Robust S.D. Economy Predicted

Driven by the dynamos of tourism and defense contracts, San Diego’s economy will continue to outpace the state and nation in the 1990s, Wells Fargo Bank’s chief economist said Monday.

Joseph A. Wahed, who is scheduled to speak at today’s Business Outlook forum sponsored by the Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce at the San Diego Marriott, said San Diego’s economic output will grow at a 4.4% compounded, inflation-adjusted annual rate through 1995, which is better than the 3.7% growth rate projected for the state and the 2.7% growth rate he sees for the nation.

Wahed said he is “flabbergasted” by the “continued robustness” of San Diego’s economy illustrated, for example, by the 3.7% growth in jobs last year and the 8.2% bump in retail sales. Of the state’s metropolitan areas, only the San Bernardino/Riverside area is outpacing San Diego economically, and that’s on a much smaller economic base, he said.

San Diego owes its well-being to a “balance of economic growth and quality of life,” Wahed said, that has attracted tourism, retirees and the military. The most ominous threat to that well-being is the prospect of pollution and a deteriorating infrastructure, including roads, hospitals and schools, he said.

One immediate problem for the region is how, in the midst of slow-growth sentiment, to provide adequate housing for the 457,000 in added population that the county can expect by 1995, which would bring the county’s population to nearly 2.9 million, he said. At least 120,000 more housing units will be required by then, he added.

“Soft spots” in San Diego’s economy are in construction because of overbuilding in commercial projects and in the defense spending sector. Defense procurements and contracts in the state were down $6 billion over the past three years and will be slashed more in coming years, he said.