Laimbeer and Rick Mahorn give the Pistons bulk and rebounding.

Again, defense is Detroit’s weakness and it will prevent the Pistons from cracking the conference final.

4. Milwaukee (59-23)--Consummate overacheivers, the Bucks seemingly don’t have the talent to challenge Boston and Philadelphia. But they have Don Nelson as a coach and they make better use of what they have than do most teams.

Terry Cummings and Sidney Moncrief are the stars, but small forward-big guard Paul Pressey is just as important to the Bucks’ success. Barring late moves, Craig Hodges is the starting point guard and Alton Lister the center. Those positions are weaknesses, and that’s why Nelson was voted Coach of the Year last season.

But until the Bucks acquire a center who is superior to Lister, Paul Mokeski or Randy Breuer, they also won’t beat Boston or Philadelphia.

TWO TEAMS THAT WON’T MAKE IT TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

1. Philadelphia (58-24)--It has been suggested that the 76ers are too old to challenge seriously for the NBA title. They’re old but still talented.

Julius Erving will soon be 35, Bobby Jones is 34, and Moses Malone is 30 but playing older. However, new coach Matt Goukas is young. So is second-year man Charles Barkley, the big small forward. And rookie forward Terry Catledge will play a lot.

Even though Philadelphia always seems on the verge of internal warfare--it has started already, with guard Clint Richardson being sent to Indiana after asking to be traded--they will make it back to the Eastern Conference final against Boston out of force of habit, if nothing else.

2. Houston (48-34)--Twin towers Ralph Sampson and Akeem Olajuwon will have played together for two seasons by playoff time and will be more consistent. Together with 6-8 small forward Rodney McCray, they give the Rockets a powerful front line. Maybe as soon as this season, it will be the best in basketball.

It is in the backcourt that the Rockets will fizzle. John Lucas, 32, is the point guard. Considering Lucas’ long struggle with drugs, he will have to prove that he is reliable. Lewis Lloyd is the off-guard, and he is often off his game. Rookie Steve Harris will back up Lucas and Lloyd.

No matter how dominating the twin towers become, the Rockets won’t unseat the Lakers in the Western Conference until they greatly improve their backcourt and bench.

THE FINALISTS

1. The Lakers (62-20)--One reason that champions have not repeated in the last 16 years is that they’ve chosen to stay with the same team that won the championship the season before.

Not so the Lakers. With the addition of enforcer Maurice Lucas and first-round draft pick A.C. Green, and the deletion of Bob McAdoo and Jamaal Wilkes, many believe the Lakers are better than they were last season.

Riley has managed to change a successful team without disturbing its chemistry. Of course, the core of the Lakers is the same: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, James Worthy, Byron Scott, Michael Cooper, Kurt Rambis, et al.

2. Boston (63-19)--The Celtics have changed a great team for the better, too. A supposedly healthy and driven Bill Walton will give the Celtics three excellent interchangeable big men--Robert Parish, Kevin McHale and Walton--to go with Larry Bird, the NBA’s best player.

The condition of Bird’s arthritic elbow and sore back is a concern, but Bird is still great, even when he’s not entirely healthy.

Dennis Johnson and Danny Ainge will again be in the backcourt, and they’ll be backed up by newcomers Jerry Sichting, from the Pacers, and Sam Vincent, the first-round choice. Another newcomer who will see some action is forward Sly Williams.

Boston, in short, should be better and hungrier to win than last season.

AND THE WINNER IS . . .

It is Game 7 of the championship series at the Forum--the Lakers will finish with the NBA’s best regular-season record--and the score is tied with only seconds to play.

In a series that has included the usual fights and technical fouls, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar shakes off Robert Parish at the baseline and takes a pass from Magic Johnson. Abdul-Jabbar pivots to the right, the ball elevated above his head. He hoists a sky hook that finds nothing but net.

The Lakers win the NBA title--again.