Nobody Loves a Leader

It is not even 1987 yet, but Republicans already are playing the Front-Runner game as they jockey for position in the 1988 presidential sweepstakes.

Vice President George Bush long has been considered the early front-runner for the 1988 GOP nomination to succeed Ronald Reagan as President. But now, with Bush embroiled in the Iran arms imbroglio, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole has been awarded front-runner status on the basis of a poll conducted in Iowa, where the 1988 caucuses will inaugurate the formal nomination process.

That was fine with Bush. He claimed that it is better not to be the front-runner anyway. Back in early 1980 Bush was the happy front-runner, but got clobbered by Ronald Reagan in New Hampshire. It was downhill for Bush after that.

Another potential candidate, Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.), claims that Bush still is the front-runner. Dole enjoyed a temporary blip because he has been on TV a lot lately, Kemp said. Kemp is not the front-runner now, and does not want to be. But he would like to be on television more, and is anxious not to be a back-runner for too long.

No one wants to be a front-runner this early, because then everyone else would be gunning for him. Front-runner status also tends to magnify any tactical errors that the candidate might make. Walter F. Mondale suffered from chronic front-runneritis in the 1984 primaries. Gary Hart now is considered the Democratic front-runner, but is in the Colorado mountains trying to retire the debt from his 1984 campaign, in which he was the front-runner-up.

Political observers must get used to this, because this is the first election since 1968 in which neither party has an incumbent President running. There will be lots of runners on both sides, and the starting line is almost in sight.