Koch Faces Crucial Test in Mayoral Race Today : Dinkins Has Edge in N.Y. Democratic Primary, Poll Shows; Giuliani Is Favored in GOP Contest

NEW YORK —  Voters go to the polls today to decide whether Edward I. Koch’s dream of an unprecedented fourth term at City Hall will be kept alive or whether New York will have a chance in November to elect its first black mayor.

The contest could be the closest Democratic primary in a dozen years, a classic clash of constituency politics. Political strategists agree that backlash and bigotry are the imponderables, and turnout will be the key.

A last-minute poll showed Manhattan Borough President David N. Dinkins--who rose from selling shopping bags on the streets of Harlem to become one of the city’s leading black politicians--holding a statistically insignificant single-point lead over Koch--who over 12 years has come to symbolize the vibrancy, brashness and combativeness of New York to the nation.

“Mayday, Mayday . . . I need your help,” the mayor pleaded at a last-minute rally in Queens.

“We feel comfortable,” Dinkins said Monday. “We are at worst even . . . our superior field organization should make the difference.”

Two other candidates, City Comptroller Harrison J. Goldin and businessman Richard Ravitch, who polls show are mired in single digits, are not expected to be significant factors in the race.

In the Republican primary, former U.S. Atty. Rudolph W. Giuliani was heavily favored to defeat cosmetics millionaire Ronald Lauder, who has spent more than $11 million of his fortune in an effort to influence a relatively tiny electorate. Only 420,000 Republicans are registered in New York City, and, compared to the Democratic primary (with some 2.1 million potential voters), the turnout could be minuscule.

Koch was reelected to his third term as mayor in 1985 with a record 76% of the vote in a triumph of coalition politics.

Koch Faces Mounting Woes

But since then the city has faced severe problems, making Koch a big underdog when campaigning began earlier this year. Eight-year-olds in some poor neighborhoods act as lookouts for drug dealers, the municipal hospital system is strained by AIDS, homelessness is endemic, many public schools are in crisis and the specter of corruption lingers at City Hall.

The pivotal event of the primary occurred late in August--the killing of a black teen-ager by a member of a white neighborhood gang in the Bensonhurst section of Brooklyn. Even as the yellow chalk outline on the sidewalk, where Yusuf Hawkins’ body had fallen, was still fresh, the long-simmering issue of race was catapulted into the midst of the election.

And when black demonstrators were later jeered in the predominantly white neighborhood, the racial issue was thrust even further into the spotlight.

Before the shooting, Koch had staged one of the most dramatic comebacks in New York’s political history to once again become a formidable candidate, stressing his record while raising doubts about Dinkins’ leadership abilities.

A ‘Contender’

“When he said he wanted to run, it was a terribly uphill fight. But now, the mayor feels, in the words of Marlon Brando in the movie “On the Waterfront,” he is a ‘contender,’ ” said David Garth, Koch’s longtime campaign adviser and close friend.

But Bensonhurst slowed that momentum, largely turning the election into a referendum on racial relations in the nation’s largest city.

That fact was underscored by the last-minute appeals both candidates made to voters.

Speaking over the weekend from the pulpit of a black church in Brooklyn, the 64-year-old mayor sought to convince parishioners that both he and his 62-year-old opponent “want to see the city united.”

Dinkins said: “We don’t live in a melting pot. We live in a gorgeous mosaic of persons of varying ethnic backgrounds and religions that come together to make this city strong. I say to people, vote your hopes and not your fears, vote your conscience and vote your beliefs. If people do that, I think I will succeed, and, together, we can unite New York City.”

Both Dinkins and Koch started from strong natural bases of support. In last year’s Democratic presidential primary, blacks contributed 32% of the vote, casting their ballots solidly for the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

Labor Seen as Key

But Dinkins, who is the son of a barber and who earned his law degree from Brooklyn Law School, is a far more subdued candidate. During the campaign, Jackson appeared at his side, seeking to help him energize his natural constituency. Even more significant may be the support of organized labor.

Some of New York’s biggest unions, including the United Federation of Teachers and District Council 37 of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, have for months been runing impressive vote canvassing operations on his behalf.

“We have 134,000 members in the union, plus 30,000 retirees,” said Stanley Hill, District Council 37’s executive director, who said that the union’s surveys show over 80% of its personnel voting for Dinkins. “We are talking a very strong base for David.”

Hill said that his council will have over 1,200 political operatives in the field today. That number is multiplied by other unions and a network of black churches.

Koch’s advisers hope the mayor’s natural constituency, Jewish voters, will just about equal Dinkins’ strength in the black community. Strategists for both candidates believe that the election may well rest with Catholics, who have been lukewarm to both contenders, and with the Latino vote, which polls show splitting about evenly.

Kennedy Aids Dinkins

In an effort to energize the Catholic and Latino communities, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) campaigned with Dinkins last week. Koch, also courting these votes, reconciled with an old political enemy, former Democratic Rep. Herman Badillo, who once ran against him for mayor.

Some analysts believe that the polls may not reflect the extent of racial bias in the city. In elections in other cities where minority candidates have sought office, some voters who said they would support those contenders voted otherwise in the privacy of the election booth.

To what degree this will be a factor in New York is unknown. Another traditional source of error in pre-primary polls is the difficulty in projecting who will actually vote.

In such a close contest, strategists for both candidates said even the rhythm of how Election Day is portrayed in the media could make a difference. If reports of large turnouts in black neighborhoods are broadcast, turnout could rise in other areas of the city.