State Senate Elections: It May Become a GOP Year

Democrats, defending 16 of the 20 state Senate seats at stake in the Nov. 4 election and beset by political problems, acknowledge that this may be a good year for Republicans to strengthen their numbers.

“Probabilities being what they are, I suspect that Republicans will pick up one seat,” conceded Senate Majority Leader Barry Keene (D-Benicia).

Republicans, however, figure that Democrats may lose as many as three seats.

No one from either party, though, is suggesting that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the fall elections. Democrats now outnumber Republicans 26 to 14.

At least two new faces are guaranteed in the Upper House next year.

Two veteran Democrats are leaving--Sen. Walter Stiern of Bakersfield, the dean of the Legislature, who is retiring from politics, and Sen. John Foran of San Francisco, who will become a lobbyist. Hotly contested elections have developed in both their districts.

In addition, four Democratic incumbents have been targeted for defeat by state GOP leaders.

Only four Republican seats are at risk in the election, and Democrats appear to be concentrating on only one of them.

Thorny Political Problem

One of the thorniest political problems for Democrats is the potential side effects of the confirmation election of state Supreme Court Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird, an appointee of ex-Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. with deep political ties to Democrats. With polls showing Bird to be in trouble with voters because of her decisions overturning death-penalty cases, Democrats supporting her could be hurt, too.

Another is the gubernatorial reelection campaign of Republican Gov. George Deukmejian, and the governor’s battle with Senate Democrats over their refusal to approve a new state prison that he wants to build near downtown Los Angeles.

Republicans went into the elections expecting Deukmejian to be popular enough to defeat his Democratic opponent, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, and hoping that he would have long enough coattails to help GOP legislative candidates in their campaigns. But Deukmejian promised even more help after Senate Democrats blocked his prison plan.

The governor already has been to several districts to help GOP Senate candidates raise money, and has more fund-raising visits planned.

On another front, Republicans have mounted aggressive voter registration drives, signing up 450,000 new GOP voters since the last election, including 17,000 in the first week of September. Party strategists believe that the new Republican voters will make a difference in several districts.

Keene wouldn’t predict which of the six contested seats he thinks Democrats may lose, nor would GOP leaders be specific about which districts they believe they have the best shot at taking. Party leaders on both sides are still in the process of developing fall election strategies, they said.

Several races could cost the two parties up to $1 million each.

Some candidates began expensive television advertising campaigns shortly after Labor Day--early for Senate races--and will stay on the air until the election.

Republicans believe that the high cost of the campaigns may be the Democrats’ biggest problem.

Sen. John Seymour (R-Anaheim), the GOP Caucus chairman, said Senate President Pro Tem David A. Roberti (D-Los Angeles) must come up with the money to finance most of the campaigns. “He is going to be spread so thin that I don’t think financially he’ll be able to stretch far enough,” Seymour said.

The beleaguered Roberti is leading the fight to keep the prison away from the Eastside Los Angeles area.

Rent-Control Issue

In addition, he has angered elements of the housing industry with his continued opposition to legislation aimed at watering down tough local rent-control laws. Realtors, landlords and others threatened retaliation after Roberti blocked the last effort to enact a measure relaxing rent controls, but so far the threatened opposition has not developed. Republicans are counting on it, though.

“Roberti didn’t make them happy. We feel they are very unhappy with David and we expect them to show it,” Sen. James W. Nielsen (R-Rohnert Park) said.

Roberti said on Friday that he hopes that anger over rent control will be outweighed by many votes Democrats have cast that benefit developers and the housing industry. Overall, he contended, Democrats have been better for the real estate industry than have Republicans.

Roberti also said that polls show Democrats to be leading or running even in all their races.

But the Democratic leader said he would be “happy” to lose just one seat, and “thrilled” to maintain the Democrats’ 26-14 edge.

Most Expensive Campaigns

Among the most expensive races will be the battle for Stiern’s 16th Senate District. The district was gerrymandered during the last reapportionment so that its political boundaries now extend from Kern County agricultural communities north of Bakersfield all the way down into Pasadena, where it includes some heavily Democratic precincts.

Assemblyman Don Rogers (R-Bakersfield) was considered the favorite going into the campaign because of past victories in legislative races. But he is getting a strong challenge from Kern Community College Chancellor Jim Young, a political novice whose folksy style helped him win a tough Democratic primary fight.

Both began running television ads shortly after Labor Day.

Republicans also believe that they have a good chance in Sacramento’s suburban 6th District, where state Sen. Leroy Greene (D-Carmichael) faces a challenge from Sacramento County Supervisor Sandy Smoley, a well-known local Republican.

Singled Out for Defeat

Greene, although he has made several votes in support of the Los Angeles prison, did not give Deukmejian one particularly key vote and the governor has singled him out as one of the Democrats he’d like to defeat.

Another tough race for Democrats is in the 12th District, which stretches from Stockton in the San Joaquin Valley to the Silicon Valley south of San Francisco Bay. There, freshman Sen. Dan McCorquodale (D-San Jose) faces Santa Clara County Supervisor Tom Legan, a moderate Republican. Republicans have conducted private polls showing that McCorquodale still is largely unknown to three-quarters of the voters in his district.

Republicans also believe that they have a chance against Democratic leader Keene, a liberal who supports Bird’s reelection to the Supreme Court. Keene’s GOP opponent, Solano County Supervisor Richard Brann, is hitting the incumbent hard over his support of Bird, and Republican leaders believe that Keene is out of step with most voters in the North Coast 2nd District on the Bird issue.

‘I Can’t Take the Chance’

Keene said he does not believe that he is in any jeopardy. But he acknowledged he may have to spend $300,000 to $400,000 to fight off Brann’s challenge. “It’s a lot more than I want to, but I can’t take the chance of being upset,” he said.

The other incumbent that Republicans are making a run at is Sen. Gary K. Hart (D-Santa Barbara) in the 18th District, which runs along the coast from Santa Barbara County to Malibu. Hart’s Republican opponent, DeWayne Holmdahl, a Santa Barbara County supervisor, won more votes than Hart in Santa Barbara County during the June primary when neither candidate faced opposition in their respective primaries.

Though GOP registration is relatively strong in Santa Barbara, Republicans consider Hart a very tough opponent, conceding that he is well-known and well-liked in his district.

Out of the Running

Republicans are out of the running in the sixth hotly contested Senate election, the race for Foran’s open 8th District seat in San Francisco and San Mateo counties. But they could still benefit. That possibility arises because of the strong campaign being waged by a politically prominent independent, San Francisco County Supervisor Quentin L. Kopp.

Democrats are backing Assemblyman Louis J. Papan (D-Millbrae), a veteran Democratic leader in the Assembly. Both candidates have polls showing them running well, and most observers consider the race a toss-up.

The Republican incumbent who is getting most of the Democratic attention is GOP leader Nielsen.

Democrats concede that defeating Nielsen is a long shot because of the Republican tilt of the 4th District, which includes all or parts of seven Northern California counties. But Democratic attorney Franklin S. Cibula is already running saturation-type radio advertising attacking Nielsen, and Democrats think that Nielsen may be pressured to put on more of a campaign than he expected.

“Our polling shows we are going to have a very interesting race,” Roberti said.