Rising Birthrate Forecasts Hold Trouble for Schools

Due to increased birthrates, California public school enrollment will increase even more sharply than expected over the next 10 years, aggravating an already severe shortage of classroom space, new estimates by the state Department of Finance show.

The new numbers project an average annual increase of 160,000 pupils in kindergarten through 12th grade--20,000 more per year than the department’s population experts were predicting a year ago. Total enrollment is expected to increase from about 4.5 million this year to almost 6.1 million in 1998--a 35% jump.

School districts in several Southern California counties will be especially hard hit by heavy new enrollment demands, according to the Department of Education.

Riverside County is expected to experience an 89% enrollment increase in the next 10 years, San Bernardino 78%, San Diego 46%, Orange County 27%, Ventura 24% and Los Angeles County 23%.

The Los Angeles Unified School District is expecting an increase of 61,623 students in the five-year period ending in 1993-94, which would bring district enrollment to an all-time high of 656,425.

The new projections are bad news for school officials, who already face a backlog of more than $5 billion in unmet school building needs statewide.

State Supt. of Public Instruction Bill Honig said $1.6 billion in bond issues approved by voters last year already has been committed to new school construction and that another $3.5 billion is needed by 1992.

Honig has asked Gov. George Deukmejian and legislative leaders to place a $1.5-billion general obligation school bond issue on the June, 1990, ballot and another $1.5-billion measure on the November, 1990, ballot. In addition, Honig has asked for $500 million in revenue bonds or other new revenue sources to finance construction needs between now and June, 1990.

“We’ve got to keep this building program going,” Honig said Friday. “Otherwise, we’re looking at double sessions in a lot of school districts in a couple of years.”

Los Angeles Unified Budget Director Henry Jones said the district will need $1 billion for new and modernized schools by the 1992-93 school year.

The Department of Finance’s increased projections were caused by rising fertility rates among black and white California women and a continuing high rate among Latinas, said Mary Heim, research manager in the department’s population unit.

In the past, department researchers have studied “trends in total fertility,” Heim said. This year they looked at racial and ethnic fertility rates and then changed their projections because “the mix is changing,” she said.

In 1987, the last year for which data is available, there were 106.3 live births per 1,000 Latinas of child-bearing age (15 to 44), while the rate for Asian women was 78.8 per 1,000, for black women it was 78.3 and for white women 63.5.

Between 1982 and 1987, the number of live births per 1,000 Latinas remained about the same--106.4 in 1982, 106.3 in 1987-- but for black women the number jumped from 72.8 births per 1,000 women in 1982 to 78.3 in 1987.

For white women there was an increase from 59 to 63.5. Among Asian women, the number dropped from 81.6 in 1982 to 78.8 in 1987.

California’s fertility rate for all racial and ethnic groups was 76.6 live births per 1,000 women in 1987, the highest it has been since 1970 and well above the U.S. average of 66.1.

‘Keeps Going Up’

“California just keeps going up,” said Gwendolyn Doebbert, chief of the demographic section in the state Department of Health Services, which compiled these figures.

These numbers translate into serious overcrowding for many of the state’s school districts, which already are running well behind the demand for new classrooms, laboratories, cafeterias and other needed facilities.

Jim Murdoch, Sacramento lobbyist for an organization called Coalition for Adequate School Housing, said the state office of local assistance, which allocates money to local school districts, has a $4.3-billion backlog of applications for new and updated school buildings.

Another $700 million to $750 million in applications are pending in the office of the state architect, Murdoch said.

In a recent letter to Deukmejian and to majority and minority leaders of the Assembly and Senate, schools’ chief Honig called this a “crisis facing our overcrowded schools.”

State voters approved an $800-million school bond measure in June of last year and another $800 million last November, but Honig said all these funds have now been committed to new construction projects.

Proposition 98, approved by voters last year, assures public schools and community colleges of at least 40% of state general revenues, but it applies only to operating budgets, not construction.

Pending in the Legislature are two more $1-billion school bond issues--one for the June, 1990, ballot, the second for November, 1990. However, these measures must compete with bond issue requests by other state agencies, and the governor has been reluctant to place too many bond issues before the voters in a single election.

Honig wants to increase the proposed school bond measures to $1.5 billion each, and he also has asked for an “interim mechanism” that would make another $500 million available until new bond issues can be approved.

Even if Honig gets everything he wants--and that seems unlikely--the problem of housing all the new pupils who will be crowding into California schools will remain formidable.

“We don’t see how enough general obligation bonds can be enacted to meet the need,” said Diane Kirkham, the superintendent’s special adviser on school construction.

She said the problem can be solved only if local districts are allowed to pass school bond issues by majority vote, instead of the two-thirds vote now required.