THE TIMES POLL : Americans Back Bush Decision Overwhelmingly

Americans overwhelmingly support President Bush’s decision to attack Iraq, a new Los Angeles Times Poll found.

But after the first searing flash of combat, Americans hold high expectations that may create political complications for the President if the war drags on or fails to depose Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, the poll found. And nearly half of those surveyed are worried that Israel will be drawn into the war and fracture the delicate coalition assembled to confront Hussein.

The poll revealed that Americans hold equivocal views on how Israel should respond to missile attacks from Iraq. Over three-fourths of those surveyed agreed that Israel would be “justified in retaliating” against Iraq; but by more than 2 to 1 they believed Israel should let the United States respond rather than attacking Iraq itself.

Just one-third of those surveyed said the Iraqi salvos against Israel would lengthen the war; about four-in-ten said it would make no difference. By 47% to 37%, respondents worried that if Israel attacks Iraq “America’s Arab allies will turn against the multinational coalition.”

The poll also found that more than two-thirds of Americans expect terrorists to “strike in the United States as a result of the war” and that over 60% believe it is inappropriate to protest the war “now that U.S. forces are in combat.”

In a dramatic demonstration of Americans’ tendency to rally around the President during times of crisis, over 80% of those surveyed said they backed Bush’s decision to go to war with Iraq. By a 3-1 margin, those polled said Bush had given economic sanctions enough time to work before launching the attack.

That represented a dramatic surge in support for the President since the outbreak of hostilities: In a Times poll completed only last Sunday, nearly half of those surveyed said the United States should rely longer on sanctions before beginning military action.

In the new survey, though, the fact of war eroded opposition to war among virtually all groups in society.

Though women remained somewhat less supportive of the war effort than men, the gender gap tightened as compared with previous surveys: 76% of women approved of the decision to attack Iraq, as compared with 87% of men. Two other groups that had been skeptical--Democrats and families earning less than $20,000--also backed the decision to attack by margins of more than 3 to 1. Blacks, who had been overwhelmingly opposed to war in earlier surveys, now split evenly.

The Times Poll, supervised by Assistant Polling Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,406 adults from Thursday afternoon, the day following the initial U.S. attacks on Iraq, through Friday evening; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Bush enters the most difficult test of his public life with an overwhelming vote of confidence from the American public, the poll found. Buoyed by the optimistic reports from the battlefield, Bush’s overall approval rating soared to 85%, the highest level recorded in a Times poll since he took office.

That showing rivals the highest levels recorded for any President since World War II: only Harry S. Truman and John F. Kennedy, both in the third months of their Administrations, reached comparable heights, according to Gallup surveys.

Almost 9 out of 10 of those surveyed approve of Bush’s handling of the gulf crisis; and by a margin of more than 8 to 1, the public trusts Bush to make the right decisions in the conduct of the war. Even 85% of Democrats trust Bush to decide wisely in the crisis.

Pollsters in both parties had expected support for the President to crest once fighting began--if perhaps not quite so emphatically. But experts caution that enthusiasm for the war will inexorably decline if casualties mount or if fighting drags on inconclusively.

With the clamorous success of the first days’ air raids on Iraq and Kuwait amplifying his words, Bush has largely succeeded in dispelling fears that the gulf war will bog down into another Vietnam: Only one-fifth of those surveyed expressed that concern in the latest survey, down from three-fifths in November. Just over half of those polled expect the war to last three months or less; roughly two-thirds expect no more than six months of fighting.

For the President, those numbers represent a victory on the field of public relations. But it could be a costly one if the results on the battlefield do not fulfill his promise, many analysts say. The poll shows that those who expect fighting to last the longest show the least enthusiasm for the decision to fight at all.

Those who believe the war will last less than a month back the attack by 8 to 1; those who expect the war to last from one to six months endorse the move by over 5 to 1; and those who anticipate more than six months of shooting give approval to the war by just over a 7-3 margin.

Historically, though, the number of casualties, rather than the length of conflict, has been the most important factor in the growth of public opposition to wars, according to research by John Mueller, a political scientist at the University of Rochester. In both Vietnam and Korea, opposition to the war grew by 15 percentage points once the casualty toll hit 1,000 and by another 15 percentage points once it reached 10,000.

Though the gulf war begins with a large cushion of public support, the Times poll suggests that a similar dynamic could develop if ground combat begins and casualties mount. Less than 40% of those polled said they would consider the war with Iraq successful if more than 1,000 U.S. troops were killed.

If the public is expecting a relatively brief war, it also anticipates a decisive one. Roughly 90% of those surveyed said they would not consider the war successful if Hussein “keeps an oil field and some of Kuwait.”

Even more strikingly, by a margin of 2 to 1 those polled said they would not consider it a victory if Hussein remains in power in Iraq--even though President Bush has never declared Hussein’s overthrow one of the coalition’s war aims. The belief that only Hussein’s removal would constitute a victory is most strongly held by the President’s political base: those Americans who support his decision to attack.

On the domestic front, a solid majority of those polled said they considered anti-war protests inappropriate. But that question divided respondents along ideological and demographic lines more than any other issue in the survey.