Baseball : Dodgers’ 5 Early Draft Picks Won’t Get Them McDonald

The Dodgers have five of the first 52 picks in baseball’s annual summer draft, which begins Monday.

Does that assure success in an inexact science? Who can be sure?

Of the 258 first-round selections between 1977 and 1986, only 55% have reached the majors. On the other hand, Orel Hershiser wasn’t picked until the 17th round, Jose Canseco the 15th, Don Mattingly the 19th, Keith Hernandez the 42nd, etc. And Brian Downing, Tom Herr and Claudell Washington, among others, weren’t even drafted.

The only certainty in the 1989 pool is that the Dodgers and 24 other clubs can forget about Louisiana State pitcher Ben McDonald.

Everyone is going on the assumption that McDonald will be taken by the Baltimore Orioles, drafting first.

The 6-foot-7 McDonald, now trying to pitch the Tigers to the College World Series title, has a year of eligibility left, but the Orioles are believed willing to offer a signing bonus of $250,000 or more, particularly in the light of their surprising success in the American League East.

McDonald might move directly from the Omaha tournament to the Orioles’ rebuilt rotation, where he could be a decisive addition in a division up for grabs. Gregg Olson, the Orioles’ No. 1 selection from Auburn last year, has already had an impact on the Baltimore bullpen.

How good is McDonald, whose fastball has been clocked at 97 m.p.h.?

“He probably has better stuff than anyone on the Baltimore staff,” Dodger scouting director Ben Wade said. “He’s damn near a complete pitcher right now. I mean, I don’t remember the last time I graded a pitcher so highly.”

Said Bob Fontaine, Angel scouting director who registered the coup of last year’s draft with his selection of one-handed Jim Abbott:

“McDonald probably has a chance of making the big leagues quicker than any player in the draft. He’s a big strong kid who has continuously improved. Anyone who saw him on the U.S. team last year or at LSU this year knows that.”

And after McDonald?

“This year’s draft has a chance to be the biggest guess of all,” Wade said, alluding to a rare situation in which the high school talent at the top level is superior to the college talent.

The Major League Scouting Bureau lists nine high school players after McDonald in its top 10. Baseball America lists nine high school players in its top 15.

Three high school players--outfielder Earl Cunningham of Lancaster, S.C.; catcher Tyler Houston of Las Vegas, and outfielder Paul Coleman of Frankston, Tex.--are almost certain to be among the top five or six choices, but there is no clear definition as to order.

Wade said that the Dodgers will draft the best available talent, regardless of the player’s position.

His first selection is No. 15, which belonged to the New York Yankees until they signed Steve Sax, a Class A free agent.

The Dodgers also have their own 22nd choice in the first round, another compensation pick for Sax between the first and second rounds, the Cleveland Indians’ second-round choice because of their signing of Class B free agent Jesse Orosco, and their own second-round selection, the 52nd of a draft in which the major league potential, Wade said, runs that deep.

Potential, of course, can be an albatross. Wade has already taken heat for the Dodgers’ last two No. 1 selections, but he calls that a rush to judgment.

The Dodgers drafted pitcher Dan Opperman from Valley High School in Las Vegas in 1987, despite a history of arm problems. Opperman was warming up for his first minor league appearance that summer when he grabbed his elbow and ultimately underwent the transplant surgery pioneered by Tommy John. He is back pitching now for Vero Beach and registering 92 on the speed gun, Wade said.

“If he gets through this year without another setback, we’ll have the pitcher we thought we had two years ago,” Wade added.

Last year’s No. 1 was Bill Bene of Cal State Los Angeles, an outfielder turned pitcher whose inexperience has been showing at Bakersfield, where he has allowed 29 walks and 17 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings and has an 11.68 earned-run average.

“He’s having an awful time this year but he was a player everyone felt had the best arm in the country,” Wade said. “It was a gamble that may take four or five years to return a dividend. We’ll have to wait and see.

“For right now, of course, Abbott has turned out to be the best of the players taken in last year’s draft. I liked him as well as everyone else did, but I’d have been shot if I had drafted him.”

Abbott would have had to bat in the National League, seemingly a major problem, even though nothing else has been.

Abbott was the eighth player selected in the first round, Bene the fifth.

This year, the Angels draft ninth.

Fontaine and his staff spent the last week in seclusion at Catalina, trying to determine if they can find another No. 1 who can make the same instant jump to the majors.

The Angels, too, plan to pick the best available player, regardless of position and scholastic standing, Fontaine said.

“Obviously, Abbott is a tough act to follow, but it’s the kind of pressure you love to have,” he added. “Every year you try to outdo yourself.

“With this year’s group, I don’t see too many who might make the leap right away, but there are some who might do it in a couple of years.

“Of course, when we started, that’s exactly what we were thinking about with Abbott.”

Mike Schmidt bowed out with class, dignity and emotion that reflected his feeling for the game.

“I don’t want the fans to remember me struggling,” the Philadelphia Phillies’ third baseman of the last 18 years said.

On the same day, Tommy John was released by the Yankees but said he wanted to continue pitching.

John’s spirit, resiliency and work ethic are to be admired, but there is this: Since the start of the 1981 season, John has a 74-80 record with an earned-run average of 4.13.

At 46, he has 288 wins and will be voted to the Hall of Fame even if he never wins another. Isn’t that enough? Do we want to remember a struggling T.J. or would we prefer the graceful departure of Schmidt, candidly acknowledging the deterioration of his skills?

The answer seems obvious.

Of course, part of John’s desire to continue pitching is easily understood.

He sees veterans such as Bob McClure, Jesse Orosco, Jerry Reuss, Larry McWilliams and Dan Schatzader bounce from club to club and concludes there is a desperate need for left-handed pitching.

Then came last week’s topper, the Dodger signing of Pete Falcone, who is 35, hasn’t pitched in five years, had a 70-90 record and whose fastball never got above 84 m.p.h. in his tryout.

Falcone, who is in business in Atlanta, had been working out with the Georgia Tech baseball team when he called the Dodgers and asked for a look.

The Dodgers invited him to Vero Beach, which apparently should not be construed as an open invitation to any left-hander seeking a Florida vacation.

“We liked what we saw,” said Charlie Blaney, minor league director. “He has a good fastball, an excellent curveball and he also throws a palmball. He has three major league pitches, was in good shape physically and has major league experience.”

Falcone is at Albuquerque, insurance of sorts.

“You never leave a stone unturned,” Blaney said. “That he’s left-handed is a definite plus.”

So how important is velocity anyway? Jeff Ballard, the Orioles’ new ace, is 8-1 with a total of only 15 strikeouts.

And the Orioles are now spending their 27th day in first place in the American League East this year. They were in first place for a total of 23 days between 1984 and 1988. One reason for the revival: “This is the best Oriole defensive team I’ve ever seen,” said Jim Palmer, saying a lot.

Among the defensive standouts Palmer played with in Baltimore were Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger, Bobby Grich and Paul Blair.

The run production of the New York Mets has gone from an average of 5.08 a game in 1987 to 4.39 in 1988 to 3.21 this year. Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter are on the disabled list. Wally Backman is in Minnesota. Mookie Wilson is slumping at the top of the lineup and Darryl Strawberry and Kevin McReynolds have been inconsistent in the middle. The swagger and arrogance are gone.

“We’ve got a lot of problems,” Strawberry said in Los Angeles the other day. “We’re not doing the little things to score runs. It seems like there’s no drive, no motivation. We’re dead. When we do get a lead and the other team comes back, it seems like we say, ‘Well, we lost. It’s over.’ ”

Sensing a growing tension, Manager Dave Johnson held a clubhouse meeting in San Francisco in midweek, imploring his players to develop camaraderie and forget about trades that aren’t going to happen, to cease the inevitable finger pointing, much of it reportedly directed at Gregg Jefferies and his sub-.200 batting average.

Reporters covering the Mets are besieged daily by players asking when the club is going to trade for a hitter and when Jefferies is going to be sent down. Even Strawberry, the new leader, went to Johnson on the team bus the other day and said he was tired of hitting behind Jefferies and should be moved to third in the order, which he since has been.

But a trade? Or the optioning of Jefferies? Unlikely, Johnson said.

“The way we’re going, I don’t think we could make a large enough deal to make a difference, unless we get (Will) Clark and (Kevin) Mitchell,” the manager added.