Plant-Closing Bill Veto Now Seen as Uncertain

White House officials, once virtually certain that President Reagan would veto the controversial bill requiring large companies to give 60 days’ notice of plant closings, now say it is possible the President may give in to intense political pressure and allow the measure to become law.

The officials acknowledge that the White House began wavering as the issue became increasingly woven into the fabric of the presidential campaign. With the deadline for Reagan’s decision set for Wednesday, George Bush’s campaign staff has--at least in private--made it very clear that the vice president does not want the measure vetoed.

In Bush’s camp and among other Republican strategists, fears are mounting that a veto could trigger a political backlash and make it more difficult for GOP candidates to appeal to blue-collar voters.

“Nobody likes this issue; everybody wishes it would go away,” one senior White House official said.

“The politics are out of control,” another senior official said.

If Reagan decides not to veto the bill, he would have the option of signing it or merely allowing it to become law by taking no action within 10 working days of receiving it--the period that will elapse on Wednesday.

The measure, which has developed wide public support, according to public opinion polls, was approved by the House on a 286-136 vote and by the Senate, 72 to 23. In both cases, the margin of passage was greater than the two-thirds needed to override a presidential veto.

Those close to the vice president say they see little room for maneuvering. One Bush adviser described the dilemma faced by Reagan, and thus by Bush, as “a perceptual thing--that you don’t care about workers.”

That theme was underscored frequently during the Democratic National Convention two weeks ago and is expected to be used heavily by Democratic presidential nominee Michael S. Dukakis during the general election campaign.

Veto Is ‘a Tough Sell’

“For the working guy who can’t figure out why it’s a bad bill for economic reasons,” a veto is “a tough sell,” the Bush adviser said.

At the same time, Reagan is receiving conflicting advice on whether to sign or veto another high-profile measure--the legislation providing $299 billion for the Administration’s military programs in the next fiscal year.

Congressional sources said Reagan was leaning toward vetoing the bill, which contains arms control provisions he opposes and provides only $4 billion of the $4.9 billion he requested for his Strategic Defense Initiative missile defense project.

GOP Leaders Split

Senate Republican leaders Bob Dole of Kansas and Alan K. Simpson of Wyoming have backed a veto, but Defense Secretary Frank C. Carlucci reportedly has urged that the bill be signed to prevent the House and Senate from tacking on more provisions to restrict Pentagon contracting procedures as a result of the unfolding military procurement scandal. Reagan has until Friday to make a decision.

The President’s predicament on the plant-closings bill is particularly difficult because Reagan has spoken out against the proposal many times this year. He cited it prominently on May 24, when he announced his veto of the omnibus trade bill, which, at that time, included the plant-closing provision.

Reagan’s Objections to Bill

The President has argued that the bill, which requires that large companies notify workers 60 days in advance of plant closings or substantial layoffs, would be an improper intrusion into private business affairs, would make it more difficult for companies to obtain last-ditch financing to stay open and would make the United States a less inviting place for business investment.

As recently as July 21, White House Chief of Staff Kenneth M. Duberstein left little doubt about Reagan’s stand after a senior staff meeting.

“Let me make it very clear that our longstanding position has been that it is unacceptable to the President, that he has signaled veto, he has vetoed it once already as part of another bill, and I would suspect that that position will be maintained,” Duberstein said.

Although Congress repackaged the provision as a separate bill, it was the looming political implications that have caused the biggest change in its status.

Pressure From Congress

The President is “getting strong pressure from members of Congress to let it go into law because they can’t sustain a veto,” said one senior Administration official.

While a White House aide said that backing away now would look like a “cop-out . . . we’re getting begged by Dole and Simpson not to make the Senate vote on this again.”

Another official said that, even if Reagan vetoes the measure and his veto is sustained--a course that Republican congressional leaders are telling the White House is not certain--Democrats would be likely to reintroduce it, using it as a constant reminder throughout the presidential campaign that such notice of layoffs is opposed by the Republican White House.

“It will be an endless problem for us all season,” this source said.