ELECTIONS ’88 : ORANGE COUNTY : County’s Vote Clout Makes Bush, Dukakis Run for Their Lives : County Vote Clout Has Bush, Dukakis Running Hard

Michael S. Dukakis is running harder in Orange County than any Democratic presidential candidate in recent history, and the GOP county chairman has called the campaign being mounted here on behalf of Republican nominee George Bush “awesome.”

Orange County is getting more national political attention as the Nov. 8 election approaches than at perhaps any time in history.

While no other Democratic presidential candidate has ever campaigned in Orange County more than once, Dukakis has stumped for votes in Irvine, Laguna Beach and Buena Park since cinching his party’s nomination last spring. His wife, Kitty, and his mother, daughter and son have also campaigned in Orange County.

“The family’s been here like gangbusters,” said Howard Adler of Laguna Hills, chairman of the Dukakis campaign in the county. He added that Dukakis’ campaign is “the largest effort ever committed to the county, bar none. There’s not one that even comes close to it.”

On the Republican side, Bush has been campaigning vigorously in Orange County since his nomination was assured. Bush and his wife, Barbara, spent primary election night with thousands of GOP activists at the Doubletree Hotel in Orange, and he has campaigned in Fullerton and Orange. Barbara Bush has campaigned on her own, and two of the Bush’s four sons, Jeb and Neil, have joined the effort for their father, as have Bush’s running mate, Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana, and President Reagan.

The prize in all this politicking is California’s rich store of 47 electoral votes, which are won or lost in a bloc. Orange County is the home of about 1.15 million of the state’s 13.2 million voters, and it is considered a key area by both parties in the battle for the statewide vote.

“Orange County is numero uno, “ Bush’s state chairman, Bill Lacy, said on a recent visit. “Our goal here is to make sure we turn out every possible Republican vote.”

Dukakis’ state chairman, Tony Podesta, said that although Republicans dominate politics in Orange County, “it’s an important area. . . . We’re not going to concede any voters” there.

This is a marked change from the past, when, as longtime Democratic activist Richard J. O’Neill of San Juan Capistrano said: “We may talk to ourselves and think we’re doing something. But most of the time, Orange County is relatively ignored.”

While in many election years Orange County money has been funneled into campaign efforts elsewhere, this year Dukakis’ campaign is returning contributions to the local presidential push on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

“It’s the first time in history,” Adler said. “I think it’s a recognition of our running a major effort here.”

The money--totaling $80,000 so far and supplemented by another $30,000 or so raised in small contributions locally--has been used mostly for voter registration efforts, to open eight regional offices and to organize more than 1,800 volunteers to get out the vote on Election Day.

And the Republicans?

Said county GOP Chairman Thomas A. Fuentes: “I think we have had probably the highest level of priority given to us in comparison to any county in America.”

Republicans hold a 54.8% to 34.9% edge in voter registration in Orange County, where President Reagan won by an astounding 415,000 votes in 1984.

“I guess if I had to really hang my hat on something as to . . . what kinds of dollars are being spent from the variety of pots . . . I’d say it’s probably half a million dollars,” Fuentes said. “That’s an awesome lot of money.”

There has been enough to open 12 regional GOP offices, with about that many more scheduled to be opened before Election Day. Also, there is sufficient money for printing materials, telephones and other needed resources, Fuentes said.

At last count, the GOP had 7,000 volunteers listed in its computerized records, Fuentes said. “It warms the cockles of my heart,” he added.

While the money and volunteers available to the Democrats will be nowhere near what Orange County Republicans have, the strength of the Democratic campaign has raised hopes that Dukakis can prevent Bush from building a margin of victory in Orange County that would be too large to overcome in the rest of the state.

The magic number most often mentioned by leaders of both major parties is 200,000 votes. If Dukakis can come out of the Nov. 8 election with a deficit of no more than that in Orange County, he may be able to win California. Or so the conventional political wisdom goes.

Bush and Dukakis have both declared California a top priority.

Leaders of both parties agree that local efforts by and on behalf of their candidates are only part of the picture. Shaping events in Orange County, as elsewhere, are the national polls, the media, network advertising campaigns, the vice presidential debate and the two presidential debates, the last of which was held Thursday night.

Dukakis county chairman Adler, who walked precincts last weekend, said he was worried to find that many Democrats were still undecided as the campaign entered its final four weeks.

“I see a great effort being put on, and a lot of enthusiastic people, but I think the impact of the campaign is yet to be felt here,” Adler said. “We have one hell of a lot of work to do” to get people to the polls for Dukakis.

Thursday’s presidential debate did not ease Adler’s worries.

“I don’t think he (Dukakis) persuaded . . . any of our largely undecided voters in that debate,” Adler said. Still, he added, “we’re definitely not out of this thing. . . . We can pull this thing out if we work very hard.” In any case, Adler said, for the first time in a long time, the party has the resources and the people to do that work, “so I’m optimistic we have a shot at it at least.”

By contrast, Republicans are feeling ever more confident. Republican morale seems to rise with each passing day, said Bruce Nestande, co-chairman of Orange County Bush campaign.

“That winning mentality creates enthusiasm,” Nestande said. “Therefore, the recruitment (for volunteers) is going a great deal better than if we were behind, as we were two or three months ago.”

That Republican confidence is not lost on the opposition. Asked what more could be done for Dukakis in the county, developer and Democratic activist Mike Ray chuckled and said, “Three or four hundred thousand Republicans could catch the plague and die.”

CAMPAIGN VISITS

Here is a list of campaign visits to Orange County this year by the presidential and vice presidential candidates and their families:

May 8--John Dukakis appears at Cinco de Mayo festival in Santa Ana.

May 13--George Bush campaigns at Hughes Ground Systems plant in Fullerton.

May 24--Euterpe Dukakis attends rally at Seal Beach Leisure World.

May 26--Michael and Kitty Dukakis tour laser institute near UC Irvine and attend rally at UC Irvine.

June 7--George and Barbara Bush watch primary election results with supporters at Doubletree Hotel in Orange.

Aug. 5--Michael Dukakis attends Laguna Beach rally.

Aug. 12--Jeb Bush attends luncheon meeting in Santa Ana with about 40 GOP leaders.

Aug. 27--Dan Quayle has breakfast with county GOP leaders in Irvine and attends rallies at Laguna Hills Leisure World and Lake Mission Viejo.

Sept. 14--George and Barbara Bush have breakfast with Latino leaders in Orange.

Sept. 17--Michael Dukakis attends Buena Park rally.

Sept. 22--Neil Bush campaigns in Costa Mesa and Garden Grove on behalf of his father.

Sept. 23--Jeb Bush is at a noon opening of Latino headquarters and an evening dinner for Project ‘90, a fund-raising organization for GOP legislative candidates.

Oct. 4--Kitty Dukakis meets with Vietnamese immigrants in Santa Ana and attends a rally at Loara High School in Anaheim.

Oct. 5--Andrea Dukakis attends rally at Cal State Fullerton.

Oct. 13--Barbara Bush campaigns at Seal Beach Leisure World.