Times Orange County Poll : Bush Popularity High in O.C., Poll Shows

Although deeply dissatisfied with President Bush’s handling of the economy and the federal budget, Orange County residents view the President even more favorably today than they did when he took office, a new poll shows.

Those results, from one of the nation’s most conservative and heavily Republican areas, come at a time when the President’s popularity has taken a dive in national opinion polls.

But Bush, in Irvine today to host a GOP fund-raiser, seems to be buoyed locally by strong support for his handling of the Persian Gulf crisis, according to the Times Orange County Poll.

“Bush’s popularity in Orange County has actually increased since January of ‘89,” said pollster Mark Baldassare. “He gets real mixed reviews when you look at the specifics of his job performance, but people are very supportive of his actions in the Persian Gulf, and that’s what his popularity is all about right now.”

More than three-quarters of the registered voters who were interviewed for the poll gave Bush a favorable rating, compared to just 16% who had an unfavorable opinion. And while Republicans were overwhelmingly supportive--88% gave the President a favorable rating--even a majority of county Democrats had a positive view of him. Bush drew solid support from members of both parties, all income groups and both men and women.

The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday of this week by Mark Baldassare & Associates. Six hundred Orange County registered voters were interviewed by telephone this week, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

Republicans and Democrats alike favored Bush’s actions in the gulf, with more than six out of every 10 voters saying that they supported the Administration’s approach. A much smaller group, 18% of those interviewed, favored invading Kuwait to drive out the occupying Iraqi army, and an even smaller chunk of the sample said they would support a withdrawal of American forces from the region.

“The majority of Orange County voters favor the current U.S. military policy in the Persian Gulf crisis, that is, defending Saudi Arabia and enforcing the trade embargo against Iraq,” Baldassare said.

“It doesn’t appear that people are eager to go to war,” Baldassare said. “But neither are they ready to withdraw. . . . People seem to like this middle position he’s taken of having a presence there without endangering our forces.”

One poll respondent, Walter Moe, a retired Air Force officer living in North Tustin, agreed. “He has done what has been correct, and he acted quickly to deal with the gulf situation,” Moe said. “I think his performance there has been excellent.”

But the widespread support voiced by Orange County voters for the Administration’s major foreign policy undertaking stands in marked contrast to the view local residents have of its performance on domestic issues.

The national economy is mired in a slowdown, and Bush has struggled for months with Congress in an effort to agree on a federal budget. Both of those factors appear to have taken a toll on the President’s job performance ratings.

Only 35% of the county voters interviewed said Bush is doing a good or excellent job handling the economy, compared to 61% who rated his performance fair or poor. A majority of both Democrats and Republicans and voters of all ages and income levels gave Bush fair or poor ratings in this area.

Even more negative, however, were voters’ assessments of the President’s performance in handling the federal budget, including the question of higher taxes. Bush, who once adamantly refused to consider raising taxes, has recently backed away from that campaign pledge and agreed to endorse a deficit-cutting package that includes tax increases.

“Bush’s handling of the lengthy conflict with Capitol Hill on the federal budget and taxes draws excellent or good ratings from only 29%, while 68% rate him fair or poor,” Baldassare said. “This is his main area of weakness, the budget and taxes.”

Democrats and Republicans both faulted Bush in those areas, though the strongest negative ratings came from Democrats. Nine out of 10 Democrats rated Bush’s performance on taxes and the budget as fair or poor. A majority of county Republicans, 59%, agreed.

Although several poll respondents said Congress shares much of the blame for the budget stalemate, few were willing to let Bush off the hook entirely.

Donald Kennedy, a retired schoolteacher in Garden Grove, blamed Bush’s vacillations on the budget on what Kennedy said is the President’s lack of a clear vision for leading the country.

“Nixon brought about his downfall because of the dark side of his personality, but at least he had a purpose,” Kennedy said. “I don’t like Ronald Reagan, but he had a purpose. George Bush just doesn’t have a clear program. He has no clear purpose.”

Pam Smith of Dana Point said she believes that Congress is more at fault than Bush, but she expressed general unhappiness with her representatives in Washington. “Democrats and Republicans alike, I think they all ought to be kicked out,” she said.

That sentiment was widely echoed, as several respondents said the only way clear of Washington’s current troubles is a thorough house-cleaning. “I’m disgusted with everybody,” said Barbara Moe, a guidebook writer and Walter Moe’s wife. “I’d ship everybody out and put my son in office.”

TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL How would you rate the performance of President Bush in handling. . . The Persian Gulf Crisis Excellent/Good: 64% Don’t Know: 3% Fair/Poor: 33% Jobs and the Economy Excellent/Good: 35% Don’t Know: 4% Fair/Poor: 61% The Federal Budget and Taxes Excellent/Good: 29% Don’t Know: 3% Fair/Poor: 68% Telephone survey of 600 registered voters, Oct. 22-24.

REPORT CARD ON PRESIDENT BUSH Despite their mixed reviews of his performance in handling the nation’s economy and the federal budget, Orange County voters continue to have overwhelmingly positive opinion about President Bush.

Popularity “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of George Bush?”

Total O.C. Voters Jan. 1989 Oct. 1990 Change Favorable 70% 77% +7 Unfavorable 17 16 -1 Don’t Know 13 7 -6

Demo. Demo. Repub. Repub. Jan. 89 Oct. 90 Jan. 89 Oct. 90 Favorable 45% 54% 85% 88% Unfavorable 32 37 7 7 Don’t Know 23 9 8 5

Military Options in the Persian Gulf “At this time, which of the following three U.S. military options do you most favor in the Persian Gulf? (1) U.S. military forces should be used only to defend Saudi Arabia and enforce the trade embargo against Iraq. (2) U.S. military forces now stationed in the Persian Gulf should attack the Iraqi army and invade Kuwait, or (3) U.S. military forces now stationed in the Persian Gulf should be withdrawn from the region. Defend Saudi Arabia: 63% Attack and Invade Kuwait: 18% Withdraw: 12% Other: 1% Don’t Know: 6% Gorbachev’s Popularity “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mikhail S. Gorbachev?” Jan. 1989 Unfavorable: 15% Favorable: 72% Don’t Know: 13% Oct. 1990 Unfavorable: 12% Favorable: 77% Don’t Know: 11% Source: Times Orange County Poll