The Orange County Poll : Cox Emerges as Leader in 40th District Race

Newport Beach attorney C. Christopher Cox, who just five months ago was working in Washington, has emerged from virtual obscurity to become the front-runner in the Republican primary in the 40th Congressional District, a poll conducted for the Times’ Orange County Edition has shown.

The poll found that Cox, senior associate counsel to President Reagan before leaving the White House in January to run for the seat being vacated by Rep. Robert E. Badham (R-Newport Beach), led the field of 12 candidates with support from 31% of Republicans most likely to vote.

Each of his closest rivals, Irvine City Councilman C. David Baker and Newport Beach businessman Nathan Rosenberg, had the support of 24% of likely voters. Three percent of likely voters opted for other candidates, and 18% were undecided.

Did Not Vote in ’84

One factor that could affect the race, however, did not surface until the day after the polling ended. It was the revelation that Cox did not vote in the 1984 presidential election. Cox, who has based his entire campaign on his longtime support of President Reagan, explained that he had intended to vote for Reagan in that election but was in a meeting in Los Angeles and could not get back to Newport Beach before the polls closed. Cox also acknowledged that he did not vote in either the primary election or the general election in 1986.

The survey of 600 registered Republicans in the 40th District--53% of them considered “likely voters”--was conducted May 20-24 for The Times by Mark Baldassare & Associates of Irvine. The poll included an equal number of men and women.

“Despite the closeness of the race,” Baldassare said, “Cox’s strong showing among the most likely voters, coupled with his favorability rating, now gives him the definite advantage. At this point, maintaining his current base of support among likely voters and picking up a third of the undecideds would provide him with the needed plurality.”

Cox, 35, also led the field in the broader survey of all 600 registered Republicans, winning 22%, compared to 18% each for Baker and Rosenberg. The remaining nine candidates split 3% of the vote, and 39% of those surveyed were undecided.

The margin of error in the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4%, and in the sampling of likely voters it is plus or minus 6%.

Although two Democrats and two minor party candidates are also running, the winner of the June 7 Republican primary is virtually assured of winning the general election because of the district’s strong Republican tradition. Of the more than 326,000 registered voters in the district, which is 90% predominantly white, almost 59% are Republicans.

The 40th Congressional District seat opened when Badham chose not to run for a seventh term. He has endorsed Baker.

On Saturday, Cox said the poll shows that voters have looked at the three leading contenders and “determined that one is far more substantial.” He said his campaign strategy of stressing his Washington experience has begun paying dividends, because “voters want a representative who understands government on the federal level.”

Both Baker and Rosenberg said the results show the race is a dead heat among the three.

“Clearly, it is a three-way horse race,” Rosenberg said. “Obviously our job is to get the message out in the next week and an half. Nobody is showing clear strength, so it will come down to a war of the mailboxes.”

Baker said Cox’s strong showing “sadly points out how much outside money can influence a race.” Cox has raised more than $500,000 in contributions for his campaign, 40% of it from outside Orange County.

“Nobody had heard of Chris Cox four months ago,” Baker said. “Now, look at him. It is a classic example of how money, in this case outside money, can buy name recognition.”

The survey was conducted as the campaign entered its final phase, and the results may come as a surprise to some political observers because at the outset of the race Cox was given little chance of overtaking his two better-known rivals.

It was Rosenberg, who mounted a strong but unsuccessful challenge to Badham two years ago, and Baker who were seen as the front-runners. But as the campaign has unfolded, neither Rosenberg nor Baker has been able to expand his political base.

The poll showed that while voters put heavy emphasis on some of the 35-year-old Baker’s assets--endorsements from prominent Orange County Republicans and local community service--this failed to translate into voter support.

Baldassare said part of Cox’s strength stemmed from the stronger negative readings that Rosenberg and Baker drew in the poll. In addition, Cox’s favorable ratings were higher than the other two leading candidates, and he ranked considerably better than Baker or Rosenberg among voters 55 and older, a group that tends to go to the polls in large numbers and to vote for conservatives.

According to the most recent reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Cox leads the field in fund raising in the 40th District primary, which may turn out to be the most expensive in county history. As of May 18, Cox had received $505,374 in campaign contributions, Rosenberg $436,138, and Baker $322,763.

Cox also leads the pack in the amount of money he has put aside to spend in the crucial final days of the campaign to sway undecided voters. He showed a healthy balance of $218,674 in his campaign account as of May 18, while Baker had a cash-on-hand total of $67,789. Rosenberg, 36, reported only $473 in unspent cash but said he has paid for a lot of campaign expenses in advance.

With the lead and a sizable campaign war chest, Cox enjoys a definite advantage at this point in the race, according to pollster Baldassare.

“Baker and Rosenberg both face uphill battles in the next two weeks,” he said. “Each will have to capture most of the undecideds, or hope that events lead to the other candidates losing support, or rely on risky negative campaigning to take away other candidates’ support in order to win.”

Baldassare said the seemingly large percentage--39%--of undecided voters among all those surveyed was not especially significant because 75% of them probably will not vote anyway.

Baldassare said one of the more puzzling questions raised by the poll was why Baker did not run stronger.

- The poll found that a majority of those surveyed were inclined to vote for a candidate if he had been endorsed by leading Orange County Republicans, and Baker has garnered the lion’s share of endorsements from notable local Republicans. Besides Badham, those who have endorsed him include state Sen. Marian Bergeson, the Newport Beach Republican whose district overlaps much of the 40th Congressional District, and Orange County Sheriff-Coroner Brad Gates.

- Moreover, there is a voter preference for someone--like Baker--who has been active in the local community, according to the poll. Fifty-five percent of the undecided voters said they were looking for a candidate who had been locally involved.

- Finally, the survey revealed that marital fidelity did not appear to be a big issue in the campaign, with seven out of 10 Republicans saying they would not withdraw their support from a candidate just because he had had an extramarital affair. The issue of marital fidelity was raised in this race during a candidates forum April 28 when an unidentified man accused Baker, who is married, of having an affair with a married woman. Baker has refused to discuss the matter in detail.

Nonetheless, the poll showed that Baker had little support outside of his home territory of Irvine and was only the third choice among voters looking for a conservative candidate.

“So the question seems to be, ‘Why isn’t Baker doing better?’ ” Baldassare said. “Baker is the local candidate at this time. He has the endorsements, and marital fidelity doesn’t seem to be a big factor.”

The poll indicated that, with so little time left before the election, about half of all Republicans in the district had formed opinions about the candidates. And among likely voters in the primary, at least two in three have strong feelings--negative or positive--about each of the three leading candidates.

Of all the candidates, Rosenberg had the highest name identification score, with 53% of all Republicans and 78% of the likely voters having formed an opinion about him.

But 27% of all voters and 42% of all likely voters have negative views about Rosenberg, the highest negative ratings of any candidate. Rosenberg’s favorable rating of 36% among likely voters was also lower than Baker’s 40% or Cox’s 45%.

Among all Republicans, Cox drew the most favorable response, with 31% saying they had a favorable image of him and only 14% saying they viewed him unfavorably. Baker drew a favorable rating of 28% from all Republicans and an unfavorable score of 18%. Rosenberg’s favorable rating among all Republican voters was 26%.

“Clearly, Rosenberg has the greatest name recognition, but this doesn’t translate into votes,” Baldassare said.

The survey showed that all three major candidates were best known in Newport Beach and Irvine and least known in the north and central portions of the district. Perhaps not surprisingly, Baker attracted strong positive readings in Irvine (51%), while Cox ran strongly in Newport Beach, where 50% hold a positive view of him. Rosenberg’s best showing was Newport Beach (32%) and in the district’s northern reaches (30%).

Voter turnout could become a factor in the election, Baldassare said. The poll showed that many of Cox’s supporters are older, more conservative voters, who are the most likely to go to the polls. That means Cox would run stronger if there is a light turnout than if there is a heavy turnout, Baldassare said.

“The way it looks now among all Republicans is that the race is close, but Cox clearly has the edge,” Baldassare said. “The biggest surprise is that Cox came from basically nowhere. It seems it may be something lacking in the other candidates that has allowed Cox to gain the advantage.”

THE TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL

With less than two weeks left before the June 7 primary, The Times’ Orange County Poll indicates that C. Christopher Cox has claimed the lead in a 12-candidate field in the race for the Republican nomination for the 40th Congressional District. Cox, former senior associate White House counsel, jumped out in front of early favorites C. David Baker and Nathan Rosenberg.The poll, in which 600 registered Republican voters were surveyed, was conducted May 20 through 24 for The Times by Mark Baldassare & Associates of Irvine.

VOTER PREFERENCE

Cox 31%

Rosenberg 24%

Baker 24%

Other 3%

Don’t know 18%

CAMPAIGN FUNDS

Campaign Contributions as of May 18.

Cox $505,374

Rosenberg $436,138

Baker $322,763

CANDIDATE IMAGE Among Republicans most likely to vote, at least two of every three voters have formed either a positive or negative image of each of the three leading candidates. One factor that could alter the following figures is the recent disclosure that Cox had not voted in recent elections, which came after the polling had been completed.

CANDIDATE % WITH OPINION % POSITIVE % NEGATIVE % NO OPINION Rosenberg 78 36 42 22 Cox 67 45 22 33 Baker 67 40 27 33

EFFECTS OF ENDORSEMENT

About half of the voters surveyed said endorsements from leading Orange County Republicans would have a positive influence in determining how they would vote. Baker has received the lion’s share of endorsements of local Republican leaders.

Positive influence 48%

Negative influence 12%

No difference 40%

CANDIDATE QUALITIES

About half of the voters surveyed said it is more important to them that Badham’s replacement be someone who has been involved in the local community than someone with strong ties to the conservative wing of the party or a successful businessman.

Conservative ties 30%

Local involvement 48%

Successful businessman 19%

Other 3%

Sources: Times Orange County Poll by Mark Baldassare and Associates, Irvine and Federal Election Commission Reports

Times staff writer Steven R. Churm contributed to this story.