NATIONAL LEAGUE : Mets Look Better on Paper Than They Do in Print

Sensibilities would be offended throughout the National League if prognosticators were to dogmatically state that the New York Mets are by far the most talented team around and that no one else need bother mustering a challenge.

Yet, that sentiment has recently been expressed by many analysts, some of whom have Flushing Meadow business addresses. Despite last season’s hard fall from World Series champion to a division also-ran, it seems the notorious Met cockiness never has been stronger.

Manager Davey Johnson, who presides over an assemblage of major talents with egos to match, offered only a slightly tempered prediction this spring.

“We should win,” Johnson said. “We could dominate.”

And third baseman Howard Johnson gave this blunt assessment: “We’re just being realistic. Who has the horses we have? No one.”

Undeniably, the Mets have an impressive combination of strong pitching, productive hitting and depth in nearly every position. But they had it at this time last season, too, before they self-destructed amid numerous injuries--especially to the pitching staff--and the two-month loss of Dwight Gooden, who underwent drug rehabilitation treatment.

A return to health, performance and some semblance of order in the clubhouse--well, maybe just two of the three--should propel the Mets past the defending league champion St. Louis Cardinals and other National League rivals.

Some Mets already are battling each other off the field, in the wake of a magazine interview in which Darryl Strawberry severely criticized everyone from Davey Johnson to Gary Carter to Keith Hernandez. After the initial acrimony, the Mets just said they are ready to transfer their assault to opponents.

“On paper,” Davey Johnson said, “we easily have the best team.”

Dissenting opinions, however, have been expressed from various NL locales--St. Louis, Cincinnati, Montreal, San Francisco . . .

Buck Rodgers of the Expos could serve as a spokesman for the other NL East managers when he recently said: “Don’t you think it’s a little premature to give it to the Mets right now? We think the Mets have a great club, but they aren’t as good as the ’86 club. Remember, they are two years older. We feel we can compete with the Mets, and we’re not the only team that thinks that.”

Every manager in the East probably figures his club could win the West, which was weak last season. In fact, the records of the defending West champion Giants and second-place Reds would placed them no higher than fourth in the East.

Change in the league was pervasive during the off-season, especially in the West. The Reds and Dodgers went through the most roster purging and redevelopment and, as a result, they join the Giants and the Houston Astros as teams that consider themselves among the favorites.

The Giants, of course, have claimed squatter’s rights on first place, having simply outlasted the competition last fall in a bedraggled divisional race. They made the least amount of off-season moves, simply because they have the least amount of glaring deficiencies. Manager Roger Craig, whose club lost to the Cardinals in the playoffs after taking a 3 games to 2 lead, said a division title and getting close to the World Series will not be enough this season.

“We’re going all the way this year,” Craig said. “We came so close to the World Series. I look at our loss as a blessing. It’s the best thing that could’ve happened. We smelled the roses but didn’t pluck them.”

The Rose of Cincinnati, Red Manager Pete Rose, said that his team is ready to take a step forward after stagnating in second place the last three seasons.

“This is the best team I’ve had so far,” Rose said. “You’ve got to like our team. The reason I like it is, when you analyze the division, we have the least amount of question marks.”

Cincinnati perhaps made the biggest overhaul. The reason the Reds had been stalled in second place for so long was inexperience and a lack of starting pitching.

Time will lead to the maturation of young stars such as Eric Davis, Kal Daniels and Tracy Jones, but the Reds went the trading route for pitching. They lost slugger Dave Parker, but acquired pitchers Jose Rijo from the Oakland A’s and, in a separate deal, Danny Jackson from the Kansas City Royals. Plus, Mario Soto has shown signs of returning to form, nearly two years after rotator-cuff surgery.

“We must be doing something right, but not getting it all done,” Rose said referring to the second-place finishes. “But it’s all a part of growing up. We’ve learned from our mistakes. Now, I sit in my office and wonder how we could have finished second all those years.”

Just as managers in the East begrudge the Mets the division title, many in the West debunk the theory that teams in the East are superior.

“I definitely don’t agree with that,” Rose said. “In the East, you’ve got three or four teams that can win it. In the West, you’ve got the same thing. Roger and I think we can win. (Hal) Lanier (in Houston) thinks he can, and Tommy (Lasorda) thinks he can be more competitive. Then, you got Chuck Tanner (in Atlanta), who thinks he’ll be better. But he’d think that even if he started five Class-A players.”

The league has almost reached its nadir heading into this season. NL teams have lost four of the last five World Series, the Mets’ 1986 championship the only win, and the American League has produced most of the top rookies in recent years.

Several of the league’s longtime marquee names--Parker, Jack Clark, Bob Welch and Lee Smith--are in the American League, either via trade or free agency. Traditionalists are lamenting that even Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs, will have a new look--selected night games.

Even some familiar names have changed. Upon reporting to camp, Gooden announced that he wanted to forever more be called “Doc,” not Dwight. He said he wanted it to go along with his change of image. Not to be outdone, the Expos’ left fielder now is “Rock” Raines, not Tim.

Changes in the standings also seem forthcoming. A closer look at the division races:

WEST

1. CINCINNATI--Pitching and clubhouse harmony were all the Reds lacked last season, but it cost them the West title. Manager Pete Rose and Murray Cook, the new general manager, dealt with both problems by dealing during the winter meetings.

Before the winter meetings, the Reds traded promising shortstop Kurt Stillwell and pitcher Ted Power to Kansas City for Danny Jackson, coming off a 9-18 season. But his earned-run average was an average 4.02, and the Reds figure to score many more runs for him than Kansas City did.

At the winter meetings, Cook completed a trade that sent the 36-year-old Parker to Oakland for 22-year-old right-hander Rijo. Parker was bothered by knee problems last season and was accused by some of being one of the clubhouse problems.

Rijo is considered a top prospect, but he will start the season as a long reliever because the Reds have received surprising strong springs from returning starters. Cincinnati’s starting rotation will include left-hander Tom Browning, 10-13 last season; Dennis Rasmussen, acquired from the New York Yankees late last season by then General Manager Bill Bergesch; Ron Robinson, coming off arthroscopic elbow surgery over the winter; and Mario Soto, who was still struggling last season after undergoing rotator-cuff surgery during the 1986 season.

Soto’s resurgence has been the biggest surprise. This spring, he had a string of 25 consecutive outs and was 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA.

John Franco headlines a capable bullpen, which was overused last season because of inadequate starting pitching.

The Reds’ lineup includes Eric Davis, a possible triple-crown candidate if he remains healthy, and Kal Daniels, who may have a breakthrough season. Responsibility for Parker’s production will be handed to outfielders Tracy Jones and Paul O’Neill, who combined for 72 runs batted in despite limited playing time last season.

“Everyone asks who’s going to fill in for Parker, and it’s a legitimate question,” Rose said. “We’re going to miss his 25 to 30 home runs, certainly. But we’ll be better defensively and pitching-wise, and maybe we won’t need as many runs.”

2. SAN FRANCISCO--Some already have eliminated the Giants by invoking the champions-don’t-repeat theory, which hasn’t failed in the NL since both the Dodgers and Phillies won division titles in ’77 and ’78.

But it would be unwise to count out the Giants, whose roster basically remains intact. Manager Roger Craig and General Manager Al Rosen turned around a chronic loser in two seasons, but some backsliding could happen.

The biggest change is in center fielder, where the Giants parted with Chili Davis and signed Cleveland free agent Brett Butler, who will be the leadoff hitter. Butler will join an impressive outfield that includes Jeffrey Leonard, currently suffering from a thigh strain, and Candy Maldonado.

The infield remains intact, with Will Clark at first base, Robby Thompson at second base, Jose Uribe at shortstop, Kevin Mitchell at third base and Bob Brenly at catcher.

Just as at the start of last season, the Giants’ pitching is questionable.

Rick Reuschel, 38, pitched well after coming to the Giants in a midseason trade, but he has had shoulder problems. Mike Krukow, coming off a 5-6 season after winning 20 games in 1986, pitched well in spring training and hasn’t experienced renewed arm problems. Left-hander Dave Dravecky is still effective, but he, too, has a history of elbow problems. Kelly Downs was inconsistent, and Atlee Hammaker, who will start the season in the bullpen, is a perennial question mark because of arm trouble.

The Giants figure to be even more productive on offense than last season, providing they can stay clear of injuries. At various points last season, Leonard missed time with a bad wrist, Maldonado with a broken finger and Thompson with a chronic back condition.

“We’ll be better because of added confidence and maturity,” Craig said. “We added one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball. . . . We might not have the best players at every position, but we have the best 24.”

3. DODGERS--If you subscribe to Pete Rose’s theory of choosing the team that has the least amount of question marks, then this is where the Dodgers belong. Despite a dizzying array of off-season moves, the Dodgers’ defense, pitching (bullpen and starting rotation) and defense remains questionable. But with Kirk Gibson, Mike Davis, Pedro Guerrero, Mike Marshall and John Shelby in the same lineup, scoring runs shouldn’t be a problem.

If the Dodgers can overcome the loss of Welch in the rotation, if new shortstop Alfredo Griffin can make the defense a little less porous and if Jesse Orosco and Jay Howell can stabilize the bullpen, the Dodgers could move up a place or two in the West standings.

4. HOUSTON--Hal Lanier, the Astros’ manager, has said that he cannot detect much difference between his club and San Francisco and Cincinnati. Maybe Lanier is conveniently overlooking offensive statistics, where the Astros lagged. In the off-season, the Astros did little to improve run production. Houston won the West in 1986, partly because most of the Astro regulars had their best seasons. Last season, Glenn Davis’ average dropped to .251 though he still hit 27 home runs and drove in 93 runs, and outfielders Billy Hatcher (.296) and Kevin Bass (.284) hit well for average but could not carry the club.

Third base again will be a weakness, but the Astros have traded for veteran shortstop Rafael Ramirez. The offense will be built around the speed of Gerald Young, Bass and Bill Doran, coupled with Davis’ power.

Pitching, as usual, will be the Astros’ strength. Mike Scott was dominating for most of the season but tailed off in September. The Astros also have venerable Nolan Ryan, inconsistent Jim Deshaies, and Bob Knepper, who lost more than twice as many games as he won last season (8-17) and also lost many fans this spring after his controversial comments about female umpire Pam Postema. Joaquin Andujar returns to the NL as an Astro, and he will have much to prove.

5. SAN DIEGO--From June 5 until the middle of September, the Padres had the best record in the division. That is as much an indictment of the West as it as evidence of the Padres’ growth and maturity.

But if you take away their 12-39 start and the final two weeks of the season, San Diego played like a good, young team. The emphasis should be on youth. Led by rookie of the year Benito Santiago, the Padres have some of the best young position players in the league. They also have league batting champion Tony Gwynn, and the good hit-lousy fielding John Kruk and Chris Brown. Keith Moreland (27 home runs) was acquired from the Chicago Cubs in the Rich (Goose) Gossage trade.

Pitching, led by Ed Whitson and Eric Show, is a problem. But Manager Larry Bowa is hoping Lance McCullers will become the relief ace the club needs.

“I expect us to be competitive, and that’s pretty hard to say after losing 90 games,” said Chub Feeney, club vice president. “We have so many good young players. The problem is sorting them out.”

6. ATLANTA--Maybe owner Ted Turner should flash a warning before each Brave game shown on his superstation, TBS. Scenes from the following may be too brutal for young children. Parental guidance is suggested.

The Braves have Dale Murphy, and that’s about it. Ozzie Virgil had an unexpectedly productive season, with 27 home runs and 72 RBIs, and first baseman Gerald Perry had 74 RBIs. Other than that, the Braves are in trouble.

Pitching has been and will continue to be the Braves’ major problem. General Manager Bobby Cox’s decision to go with young pitchers might help the club in the future, but it sacrifices the present.

The starting rotation will consist of Rick Mahler (8-13), Zane Smith (15-10) and three rookies--right-handers Peter Smith and Kevin Coffman and left-hander Tom Glavine. The five combine for 84 career major league wins.

“They are going to get a good opportunity,” Tanner said of his three rookie pitchers. “They’ll dictate what happens to us along the way. They have the ability. You have to have a lot of patience, and we have it.”

The bullpen figures to be stocked with the likes of left-handers Paul Assenmacher and Chuck Cary and right-handers Charlie Puleo and Jim Acker.

Reliever Bruce Sutter is still perhaps two months away from returning from his prolonged bout with arm problems. He made slow progress throughout spring training but mostly looked impressive.

So, something positive could come out of the Braves’ season other than Murphy’s usual 100-plus RBIs.

EAST

1. NEW YORK METS--The Mets made headlines in the tabloids because of Gooden’s drug problems, Howard Johnson’s supposedly doctored bat, Strawberry’s practice of missing practices and Davey Johnson’s failed attempt for a contract extension.

The Mets have overcome, even thrived on, situations such as that. But Gooden’s absence, plus injuries that occasionally sidelined the other four starting pitchers and the club’s top reliever were too much.

Last season, Gooden didn’t pitch until June 5. Bob Ojeda, 30, had elbow surgery and didn’t pitch until near the end of 1987. Ron Darling tore ligaments in his thumb near the end of the season. Inconsistent Sid Fernandez missed a few starts with injuries, and Rick Aguilera was bothered by elbow problems for the first half of the season. Roger McDowell, the right-handed stopper in the bullpen, had a hernia operation just before opening day and did not return until May 15.

Once they had the roster intact and reasonably healthy, the Mets made a September push on the Cardinals that fell short. Even with all the problems, the Mets finished with 92 wins.

Gooden may never be the pitcher he was in 1985, when he won 24 games and dominated the league. But he has shown flashes of dominance in the spring. The rest of the rotation, barring injury, probably is the best in the league, and McDowell and left-hander Randy Myers heads a solid bullpen.

Offensively, the Mets figure to be strong again. How many teams have a seventh hitter, Howard Johnson, who hit 36 home runs, had 99 RBIs and stole more than 30 bases? Even if Johnson slips a bit, he still might be the best seventh hitter in baseball.

Carter, 33, and Hernandez, 34, were accused by some--including Strawberry, in print--of not contributing or caring enough. Carter hit .235 but still had 83 RBIs. Hernandez had a career-high 18 home runs, a .290 average, 89 RBIs and won his 10th Gold Glove. The outfield consists of Strawberry (39 home runs, 104 RBIs), Kevin McReynolds (29 home runs, 95 RBIs) and the center-field combination of Len Dykstra and Mookie Wilson.

Shortstop has been a weakness, but the Mets believed enough in rookie Kevin Elster to trade Rafael Santana to the New York Yankees.

2. ST. LOUIS--Jack Clark is gone, and so is most of the Cardinals’ power. When Clark left via free agency, St. Louis lost 29 home runs and 91 RBIs. Before Clark went down with an ankle injury that still is bothering him, the Cardinals had a 61-32 record and 9 1/2-game lead in the East. They held on, just barely, without him.

Unless playoff-hero Jose Oquendo makes home run hitting a habit, the Cardinals basically will rely on Bob Horner’s power to augment their impressive speed. Horner, back after one year of a Japanese sojourn with the Yakult Swallows, averaged 27 home runs a season when he played for the Braves, who play in a stadium built for power hitters. But Horner also has a .322 average in Busch Stadium.

The Cardinals trudged on last season without John Tudor (fractured knee) for most of the first half, and it appears they will have to live without him again at the start of this season. Tudor is again on the disabled list. But the Cardinals have Danny Cox and young left-handers Joe Magrane and Greg Mathews, plus a good bullpen led by Todd Worrell and Ken Dayley.

What makes the Cardinals a perennial contender is their speed and defense, led by shortstop Ozzie Smith and left fielder Vince Coleman. The infield is solid with Tommy Herr at second base, Terry Pendleton at third base and Horner at first.

Not all is wonderful in St. Louis, though. Smith recently criticized Manager Whitey Herzog in Gentleman’s Quarterly magazine. “I felt the team needed a vote of confidence (in the World Series)--for the manager to say, ‘You guys are as good or better than they are,’ ” Smith said. “But Whitey kept saying, ‘I don’t know why we’re here,’ like he expected us to lose. I kept wanting him to say something positive.”

3. PHILADELPHIA--With a bevy of off-season moves, the Phillies addressed all their needs except for their perpetual quest for a quality shortstop.

Steve Jeltz is the incumbent shortstop, but the Phillies continually talk of displacing him. The Phillies recently acquired Bill Almon from the Mets, but he isn’t expected to start. Neither is utility man Luis Aguayo, who hit better than Jeltz but doesn’t have the defensive range.

Except for solving that position, the Phillies made many off-season moves and seem on the verge of living up to the lofty potential many placed upon them before last season’s collapse. They acquired Phil Bradley from the Seattle Mariners for Glenn Wilson, signed free-agent outfielder Bob Dernier and free-agent pitcher David Palmer. Two weeks ago, they traded for another outfielder, the Baltimore Orioles’ switch-hitting Mike Young.

Philadelphia has a strong returning lineup, led, of course, by Mike Schmidt. Lance Parrish had a poor season after coming from the Detroit Tigers as a free agent, but he is expected to greatly improve on a .245 average with 67 RBIs. Second baseman Juan Samuel hit 28 home runs and drove in 100 runs.

Depth is a strength, but pitching is questionable. Palmer already has suffered from elbow problems, and Cy Young Award reliever Steve Bedrosian is on the disabled list because of walking pneumonia. Other Phillie starters include Shane Rawley, Kevin Gross, Don Carman and Bruce Ruffin.

4. MONTREAL--Many picked the Expos to finish last in the East last season, for good reason. They lost free agent Andre Dawson to the Cubs, failed to re-sign Raines and Dennis Martinez and traded top reliever Jeff Reardon.

It turned out that the Expos were contenders for the East title before fading in September. They survived the first six weeks without Raines and Martinez--they both re-signed--and received good performances from the bullpen, first baseman Andres Galarraga and third baseman Tim Wallach.

Galarraga hit .305 with 90 RBIs, and Wallach had a breakthrough season with 26 home runs and 123 RBIs. The rest of the infield will include Casey Candaele at second and Luis Rivera at shortstop. Hubie Brooks has been moved to right field, which he says is like asking Patrick Ewing to be a point guard. The Expos have been looking to improve their catching, to no avail. So, Mike Fitzgerald will probably be the starter.

Pitching remains a question mark. Rodgers doesn’t know whether Martinez and Pascual Perez can again combine for an 18-4 record, or whether Floyd Youmans will bounce back from injuries and a rehabilitation stay.

“I think everything will fit into place,” Rodgers said. “I don’t think anybody here played over their heads last season.”

5. PITTSBURGH--The Pirates might be somewhat faceless now, but give them a few years. General Manager Syd Thrift, whom critics said lived up to his surname by trading away such veterans as Tony Pena, Johnny Ray, Jim Morrison, Rick Reuschel, Rick Rhoden and Don Robinson, has assembled a decent team that might be a year or two away from being good.

The Pirates have arguably the league’s best young pitcher, Mike Dunne, who finished 13-6 with a 3.03 ERA last season. They also have Doug Drabek and Brian Fisher, both 26 years old and promising. Most recently, Pittsburgh acquired Randy Milligan from the Mets. Milligan is expected to platoon at first base with Sid Bream, a former Dodger. Infielder Bobby Bonilla hit for average (.300) and power (77 RBIs) last season. Andy Van Slyke and Barry Bonds are productive outfielders, The catching is capably handled by Mike LaValliere.

But the Pirates still are a few years--and players--away.

6. CHICAGO CUBS--The Cubs have a good lineup. Andre Dawson was the league’s most valuable player last season, hitting 49 home runs. But even Dawson couldn’t prevent the Cubs from finishing in last place.

If the pitching improves, they might move up a few notches. But that isn’t expected to happen.

Calvin Schiraldi, acquired from the Boston Red Sox, has been switched to a starter, a role he hasn’t had since college. He did not pitch well during the spring. Rick Sutcliffe is the ace, but he faded in the stretch last season. And Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer showed some promise last season. The Cubs plans to use a four-man rotation for the first month. Al Nipper is the fifth starter. Gossage was acquired from the Padres to replace Lee Smith, but Gossage doesn’t seem an equitable replacement.

Don Zimmer, the new manager, might sweat off a few pounds watching those pitchers at Wrigley Field, so it might not be a totally absymal season for the Cubs.

HOW THEY FINISHED IN 1987 NL WEST

Team W L Pct. GB San Francisco 90 72 .555 -- Cincinnati 84 78 .519 6 Houston 76 86 .469 14 Dodgers 73 89 .451 17 Atlanta 69 92 .428 20 1/2 San Diego 65 97 .401 25

NL EAST

Team W L Pct. GB St. Louis 95 67 .586 -- New York 92 70 .568 3 Montreal 91 71 .562 4 Philadelphia 80 82 .494 15 Pittsburgh 80 82 .494 15 Chicago 76 85 .472 18 1/2