Oscar Nominations--Do They Help?

The impact of the Oscars on home video, which is usually positive, could be negative for retailers this year.

The short-term effect of the nominations, announced Wednesday, is to increase rentals of movies already in the home-video marketplace. For instance, there should be heightened renter interest in “Dick Tracy,” which has seven nominations, and “Pretty Woman,” whose star, Julia Roberts, is up for best actress.

“The Oscars affect rentals in a big way, maybe more than any single event of the year,” said Brad Burnside, who runs the Video Adventure chain in the Chicago area.

The negative effect is tied to the nominated movies that are still in theatrical release--the bulk of the nominees, actually--and won’t be out on cassette until spring or summer. Since Oscar recognition invariably boosts ticket sales of movies still in theaters, such as “Dances With Wolves,” “The Godfather Part III,” “Awakenings” and “The Grifters,” the bigger box-office figures may drive up the price that retailers have to pay when they hit home video. Retailers already have been reeling from the soft rental market of the last six months and are fighting further price hikes of rental titles.

For consumers, the higher price to retailers may translate into higher rental fees.

Paul Wagner, vice president of public affairs at Orion, said that the price for “Dances With Wolves” hasn’t been determined yet, but conceded that the movie, which already has grossed more than the $100 million, could be in the $140-million range when it comes to home video. That would make it a candidate for a $100 retail sales price.

Paramount’s “The Godfather Part III” may also hit the rental market at $100, particularly since two of the company’s movies, “The Hunt For Red October” and “Ghost,” have already reached that plateau.

“Ghost,” whose nominations include best picture and best supporting actress (Whoopi Goldberg), is in a unique position. It’s due out March 21, shortly before the Oscar ceremonies. Because it has grossed $213.5 million, this romance was going to be a smash rental anyway. In anticipation of Oscar victories, many retailers will be inclined to buy more copies. But will they be deterred by its steep price?

“I certainly will, and others probably will be too,” Burnside said.

Small-budgeted, critically acclaimed movies often benefit most from the increased audience awareness created by Oscar recognition. “Last year, ‘My Left Foot’ was an excellent, small movie that did much better in home video because it won Oscars,” Burnside explained. “Otherwise, many people wouldn’t have known much about it.”

This year, the small movies that could get a strong boost from the nominations are “The Field” and “Longtime Companion.” When “The Field,” starring best-actor nominee Richard Harris, comes to home video, retailers will certainly buy more copies than they would have without his nomination. For one thing, box-office figures will be up. For most retailers, box-office performance is the best indicator of rental demand--the more a movie earns in theaters, the more popular it will be among renters.

“Longtime Companion,” featuring best-supporting actor nominee Bruce Davison, is already on the home-video market, but has been doing only modest rental business. Now more people will probably be inspired to check out this AIDS drama.