ANALYSIS : A Battle for Thursday Night Is Shaping Up

The mysteries of ABC’s groundbreaking “Twin Peaks” series are twofold for TV--whether it will encourage more original shows, and whether it’s a flash in the pan or will hold up in the ratings, thereby providing a crack in NBC’s potent Thursday lineup led by Bill Cosby.

Eyebrows were raised last week when “Twin Peaks,” a droll Gothic soap opera set in the Pacific Northwest, made a muscular ratings debut. The two-hour pilot ranked No. 5 for the week, with 33% of the national audience.

But what really made ABC and other network executives sit up and take notice was when the first “Twin Peaks” episode in its regular time slot, 9-10 p.m. Thursdays--against the virtually impregnable “Cheers”--also did well.

It lost to “Cheers” respectably, with 26% of the audience compared to 33% for the veteran sitcom, but beat “Grand” and registered an excellent 27% tune-in for the entire hour.

This week’s national ratings, scheduled for release today, will reflect last Thursday’s impressive showing by “Twin Peaks.” But the remaining half-dozen episodes this season, starting this Thursday, may be more indicative of the show’s staying power because many viewers undoubtedly tuned in last week to see how the cliffhanger of the April 8 debut was resolved.

It wasn’t. That’s the whole idea. This a continuing mystery, and the appeal of the show is in its original style and characters and its observations of human nature.

NBC has the most to lose in ratings competition if “Twin Peaks” holds steady because the much-talked-about series has already shown that the Thursday lineup anchored by “The Cosby Show” and “Cheers” may finally be vulnerable. And since it’s the night that is the backbone of NBC, any real challenger is dangerous to the No. 1 network.

How “Twin Peaks” fares from here on in is especially important because “The Cosby Show” is in its sixth season, “Cheers” is in its eighth and neither will be around forever. Cosby is a franchise-maker: “Family Ties” became a hit following it, and “A Different World,” now in that coveted slot, would never have gotten off the ground except for Cosby’s show.

Even if “Twin Peaks” holds on, Thursdays will continue to be NBC’s for the foreseeable future. But, besides showing that inroads can be made competitively, “Twin Peaks” also came along at a critical juncture--the month before ABC, CBS and NBC decide on their fall prime-time lineups. And it just could be that the Big Three networks, under fire for a previously lackluster season, may get the message that viewers are wide open to new ideas and original programming.

This is particularly significant at a time when viewers are defecting to cable, VCRs and independent stations. Last Thursday’s “Twin Peaks” showed how one show can have an effect in reversing that trend. During the first half hour of “Twin Peaks,” 70% of the national audience was watching the three networks, compared to 64% the week before. The second half hour had a three-network audience of 65%, compared to 60% for the previous week.

“If that keeps up, maybe it can help bring people back to network TV,” said an ABC official.

Further indicating how an original show can have an impact all on its own, “Twin Peaks” succeeded last Thursday even though it was scheduled on a low-rated ABC night and then was plopped down between two series with less than spectacular audience appeal, “Father Dowling Mysteries” and “PrimeTime Live.” Yet “Twin Peaks” did well, and therefore perhaps has already served its purpose as a sign-pointer.

ABC’s strategy going into the Thursday kamikaze mission was simple: “Cheers” will automatically get one-third of the audience, and the rest of the viewers are looking for something different, so let’s give them something different. The strategy worked in its first try, at least.

And ABC is attempting to spread the image of that difference by encouraging viewers to tape “Twin Peaks”--a clever acknowledgement that “Cheers” has a dedicated audience, but one that might be won over by an opportunity to watch both shows.

Last week’s Thursday outing also broke the myth that only younger TV viewers are looking for something different. While “Twin Peaks” did well with the audience of women 18-to-49 coveted by sponsors, it did even better with women older than 50. Fewer men tuned in than women, but the audience was about the same for both young adult and older males.