NEWS ANALYSIS : Hussein Aiming to Drag Out War, Wear Out Enemy : Strategy: He doles out military might in bits, prolonging ability to fight and leaving foes confounded.

JERUSALEM —  By preserving its finite supply of air power, Iraq appears to have designed a strategy to prolong the war over Kuwait in hopes of--at a minimum--wearing down American and allied resolve to continue, and perhaps even forcing a cease-fire through a broadening of the conflict, military observers in Israel and Jordan say.

The comments conflict with those expressed in the first days of the war by American officials who ridiculed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein for failing to put up much of a fight against the barrage of air attacks on his capital, military installations and key industrial sites.

The experts describe what amounts to a military-scale strategy of “rope-a-dope,” a boxing style made famous by former heavyweight champion Muhammad Ali, who in some of his later bouts was content to sit back and take punches for much of a round--only to lash out at intervals to win points and confound his opponent.

“Saddam’s strategy is to outlast his opponent,” said Joseph Alpher, a defense expert at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, in Tel Aviv. “He has been economizing on his forces, waiting for the ideal moment to inflict maximum losses on the allies.”

A Western diplomat and military observer in Amman, the Jordanian capital, suggested that Hussein hopes that the global public will tire of carnage quickly or that the Arab public will rise up in revolt against the punishment dealt to a fellow Arab state.

“Saddam is anything but crazy,” the diplomat said. “He intends to protect himself and wait. Time is in his favor. Many things can happen in Western public opinion or in the Arab world.”

The diplomat likened Hussein’s strategy to an undermanned guerrilla force that uses theatrical, even if ineffective, attacks to show it is on a par with a superior enemy.

Added another Jordan-based military observer: “Saddam foresaw the coming tactics against him and organized protection for his most vital weapons, the mobile missile launchers and his aviation.”

The experts caution that their analysis is necessarily crippled by a lack of precise knowledge of Iraq’s prewar resources and the damage being done by U.S. and allied bombers. No one seems to know exactly how many of Hussein’s 700-jet air force is intact. Estimates of the numbers of the elusive mobile Scud launchers that Hussein has used to hurl missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia range from fewer than 10 to 40.

In any case, just as he stretched his country’s supply of food and industrial goods by instituting stiff rationing during the prewar trade embargo, so is Hussein doling out his military might in small bits, experts say. And he has been able to pull off a few surprises: He has repeatedly launched missiles and sent up airplanes to do battle with invading craft, even after U.S. officials reported that his airfields and launchers were being put out of commission.

“Saddam Hussein and Iraq have recovered from the first shock of war. He is ready for a long war of attrition,” said Brig. Gen. Nachman Shai, a spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces. Shai predicted the war could last “weeks or months.”

Hussein himself has been uncommonly open about his plans. During an inflamed speech broadcast in Iraq on Sunday, Hussein warned that his “air force has not been used, nor has the navy. The weight and effect of our ready missile force has not yet been applied in full.”

“After a while, (the enemy) will begin to feel frustrated, and his defeat will be certain,” Hussein predicted. “In the coming period, the response of Iraq will be on a larger scale, using all the means and potential that God has given us and which we have so far only used in part.”

Hussein is preserving his air force in order to, at a crucial moment, strike blows at American troops as they try to dislodge his forces from Kuwait. The objective, besides protecting his own men, would be to erode support for the war in the United States. “He hopes to use the air force to inflict maximum losses on the allies,” said Alpher, the Jaffee Center researcher. “So far, he has managed as well as he can.”

Hussein’s call for Arabs abroad to attack American interests--a phrase widely viewed as a euphemism for a terror campaign--is also aimed at the American and Western public. Theoretically, common citizens will tire of a war that breaks out in their own back yard.

“Hussein wants to turn this into a war of attrition,” remarked Col. Ranaan Gissin, another spokesman for the Israeli army.

Hussein is playing psychological games designed to affect key audiences.

The most important audience for the missile attacks on Israel was not the Israelis, but the Arab public, some experts believe. The best thing for Iraq would be for Israel to retaliate; Hussein could then call for an Arab-wide war against the old Zionist enemy, a call that might be hard to resist in Syria and Jordan and perhaps elsewhere. Non-Arab but staunchly Muslim Iran might also be put in an embarrassing position.

“Hussein’s motivation to attack Israel is still very high. The next stage could be chemical weapons via missile or aircraft,” warned Gissin, the Israeli army spokesman. Late last week, the Iraqis fired barrages of conventionally armed missiles at targets in Israel, damaging several buildings and leaving at least 28 Israelis wounded.

A wider war involving Israel and Arab states would almost surely bring calls for a cease-fire and raise pressure for subsequent talks to take up not only Kuwait but also Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Such linkage has been a diplomatic goal of Hussein since he invaded his tiny, oil-rich neighbor Kuwait on Aug. 2. Many observers have concluded that Hussein is confident that Israel will never give up the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip, so he will never have to surrender Kuwait.

Even if Israel holds back from retaliating, Hussein has already become known as the first leader to strike effectively at the heart of the Jewish state. If the war drags on, his stature could rise to heroic proportions, making Arab regimes look feeble by comparison and perhaps bringing about their overthrow and a shift of alliances.

Along that line, the attacks on Saudi Arabia are meant to show up Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd, whom Hussein routinely refers to as a traitor.

There are numerous pitfalls in Hussein’s military and psychological strategy, some of which have become evident. Israel has yet to take the bait and hit back for the Iraqi missile raids. Arab public opinion is still described as “manageable” by observers here and in Amman.

It is far from clear that the American public will cave in quickly to a difficult war. Hussein may have overreached by putting American and allied prisoners of war on display in a bald effort to discourage the West; initial response to the video exhibition of the dazed airmen has been one of anger.

Laying back also means that Iraq suffers enormous damage to military bases and key military factories as well as power plants and oil refineries. U.S. officials have indicated that allied bombs have struck at nuclear facilities inside Iraq.

Meanwhile, Hussein’s troops are under unbridled air attack, suffering casualties virtually before firing a shot.

“If Saddam is wiped out eventually, no one is going to remember how he did in the first week,” a senior Israeli official said.