Time Bomb

Without the formality of a trial or even a chance to see the alleged evidence against them, four Palestinians accused by Israel of being among the “instigators and organizers” of riots in the occupied territories have been deported to southern Lebanon. Five other Palestinians face a similar fate. The four expellees are all natives of the West Bank, although Israel had earlier sought to blame “outside agitators” for the violent demonstrations that began more than a month ago. The United States, most Western countries and the International Red Cross have all made clear that they regard the deportations as a violation of international law and an abuse of human rights.

The expulsions will not, of course, by themselves halt the protests that have now taken at least 36 Palestinian lives and injured scores of Arab civilians and Israeli soldiers. Since Israel’s victory in the 1967 war gave it control over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, it has deported more than 1,000 of those whom it calls troublemakers. But its troubles, not surprisingly, have continued.

Sooner or later the current wave of Palestinian anger and frustration will subside, probably as much because of temporary emotional exhaustion as anything else. Inevitably, though, there will be a next wave, whatever Israel does to coerce passivity and cooperation. Among those current efforts is a round-the-clock curfew that keeps hundreds of thousands of Palestinians confined to their homes, sometimes for days at a time. The expulsions are supposed to deny the Palestinians real or potential leaders. The curfew has the much cruder purpose of subjecting entire communities to collective punishment.

Israeli leaders say that nothing can be done, no political initiatives can be considered, until order is restored. Undoubtedly that’s the case. Undoubtedly, too, a restoration of order will find the government in Jerusalem still hopelessly divided over what to do next in the occupied territories. Hardliners, headed by Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, refuse to consider any steps that might lessen Israel’s grip or diminish its claims. Moderates, headed by Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, continue to warn that time for constructive action is rapidly running out.

The time that is slipping away not only threatens to cost Israel an increasing loss of political sympathy in the West, but, worse, also shortens the fuse on a demographic time bomb that ticks away in the land between the Mediterranean and the River Jordan. In little more than a dozen years, according to official Israeli projections, the Arab population of the Gaza Strip will swell to 1 million. Commensurate growth will occur on the West Bank. What all this points to is a time early in the 21st Century when a majority of people in the region under Israeli control will be Arab. Thoughtful Israelis worry about what will happen then to their political and cultural survival.

Expelling five Arabs, or nine, or 1,000 or even 100,000 is no answer to the demographic problem. Israel contends, correctly, that it can’t be blamed for failing to find a feasible political solution when no responsible Arab leader has come forward to talk about such a solution. It also contends, accurately, that the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank has been of concern to other Arabs only to the extent that it can be exploited for narrow political gain. The truth of these claims, though, doesn’t diminish the truth that is Israel’s real burden. Its efforts to control a growing and increasingly hostile Arab population promises only to exact a growing and increasingly heavy moral and political cost. Somehow, in its own vital interests, Israel must find a way to free itself of that terrible burden.