Analysis : Only One Wild-Card Team Seems Ready to Play

The teams that have reached the Super Bowl in the last 20 years have usually had four advantages, according to Bill Walsh.

Speaking as a frequent postseason competitor, Walsh, who has coached the San Francisco 49ers for eight years, said the requirements are good defense, good quarterbacking, good health, and the home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Only two of the 10 teams in the National Football League playoffs have won a guarantee that they can keep playing at home if they keep winning.

These are the NFC’s New York Giants and the AFC’s Cleveland Browns, who, accordingly, are favored by many to meet in the Super Bowl Jan 25 at the Rose Bowl.

But the advantage of performing on a friendly field before a friendly crowd may also be a factor Sunday in the two wild-card games that open the playoffs. The first round:

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) at New York Jets (10-6), 9:30 a.m., Ch. 4.

Rams (10-6) at Washington Redskins (12-4), 1 p.m., Ch. 2.

Does the Eastern trip worry the Rams? They’ve had a history of losing Eastern playoff games that goes back to 1950, when, on a cold winter day, they began the streak with a loss to the Browns in Cleveland.

“Nothing can be an excuse for not doing well,” John Robinson said this week.

The Rams’ 13th coach since 1946, Robinson had also said last week: “We’re always healthy.”

Of course they aren’t. But Robinson sets the tone on this team, and as he said: “It doesn’t rain on the Rams. It doesn’t snow. You don’t have five guys hurt, you have 40 guys healthy. Our obligation is to be ready.”

The Ram problem is that the Redskins are also a sound team. They figure to be in the game of the day.

The question of the morning game is whether either side can win. The Chiefs haven’t shown anything except a little special-teams savvy. The Jets haven’t shown anything since Nov. 16, the week before their present five-game losing streak began.

Even so, the country will be paying attention Sunday. In this league, these are two things that set the playoffs apart from the regular season:

--Each game gets the undivided attention of football fans. There’s nothing else to dial in.

--Each game ends the season for somebody. This is a single-elimination tournament.

The NFL scene today:

The Rams

One of the best balanced teams in the league, the Rams seemingly have enough of everything now that they’ve got a quarterback, Jim Everett, though Everett is somewhat less experienced than the third-year pro in Washington, Jay Schroeder.

The Rams, however, didn’t play a tough 1986 schedule. For most of the season, they were matched with second-division teams and other losers before catching the slumping Jets and sliding Cowboys.

So, in their last two starts against Miami and San Francisco, the Rams weren’t quite braced for two hot teams with hot quarterbacks, Dan Marino and Joe Montana.

What’s more, the Ram ace, Eric Dickerson, is apparently evolving into a different kind of runner. He seldom breaks the big one. Only two Dickerson runs this year have measured more than 27 yards--the two against Tampa Bay for 42 and 40.

Speed used to be Dickerson’s bag. Now it’s power and durability. His career average was 4.9 yards per carry in previous seasons; this season he averaged 4.5.

“A speed guy is one who doesn’t carry the ball much,” Robinson said. “The good running backs like Walter Payton wind up having to run with power. Anyhow, you seldom see any back out in the open any more except on the 11 o’clock news.”

Still, it was more fun in the old days when, occasionally, you could expect to see Dickerson out there at 2:30 or 3.

The Redskins

This is Redskin running back Kelvin Bryant’s first year in the league. While he is recovering from a bruised kidney and is expected to play Sunday, his legs haven’t taken the NFL hits that Dickerson’s have. He still has the breakaway speed that a defense must contend with. And there’s a power guy there, too, George Rogers.

So, conceivably, the Redskins can bring up more firepower with Schroeder, Rogers and Bryant than the Rams can summon with Everett, Dickerson and Barry Redden--but it’s close.

The Redskins, like the Rams, slumped in early December, losing two straight to the Giants and Broncos. But after Coach Joe Gibbs’ halftime tantrum last week, the Redskins righted the ship and came from behind to win their season-ender against Philadelphia.

“We needed this one to get momentum for the playoffs,” Gibbs said.

Indeed, a difference between Sunday’s opponents is that the Redskins are going in with a win and the Rams with two losses. That can make a psychological difference.

As for Schroeder, he started fast this year, but he apparently hasn’t made the expected progress since midseason. He has a big, open throwing motion that makes him vulnerable to a fast rush.

There are some reservations about the young Ram quarterback, too. At 6-5, Everett may be too tall to play quarterback in the approved NFL way, which combines crispness, quickness and smoothness--though he does have a quick release.

Defensively, the Rams are the stronger team. That may dissolve some of the Redskins’ hometown edge.

The Chiefs

Coach John Mackovic’s team is the strangest in the playoffs. Offensively, the Chiefs are the league’s 28th best team, having made little headway with either Todd Blackledge or Bill Kenney at quarterback. And defensively, they’ve proved vulnerable to big plays despite the fame of their secondary.

What the Chiefs do is win with their special teams--which is a new way to get this far. Although, over the years, other kicking-game coaches have been successful--George Allen, Bud Grant and Don Shula to name three--they were all established winners who also had other tools.

As a rule of thumb, a big special-teams play--such as a blocked punt or a long punt return--is the opposing coach’s mistake. Few savvy teams give up undue yardage or points to kicking specialists. Most playoff coaches are pretty savvy. It seems unlikely that the Chiefs will last much longer.

The Jets

The Chiefs’ edge is that the Jets haven’t been much to beat lately.

The Jets, what’s more, had some good luck earlier when they started 10-1, including a stretch of games against Buffalo, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Atlanta. They might not have been as good as their record.

They’ve been worse, however, since losing their defensive line, Mark Gastineau, Joe Klecko and Marty Lyons, a month ago.

This seemed to put more pressure on quarterback Ken O’Brien than he could live with. Feeling that he had to make almost every pitch perfect, O’Brien wound up making most throws bad. Result: Five Jet losses in a row.

If O’Brien gets Gastineau back--in form--this week, that might help. On the other hand, it might be too late.

The NFC

The consensus seems to be that the NFC’s three division champions are the three best teams in the league. They are the New York Giants (14-2), Chicago Bears (14-2) and San Francisco 49ers (10-5-1).

Most critics put the Rams and Washington up there with the Giants, Bears and 49ers in the NFL’s top five--leaving the AFC’s best teams to argue over who’s No. 1 in the second five.

That could be the Seattle Seahawks, who aren’t even in the playoffs.

In next weekend’s NFC games, the 49ers or Redskins will be at Chicago on Jan. 3 and the Rams or 49ers will play the Giants in New Jersey on Jan. 4.

The favorites in any case will be the Bears and Giants--though many critics aren’t sold on quarterbacks Doug Flutie of the Bears and Phil Simms of the Giants.

Joe Montana of the 49ers is the most experienced and probably the most reliable quarterback in the playoffs. And it was Montana who led the 49ers to 17-0 halftime lead in a recent loss to the Giants.

The AFC

It was a veteran quarterback named Steve Grogan who finally pumped some life into the dying AFC Monday night, out-passing Dan Marino to drive the New England Patriots (11-5) into the playoffs as one of the three division champions in his conference.

The others are the 11-5 Denver Broncos, who staggered all over the Rockies this season, starting 6-0 and finishing 5-5, and the 12-4 Cleveland Browns, but most of the excitement generated for them comes from their coaches and mothers.

In first-round AFC games, either the Chiefs or Jets will be at Cleveland on Jan. 3 and the Patriots at Denver on Jan. 4.

The Browns and Patriots are going in as the AFC’s hottest playoff teams--but not hottest team. The hottest is Seattle, perhaps the best team in the league at this moment.

Among others, the Seahawks beat the Giants recently, suggesting that they could have done it again in the Super Bowl.

The club that Coach Chuck Knox describes as his finest ever came together one day too late this year, the November day it lost its fourth straight. It was that kind of year in the NFL.