Iraq Bracing for Big Iran Offensive : Attack North of Basra Is Most Likely, Diplomats Believe

Military commanders are bracing for what they expect to be a major Iranian military offensive in the next few days, according to Western diplomats here.

Military analysts said the Iranians appeared likely to attack within the next week if they hope to capitalize on gains they achieved by capturing Al Faw, a one-time oil port, in an offensive that began Feb. 10.

Iranian troops in Al Faw are slowly being strangled by three columns of Iraqi troops that have been steadily advancing on the town in recent days. If the Iraqis retake Al Faw, according to the diplomats, the Iraqi troops now deployed in the Faw Peninsula will be free to be used elsewhere.

Iran’s Best Course

“The only plan which makes any sense is for the Iranians to attack while the Iraqis have so many troops tied up in the recapture of Al Faw,” said a military analyst here.

The diplomats appear to believe that the next Iranian attack will come in the area of the Hawizah marshes north of Basra, Iraq’s second-largest city.

The Iranians have concentrated more than 10 divisions--more than 100,000 men--on the Hawizah front, according to the diplomats.

They noted that the Iranians favor periods around public holidays for their significant military action, and Friday marked the start of Now Rooz, the Persian new year. The February attack, which the Iranians dubbed the Dawn 8 offensive, was timed to coincide with the seventh anniversary of Iran’s Islamic revolution.

Five Years of Fighting

The war began in September, 1980, when Iraqi forces attacked Iran in a dispute over the Shatt al Arab, a 120-mile-long estuary that divides the two countries. The Shatt al Arab, formed by the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, is Iraq’s only outlet to the Persian Gulf.

Iran has made the ouster of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein a major precondition to any talks on settling the 5 1/2-year-old war.

One indication that the Iraqis are expecting a major new Iranian thrust was a sharp increase in air raids reported by Baghdad against rear-line positions near the Iranian city of Ahvaz, about 350 miles southwest of Tehran.

Iraqi news accounts spoke of destroying 500 Iranian tanks near Ahvaz last Monday. While Western military analysts discount the reported size of the raids and the successes claimed, they believe that the reports accurately reflect the areas targeted by the Iraqis.

Diplomats here believe that Iran has lost up to 30,000 men killed in action since the latest offensive began. They put Iraqi casualties at between 10,000 and 15,000.

Iranians Well Entrenched

With an estimated 30,000 Iranians dug in around Al Faw for more than a month, the process of displacing them has become painfully slow and is likely to get tougher, according to the analysts.

“Advances are being measured in tens of yards rather than the kilometers the Iraqis are claiming,” a Western military analyst remarked.

The Iraqis apparently hope to continue using a strategy of standing off from the targeted area and leveling it with artillery fire and aerial bombardment, a process that keeps Iraqi casualties relatively low.

On the other hand, the Iranians, who lack the Iraqis’ sophisticated weapons, are inflicting most of the Iraqi casualties by human wave assaults.

“The Iraqis are like a boxer with long arms,” observed one diplomat. “He is trying to keep back while letting the Iranians have it. The Iranians are scrappier and want to get in close where they can really pummel the Iraqis.”

Few Prisoners Taken

The Iranians lost about 30,000 dead during an offensive in the Hawizah marshes in 1985. At the same time, the Iraqis took only 200 Iranian prisoners, an indication of the devastating nature of the Iraqi firepower.

According to diplomats here, the Iranians have greatly improved their positions in the marshes in the intervening year, building roads and supply dumps and bringing up artillery. They also seem to have vastly increased their air defense capability against the overwhelming strength of the Soviet- and French-supplied Iraqi air force.

The Iraqis have also bolstered their defenses near the marshes, stripping the land of weeds and building embankments that will allow them to deploy their superior tanks and artillery.

Near Al Faw

On the southern front, one diplomat said, the Iraqis have now advanced to a point about four miles north of Al Faw on the Shatt al Arab and about six miles west of the town on huge salt flats.

Thus, the Iraqis have been able to begin unleashing their destructive capability directly on Al Faw, and the Iranians must fear that the town will be lost soon, according to analysts in Baghdad.

“Even Iran can’t afford to lose another 30,000 men with nothing to show for it,” noted a diplomat. “They have to attack in the marshes. The only variable seems to be the date--they are trying to keep the Iraqis off guard for as long as possible.”