NEWS ANALYSIS : Shamir Drinks Up Praise for Restraint--and Plots Revenge on Iraq

JERUSALEM —  Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir has been chided for years for a stolid, inactive approach to Israel’s pressing problems--not just finding a solution to the Palestinian problem, but also resolving the country’s economic woes and preparing for the influx of Soviet immigrants.

In the Persian Gulf crisis, however, Shamir’s relentless immobility is viewed as a plus.

After Iraq launched volleys of Scud missiles at Israeli cities, the Bush Administration asked Israel to refrain from hitting back. And Shamir, to the praise of traditional supporters and rivals alike, complied.

Even his relative silence during the war--he has made few public statements--is considered a virtue, because it carries with it an implied threat that at some point, Israel can and will strike back. Such menace satisfies Israel’s yearning to feel in control of its destiny, observers say.

“For his 75 years, Shamir has been waiting for his moment, and this is it. He is doing the two things he does best--waiting and plotting revenge,” remarked columnist and author Zeev Chafetz, in reference to Shamir’s careers before he entered politics: underground terrorist leader and secret agent.

“Suddenly, Shamir’s do-nothing approach is appropriate,” said pollster Elihu Katz.

Surveys by Katz’s Israel Institute of Applied Science indicate that Israelis overwhelmingly support the policy of restraint, despite the country’s history of retaliating hard for terrorist or guerrilla attacks. The public, Katz believes, understands that retaliation creates risks. In addition, the international support given Israel’s policy amounts to a “hug” that has cooled passions.

“This can also be seen as a reflection of support for Shamir,” Katz added.

Shamir’s longstanding expressions of distrust of Arab motives and his uncompromising stand against the Palestinian demand for an independent state fit the national mood, observers say. Compromise on Arab issues is very much out of fashion.

“He can sit and urge restraint, and the public knows he is not doing it for sentimental reasons,” said Aryeh Naor, a political commentator. “No one confuses Shamir for a dove.”

Shamir is not only the toast of local politicians, including longtime foes like Labor Party leader Shimon Peres, but also of visiting Jewish groups from abroad who applaud him as never before.

Shadowing the adulation are short-term and long-range political risks for Shamir in his no-retaliation policy.

If Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is able to launch a chemical, biological or nuclear attack on Israel and cause devastating casualties, Shamir will be blamed, observers say. “No one will remember anything except that this was the prime minister who let Saddam Hussein kill Jews,” said Joseph Alpher, deputy director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv.

Shamir supporters in his Likud Party say that Housing Minister Ariel Sharon, a hawk and Shamir’s chief rival, is taking notes on Cabinet discussions on the restraint policy in case it ends in disaster.

Further down the road, Shamir must grapple with the expected postwar diplomatic pressure to resolve the Palestinian conflict. He was upset by a recent U.S.-Soviet statement that appeared to foreshadow pressure for such talks.

During a recent Cabinet meeting, Shamir said the nation must ensure that global sympathy for Israel be translated into a bulwark against outside pressure for what he would consider an unacceptable resolution to the Palestinian impasse.

“Now, we must focus all attention on stopping this tyrant (Hussein),” he told the Cabinet. “But already, today, we must transform the identification (with Israel) into an understanding of our interests.”

Sunday’s surprise inclusion of Rehavam Zeevi, the anti-Arab former general, in the Cabinet was in part explained by the need to shore up Shamir’s ruling majority in case Israel is pressed to give up the West Bank and Gaza Strip in return for peace with the Palestinians. Zeevi, like Shamir, is staunchly opposed to any such compromise, although Zeevi goes a step further and promotes the expulsion of Arabs.

Shamir suspects that, despite Israel’s compliance with U.S. wishes to refrain from attacking Iraq, it is still being treated by Washington as something of an outsider, aides say. The low profile imposed by Washington seems to imply ostracism.

In recent remarks to a visiting French legislator, Shamir said Israel would not only like to strike back at Iraq, but also “is very interested in playing an active role in the struggle against Iraq.”