THE FORECAST FROM ABC--WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR

Even though ABC finished a distant third in the prime-time ratings for the 1986-87 season, and even though the May ratings reflected the worst performance of any network in Nielsen “sweeps” history, representatives of its affiliate stations remain cautiously optimistic that the network may slowly be making its way up from the bottom.

Some of the station executives attending the network’s three-day conference, which ended Thursday at the Century Plaza Hotel, were admittedly bitter. An affiliate joke making the rounds: “What’s the difference between ABC and the Titanic? The Titanic had entertainment when it went down.”

Still, most of them indicated that, despite their frustrations, they would continue to support ABC, and at least a few expressed the view that the network has a chance to move into the No. 2 slot next season.

Many said that they expected that a positive influence from the network’s merger last year with Capital Cities Communications, which they called a “station-oriented” company, would begin to assert itself in the fall.

“This year was pretty much cast before Cap Cities took over,” said Jim Matthews of TAK Communications, owner of five ABC affiliates. “Next year, they’ll really be able to strut their stuff.”

“I’d call it a semi-dour mood here,” one of the less cheerful affiliates, Henry Urick, program manager of KOVR-TV in Sacramento, said after a Tuesday screening of two new fall shows--the comedy “Full House” (which few seemed to like) and “Buck James,” a medical drama starring Dennis Weaver (which they seemed to like more).

“I’d like to see more commitment to improvement in the schedule, but so far I haven’t seen that,” Urick continued, unhappily nursing a drink in the lobby of the hotel. “I don’t look to see ABC turning the corner in the fall from what I’ve seen. Right now, CBS and NBC have all the momentum.”

But, Urick added, “My station supports the network, and we continue to give it good (program) clearances. We support the network, and we hope that it continues to support us.”

Of the May sweeps results, Dave Salinger, director of marketing for WPRI-TV of Providence, R.I., said, “It hurt. It hurt us real bad. Everyone is expressing their disappointment and concern, and trying to gauge the network’s reaction to that concern.”

Nevertheless, Urick, Salinger and others said that they had not heard any rumblings about stations seeking to change their affiliation from ABC to another network--although “the network is worried sick” about the possibility, according to Walter McDowell, director of creative services for WFTV in Orlando.

Although the network is No. 3 in prime time nationally, many ABC affiliate stations still enjoy a No. 1 or No. 2 position in their own markets. “There’s concern, but I don’t think anybody’s ready to bail out,” Salinger said.

George H. Newi, senior vice president in charge of affiliate relations for the ABC-TV network, said that the network had no worries about possible defections. “Affiliation changes are very rare; it’s a very dislocating thing,” he said. “One or two seasons at the bottom doesn’t mean people start changing.”

Newi said that he thinks most affiliates believe ABC won’t be last for long: “I think in general they’re upbeat about the schedule. They have a few real questions about the schedule, but overall I think they expect to see improvement.”

Although no one expressed an intention to jump ship, some station officials were vocal about their dissatisfaction with ABC’s decision to radically cut the compensation fees paid for airing network programming at 15 to 20 of its more than 200 affiliates. Most of those affected are small- and medium-sized stations that the network contended were receiving disproportionately high compensation.

Officials from one of the stations being cut, WTOK-TV of Charlotte, N.C., protested by refusing to attend the conference.

ABC’s Newi called the compensation-cutting issue an “old story,” since the network reached individual agreements with some stations months ago. However, other station representatives said that they were still negotiating with ABC on the issue.

“We’re not happy, of course,” said Duane Triplett, president of KIMO-TV in Anchorage, Alaska, one of the victims of recent compensation cuts. Yet he believes ABC’s policy is flexible enough to allow continuing negotiation for a better deal: “The partnership relationship between the network and the station usually doesn’t just stop on any given day.”

Aside from the continuing saga of compensation fees, affiliate representatives had other issues on their minds--the biggest of which was ABC’s decision to move one of its few well-established programs, the successful news magazine “20/20,” from Thursday to Friday nights this fall.

“I just don’t know if the ‘20/20’ audience is home on Friday nights,” protested Bill Dunhamel, general manager of Rapid City station KOTA and a member of the affiliate board.

Few seemed to accept ABC Entertainment president Brandon Stoddard’s reasoning for what he called the network’s “most difficult scheduling decision”--that the loyal “20/20” audience would be willing to follow the show to Friday.

The affiliates came to the conference up in arms about a network decision to eliminate from “Monday Night Football” both a local advertising spot and a two-minute “window” at half time for local news. ABC calmed them down by offering to reconsider the affiliates’ request to retain the time.

But the affiliates’ most compelling reason for coming to Los Angeles was to see the new prime-time shows (and to gauge whether the strength of the new programming could counteract what they considered to be the network’s mysterious decisions to renew the low-rated “The Charmings” and to put “Sledge Hammer” up against NBC’s top-rated “Cosby Show” on Thursday nights). Even when successful local news and syndicated programming puts an ABC affiliate station on top in its market despite the poor network showing, it still looks to prime time as the best place to promote those other shows.

While they came away encouraged, they were still aware of who was No. 1. Said WPRI’s Salinger ruefully: “If I could buy a spot for our local news on (NBC’s) ‘Cosby,’ I would.”