The Times Poll : Bradley Not Blamed for L.A. Problems

Tom Bradley is not held responsible by the people for their growing disillusion about life in Los Angeles and seems certain to continue his reign as the city’s longest-serving mayor by winning an unprecedented fifth term in April, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Bradley seems to share the same “Teflon” immunity from blame that former President Ronald Reagan enjoyed, in that Bradley escapes the public’s scorn for crime, traffic and runaway growth. They are all local issues that can be influenced by decisions in City Hall, and the poll found rising resentment of those problems. But in the next breath, people expressed loyalty to the man, now 71 years old, who made history when he was elected mayor of Los Angeles as a 55-year-old black city councilman.

Rated Favorably

The mayor was rated favorably for his performance in office by 67% of those polled in the survey conducted over four days ending Feb. 14. That is not the highest rating Bradley has enjoyed in the Times Poll--he was rated favorably by 74% in March, 1986--but it is higher than his 63% approval rating in August, 1987.

Another way of showing Bradley’s spell over the city is to look at people’s feelings about the city during his tenure in office. Asked how Los Angeles has changed in the last 15 years, 65% said for the worse and 18% said for the better. But again, Bradley is not blamed. Over the same period, 39% said Bradley has changed for the better, and only 14% said he changed for the worse.

About 57% said they wanted Bradley to run for a fifth term this year, and his experience was cited as the biggest reason he should run.

The poll offers some suggestions, but certainly not the entire story, of why Bradley is not held to account for the city’s problems. When people were asked which descriptions of Bradley they most agreed with, the most popular--with 33%--was “he has done a good job as mayor.” Another 26% cited his handling of the 1984 Olympics, 22% praised his experience and 13% said “he cares about people like me.”

Bradley is the city’s first black mayor, and in 1963, he was the first black man elected to the City Council. He has always had strong appeal to blacks in the city. But in this poll whites and blacks said almost equally--70% for whites, 68% for blacks--that they have a favorable impression of Bradley after all these years. Latinos were even stronger, with 78% rating Bradley favorably.

The only part of the city where fewer than 70% had a favorable impression of the mayor was in the San Fernando Valley, traditionally the part of town where the mayor’s political support was softest. But Bradley won every area of the Valley in his 1985 reelection bid and is still rated favorably there by 61% of those polled.

Still, there are signs that Bradley might have been vulnerable politically this year if a strong, well-financed candidate had been willing to take him on and put the Bradley record to a serious test.

Quality of Life

About 45% of those polled said they believe things are going badly in Los Angeles, almost double the 24% who said things were going badly in 1986. Also, 63% said the quality of life has deteriorated in Los Angeles during the last 15 years, about the same amount of time that Bradley has held the office.

More people also said they believed that someone other than Bradley would have a better chance of reducing crime, improving the environment and solving the problems brought on by the growing population. Asked if they wanted to see a change in City Hall or would welcome four more years of Bradley, 41% preferred a change and 43% wanted Bradley.

But since no strong opponent appeared to raise questions about the Bradley record, he has a clear shot at winning a majority of the votes in the April 11 primary and securing a fifth term.

Bradley’s main opponents in the primary are first-term City Councilman Nate Holden, who suffers from a lack of money, campaign organization and public identity, and former Los Angeles County Supervisor Baxter Ward, who has not won an election since 1976 and also is trying to run without money or campaign staff.

More than half of the people surveyed in the city said they had no impression at all of Holden or Ward. But nearly everyone had heard of Bradley, and among registered voters ready to take a side, 66% said they would vote for Bradley, 11% said Ward, 10% said Holden and 13% were for someone else.

What promised to be a more serious challenge to the mayor ended when City Councilman Zev Yaroslavsky decided not run. Yaroslavsky had amassed a huge amount of money and signed a number of prominent Los Angeles figures to his steering committee but finally concluded his chances of beating Bradley were not good enough to justify the personal and political costs. The poll backs up his decision in at least one key way.

Among those in Los Angeles who know of him, Yaroslavsky was rated favorably by a 2-to-1 margin. But many more--44%--said they were not aware of him. He was no better known than Ward or Holden and only slightly better liked.

In his stronghold on the Westside of the city, Yaroslavsky scored a 49% favorable impression. But Bradley came in with a 72% favorable impression.

Bradley has denied any interest in making a third run for the governorship of California in 1990. But he has said nothing about running for a sixth term as mayor in 1993 if he is victorious this spring, and there are many in City Hall who think he will retire after five terms.

The poll surveyed 873 Los Angeles residents by telephone from Feb. 11 through Feb. 14. The margin of error is 6%. The poll director is I.A. Lewis.

To get some idea who might emerge as leaders in Los Angeles when Bradley steps down, the poll asked people their impression of a roster of politicians with some interest in local issues.

No one stood out when citywide results were analyzed. City Atty. James K. Hahn was viewed favorably by 16% of the people, Councilman Mike Woo by 14% and Yaroslavsky by 13%. State Assemblyman Tom Hayden, a Democrat who lives in Santa Monica but who has involved himself in Los Angeles affairs, was the only other figure viewed favorably by at least 10%.

Among white residents of the city, Woo was the most highly regarded, with Hahn and Yaroslavsky close behind. Among blacks, state Assemblywoman Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) was the highest rated, with Hahn not far behind. Waters is black, and though Hahn is not, his father, county Supervisor Kenneth Hahn, has represented black areas of the county since 1952.

Latinos rated City Councilman Richard Alatorre, a former state legislator, the highest, with Councilwoman Gloria Molina, another former state legislator, next. Both are Latinos.

HOW L.A. RESIDENTS RATE BRADLEY

The Los Angeles Times Poll surveyed a scientific sampling of 873 Los Angeles residents by telephone about Mayor Tom Bradley, above, and the 1989 mayoral campaign. The poll was conducted between Feb. 11 and Feb. 14 and has a margin of error of 6%. The poll director is I.A. Lewis.

For purposes of this poll, Central Los Angeles includes the Eastside and all areas north of the Santa Monica Freeway and south of Mulholland Drive, as far west as Robertson Boulevard. South Los Angeles includes all areas south of the Santa Monica Freeway.

1. How do you rate the job done by Mayor Bradley?

City overall

Mar. 86 Aug. 87 Feb. 89 Approve 74 67 67% Disapprove 15 20 20% Don’t know 11 13 13%

Residents by location

Valley West South Central Approve 56 71 73 71% Disapprove 29 16 14 18% Don’t know 15 13 13 11%

2. Do you think it’s time for a change in City Hall, or are you looking forward to another four years with Bradley as mayor?

Valley West South Central Change 34 42 56 43% No change 51 42 28 39% Not sure 15 16 16 18%

3. Should Bradley run for a fifth term?

Valley West South Central Yes 46 61 59 66% No 44 31 33 27% Not sure 10 8 8 7%

4. If mayoral election were held today, whom would you vote for?

Valley West South Central Tom Bradley 42 59 54 57% Nate Holden 7 4 13 5% Baxter Ward 13 5 4 4% Someone else 9 17 5 8% Don’t know 21 11 17 22%

5. In order to see who might be the Los Angeles leaders of the 1990s, people were asked which of selected local politicians they view most favorably.

Citywide Whites Latinos Blacks James Hahn 16 17 9 36% Michael Woo 14 20 13 6% Zev Yaroslavsky 13 17 1 0% Tom Hayden 10 14 6 4% Ruth Galanter 9 11 5 16% Maxine Waters 9 3 1 42% Richard Alatorre 8 6 37 2% Gloria Molina 8 5 32 5% Kathleen Brown 3 1 4 5% None/not sure 44 43 38 31%