The Times Poll : 64% Oppose Raising Taxes to Cut Deficit

By GEORGE SKELTON

Nov. 5, 1987 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

American voters are sending an emphatic message that they overwhelmingly oppose a tax increase despite rising concern in Washington and on Wall Street over the federal deficit, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

That message comes at a time when White House and congressional negotiators are agonizing over a deficit reduction plan, and while presidential candidates are cautiously tiptoeing around the issue.

Actually, the voters seem to be as perplexed as the politicians are about how to significantly reduce the rising federal budget deficit, a feat most economists believe is necessary to restore confidence in the stock market, the U.S. dollar and the nation’s economy generally.

Nearly two-thirds of the people surveyed (64%)--Democrats, Republicans and independents alike--said they oppose “raising taxes in order to make substantial reductions in the budget deficit.” But neither do most people support cuts in federal spending, thus offering few guidelines for their elected representatives to follow in shaping a deficit-reduction plan.

Only a third of those interviewed (32%) favor cuts in the defense budget. And even fewer, less than one-fourth (23%), advocate trims in domestic programs.

As for the budding 1988 presidential campaign, the nationwide telephone survey of 2,463 adults conducted last Thursday through Monday found the Rev. Jesse Jackson still leading the Democratic pack, supported by a constituency composed of 57% blacks, 38% whites and 5% Latinos and Asians.

In all, Jackson is backed by 20% of those eligible to vote in the Democratic primaries and caucuses, followed by Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, 13%; Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., 11%; Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, 10%; Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, 7%, and former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt 2%. Twenty-seven percent were undecided and 10% said they wouldn’t vote for any candidate in this field.

Jackson Needs Big Turnout

Jackson’s fate in the primaries, however, will depend largely on the size of voter turnouts. This survey showed, for example, that if only a quarter of the voting-age population turns out--which was the nationwide average in 1980--Jackson’s lead could disappear, with Dukakis moving in front by three percentage points over Jackson, four over Simon and six over Gore.

In the South, where virtually all states hold primaries on Super Tuesday, March 8, Jackson leads Gore by six percentage points and Dukakis by 16 among eligible voters. Here, Jackson is running ahead among likely voters in a typical turnout--by five points over Gore, 12 over Gephardt and 14 over Dukakis.

Bush Has Big Lead

In the Republican race, Vice President George Bush is leading his nearest rival, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, by more than 2 to 1 among those eligible to vote in the GOP primaries and caucuses. The standings: Bush, 47%; Dole, 22%; New York Rep. Jack Kemp, 8%; former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr., 6%; former television evangelist Pat Robertson, 5%, and former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV, 2%. The other 10% basically were undecided.

The margin of error for this size survey is 3% in either direction.

Times Poll Director I. A. Lewis said the survey illustrates that the recent stock market crash has not yet significantly affected how voters feel about the various presidential candidates. Nor do most people see a direct connection between the red ink of the federal Treasury and their own pocketbooks, Lewis said.

Abstract Problem

Voters apparently view the deficit as merely a problem in the abstract, a dilemma that does not affect them personally, despite its potential chain reaction impact on financial markets, foreign currency, consumer confidence and, ultimately, American jobs.

On the one hand, two-thirds of the public (69%) acknowledge that the budget deficit is, at the very least, a “serious problem.” And it was cited as “the single most important issue” raised so far in the presidential campaign. In fact, either the deficit or the economy was chosen as the most important issue by two-thirds of those surveyed, out-polling such topics as nuclear arms control, escalating U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf and foreign trade.

Indeed, the prospect of uncontrolled deficits or further stock plunges ranks high on the public’s list of “most serious threats to the nation’s economy,” being exceeded only by a rise in unemployment.

But, when asked to cite “the most serious threat” to their own “personal financial situation,” the deficit and stock market are scarcely mentioned. Heading the voters’ list of most serious threats to them personally is “higher taxes,” followed by inflation and job layoffs.

The only presidential candidates currently pushing a tax increase are Jackson and Babbitt. The other Democrats basically do not rule out a tax hike but are not advocating one either. Republicans generally have lined up against higher taxes.

Some Benefit for Dole

If any candidate benefits from the stock crash, it may be Dole. Among the 44% of Republicans who say the volatile market makes them feel “doubtful about the future,” Dole cuts Bush’s lead by half, trailing by 13 points instead of 25. Dole, the Senate minority leader, is one of the congressmen negotiating with the White House in an effort to devise a deficit reduction plan.

The stock plunge apparently has begun to tarnish “Reaganomics.” When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way President Reagan “is handling the nation’s economy,” those surveyed approved slightly, 45% to 43%. But last February, in a similar Times Poll, people approved of Reagan’s management of the economy by a solid 53% to 41%.

Reagan’s overall job rating, however, has not significantly changed and stands at 53% approval to 37% disapproval. That is because his reputation in foreign affairs has improved, presumably because the Iran-Contra scandal is beginning to fade from memory and the President is on the verge of concluding a nuclear arms agreement with Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev.

People interviewed in this survey approved of Reagan’s handling of foreign affairs by 51% to 37%. Only last July, in a similar poll, people disapproved, 47% to 45%.

About two-thirds (65%) of those surveyed favor the expected arms pact. Only 13% oppose it.

Persian Gulf Policy

There is less support, however, for the U.S. policy of reflagging Kuwaiti oil tankers and escorting them with Navy warships through the Persian Gulf. Still, the policy does have a plurality of support, 42% to 24%, with 34% undecided.

In domestic politics, Bush clearly still is struggling to overcome what has been dubbed “the wimp factor.” The vice president is considered a “wimp” by more than 1 in 5 Republicans and 2 in 5 Democrats who were interviewed.

The survey found, however, that Dukakis’ image apparently was not tarnished among Democratic voters by the disclosure in September that his campaign manager had surreptitiously distributed a videotape that led to the demise of Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s presidential candidacy. Many political experts have speculated that the episode stalled Dukakis’ momentum, if not eroded his support.

But 95% of the Democrats interviewed said they had not heard of the incident or did not think it had damaged anyone politically or weren’t sure whom it had damaged. Only 4% believed it had hurt Dukakis.

THREATS TO ECONOMY AND PERSONAL FINANCES What is the most serious threat to the nation’s economy?

Unemployment 23%

Budget deficit 18%

Stock market decline 18%

Inflation 13%

Higher taxes 12%

Higher interest rates 10%

Not sure or refused 6% What is the most serious threat to your personal financial situation?

Higher taxes 28%

Inflation 23%

Unemployment 17%

Higher interest rates 15%