New Robertson Backers on Hawaii GOP Rolls Put Bush, Dole to Test

Pat Robertson’s so-called invisible army has the “coconut wireless” humming with rumors of an evangelical coup in the Hawaii Republican Party caucuses, which are emerging as another key test in the GOP presidential race.

By flooding party rolls with thousands of new members in recent weeks, Robertson forces hope to pack the state’s Jan. 27 precinct caucuses to sew up not only Hawaii’s delegates but, more importantly, first place in a presidential preference poll being conducted that night.

That Republicans are paying any attention to Hawaii is surprising on several counts. For one, Hawaii has been staunchly Democrat since the earliest days of statehood. Democrats hold 80% of statewide offices and outnumber Republicans more than two to one.

Usually Left Out

In addition, by virtue of its isolation and small population, Hawaii usually finds itself left out of presidential politics altogether. The six-hour time difference between Hawaii and the East Coast often means Hawaiians wake up on election day to hear exit polls and cast their ballots knowing the race is pretty much settled already.

But this year the Hawaii GOP moved its caucuses to the front of the calendar and added a straw poll, the first of the campaign year. The poll will be non-binding on the delegates selected that night, who eventually will be winnowed to the 20 who will attend the Republican National Convention, but it’s bound to make headlines on the mainland.

As a result, Hawaii has become an early battleground for Bush, Robertson and Kansas Sen. Bob Dole. The other Republican contenders--former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV, New York Rep. Jack Kemp, and former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr.--are not competing.

“Normally, people give zip about Hawaii, but because the contest is so close and so heated, people will grab at any indicator,” said Howard Chong, the state GOP chairman.

Dole’s Initial Hopes

Dole had originally called attention to the vote here, hoping to demonstrate in Hawaii and in other early primary and caucus states that the well-financed and organized Bush campaign could be derailed.

But now Robertson hopes to pull off an upset that would hand Bush a setback while also invigorating his own forces, who need to ambush Republican regulars in Iowa and New Hampshire in similar fashion.

Dole forces, headed by Rep. Patricia Saiki, the state’s Republican congresswomen, are trying to rally to meet the threat. Dole’s wife, Elizabeth, visited the state last week, where she said at a news conference that Hawaii was “the gateway to the entire race.”

Bush’s wife, Barbara, plans to visit the state just a few days before the caucuses.

“Dole was the major faction in power when it began, but now it’s a horse race,” said Gayle Gardner, acting executive director of the Hawaii GOP. “It’s bringing some spirit back into the party.”

‘Born-Again’ Party Members

It’s also bringing into the party “born-again” beach bums, businessmen and scores of other “godly people, church-going people who have been waiting for the right man with godly character to run for office,” according to Victor Borgia, Robertson’s campaign coordinator here.

“We had a thousand yesterday, 600 the day before, and I’ve still got all these to turn in,” said Anne Peterson, office manager for Robertson campaign headquarters here, referring to newly enrolled Robertson Republicans. She opened a strongbox to show what appeared to be possibly another 1,000 party cards collected in a highly organized grass-roots campaign.

Although the other campaigns also are working to sign up new party members, Gardner estimates that 3,500 of roughly 4,000 recruits were sponsored by Robertson campaigners.

The number is significant considering the size of the state party.

When Gardner recently purged party rolls, membership plunged from about 20,000 to around 11,000, meaning that roughly half the card-carrying members had died, dropped out or moved away. The Democrats claim about 30,000 card carriers.

No More Paid Staff

While fund raisers recently put the Democrats in the black, the Republicans remain so deeply in debt that all paid staff--including the executive director--were laid off last month.

The sense of decay is also evident at GOP headquarters on Queen Emma Street, where volunteers fight gravity in broken chairs and wooden planks over cinder blocks serve as bookshelves. In a city where a good view is hard not to find, the dusty window looks out at another building and an asphalt parking lot. An unframed poster of Reagan is tacked to the wall, while a deflated blue balloon and a dying house plant finish out the decor.

When former state GOP executive director Jim Hall first proposed a straw poll back in 1981, “the party was at an all-time low,” he said. “But now it’s dipped even lower.”

“I saw the poll as a way of energizing the party,” he said.

Political observers feel Hawaii’s unique ethnic mix, die-hard Democratic tradition and special economic base of tourism, defense spending and agriculture make it an unreliable mirror of national Republican sentiment.

‘Not Like Mainland’

“It’s not like the Mainland,” said Dan Boylan, a political columnist and history professor at West Oahu College. “Here, you’ve got all the warps and woofs of local politics, things like ethnicity, location, outsiders versus locals. . . . “

At the same time, the party’s weakness and lack of organization make Hawaii “the perfect place for the Robertson people to . . . sneak right in there and walk away with it,” Boylan said.

The success of the Robertson strategy so far has sent shock waves rippling through Honolulu’s GOP Establishment.

Some party regulars, fearful of a Robertson upset, secretly tried to have the straw poll abandoned or at least postponed until after Super Tuesday, March 8, when 16 states hold primaries. Gardner said he and Chong quashed the plan. He said Dole and Bush supporters were not behind the effort, and he declined to name the Republicans who were.

May Obscure Poll’s Goals

But if Robertson sweeps to victory, the whole purpose of the straw poll may be lost, at least from the state party’s point of view, Hall said.

“They (the new party members) are mostly independents or Democrats supporting a candidate of their faith and not their party,” he said. “The poll could be a Robertson runaway, and the party doesn’t gain because those people will disappear and we’ll never see them again.”

Alternately, a permanent cadre of Robertson supporters could be harmful, said William Schneider, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and political analyst for The Times. “The danger is that they will stick around and instantly divide the party into warring camps of evangelicals and non-evangelicals,” he said. “It splits the party wide open.”

Staff From Rival Camps

Since the state party laid off its staff last month, volunteers from all three camps have been working elbow-to-elbow at GOP headquarters. Gardner said the atmosphere initially was acrimonious but has since lightened, even though someone plastered Dole stickers all over the filing cabinets.

Borgia promised that the Robertson recruits will “most definitely” show up in force for the caucuses, which in the past have been so poorly attended that some precinct captains have had to scrounge for delegates to send on to the state convention.

“How long they stay (working in the party) depends how you treat them,” Borgia said.