Some Fear UC Fee Hike Will Harm Higher Education : College: They say Cal State system could be overloaded with students who shun top-tier schools. Officials reply that financial aid will soften blow.

In the wake of the 40% increase in fees and tighter admissions standards enacted by the UC Board of Regents last week, some higher education experts in California are worried about shifts and ultimately gridlock in student enrollments at the UC, Cal State and community college campuses.

“It’s terribly worrisome. I think we are going to see kids going to things other than college, either being locked out or scared out. It’s not a happy situation,” said Kenneth O’Brien, executive director of the California Post-Secondary Education Commission, which advises the Legislature.

Several thousand students, primarily from middle-income families, will feel forced not to attend UC and will wind up at a less expensive Cal State campus, where entrance is also easier, according to a study by the post-secondary commission. A similar movement from Cal States to community colleges is expected after the Cal State system raises its fees next month. And community college officials, who run the most open and least costly of the three public systems, are scared that they will have to turn away more students from overbooked classes because of the state budget crisis.

“It’s sort of a trickle-down effect,” explained Ann Reed, vice chancellor for public affairs in the state community college system. “We do very much fear there will be repercussions that will be difficult to absorb.”

However, officials of the nine-campus UC system insist that their fee increase, double that proposed by Gov. Pete Wilson, will cause little such movement because needy students will receive sufficient increases in financial aid. Besides, they add, the average parental income of UC undergraduates is above $50,000, a level that should enable families to absorb the $650 raise in basic undergraduate fees. California residents this fall will pay fees of $2,274, not including room, board or activities fees.

UCLA Chancellor Charles E. Young said he is concerned that students will be scared away without reason in what he called “a self-fulfilling prophecy” of the rhetoric in protests against the fee increases.

“We believe that if a student was able to come this year, he will be no less able to come next year,” Young said. “We are trying to get that message across. Whether they hear it and whether they hear it and believe it is another matter. So is whether the affluent, educated element of the public is likely to hear it and make a rational conclusion more than those who might need it most.”

UC administrators stress that the new UC fees will be $150 below the average of high-quality public institutions in other states and a fraction of tuition at private institutions. Student leaders counter that the full cost of a UC education, including housing, transportation and books, will average about $10,200 next year, at least $2,000 above the national average of public universities.

Students don’t believe promises that financial aid will cover the increases, according to Shahed Amanullah, executive vice president of the UC Berkeley student government. Particularly upset are students who didn’t qualify for aid previously and may now need it to pay the higher bills, he said.

“There is this new class of students formed who never even tried to get it before. We keep telling them, ‘Good luck, but don’t expect too much.’ ” Amanullah, a senior civil engineering major from Fullerton, predicted that more students will be taking semesters off to work full time.

Ellis McCune, acting chancellor of the 20-campus Cal State system, also said the state budget will never provide enough financial aid to meet all needs. “There is always some group of students at the margin for whom even a relatively modest fee increase will push out or move them to a cheaper form of education. So I would anticipate a shift from UC to us and from us to community colleges,” he said.

Wilson has proposed a 20% annual fee hike, to $936 excluding living costs and activities charges, for a full-time Cal State student who is a California resident. McCune disagreed with speculation that the UC action makes a 40% raise at Cal State inevitable when that system’s Board of Trustees meets on the issue March 12-13 in Long Beach. Unlike his UC counterparts, McCune said, he will not push for any particular fee raise.

“What we are going to do is to present to the board information about implications of raising fees 10%, 20% and probably 40% just for comparison,” McCune said. “I suspect this may be an interesting discussion. . . . My guess is the board is going to be reluctant to go beyond the 20% in the governor’s budget.”

Trustees will be reminded that about half of Cal State students are financially independent of their parents while only 15% of UC undergraduates are. That means Cal State students may be less able or willing to pay higher fees, particularly if increased financial aid offers more loans than grants.

“You can’t assume that all students who go to college are 18 years old. The average age on this campus is between 25 and 27 and most of them have other obligations,” said Kim Williams, a Cal State Los Angeles senior who heads the Cal State system student association. That group will ask the Legislature to maintain the existing state policy that fees should not increase more than 10% in a single year.

“I don’t think the state has its priorities straight. In one instance, they say education is important. And then, in the next instance, they make it difficult for students to attend campus,” added Williams, who also predicted that more Cal State students will try to enroll at community colleges for lower division courses.

A preliminary study by the post-secondary commission estimates that the UC fee increase will annually cause about 3,000 potential UC students, mainly from middle-class families who don’t qualify for much aid, to attend a Cal State or community college instead. Work is not complete yet on the possible effects of a Cal State cost hike, according to analyst Karl Engelbach.

Such effects due to cost would be in addition to those from the tightening of admission standards at UC, which is expected to disqualify several thousand more students each year; details of that UC change are expected in May. Cal State is not immediately planning to alter its entrance rules, which are designed to accommodate the top academic third of high school graduates, compared to the top 12.5% for UC. But Cal State administrators say some restrictions--possibly, even an admissions lottery--may lie a few years ahead.

Already, overcrowding is causing more Cal State campuses to more strictly enforce application deadlines than in previous years and to consider cuts in various programs. Community colleges, where fees are expected to increase by $20 a year to $120, are currently turning away increasing numbers of students from even meat-and-potatoes classes in English and math.

“We are bursting at the seams already,” said Bruce Smith, a spokesman for Santa Monica College. “And my educated guess is we will start to feel even more of an enrollment squeeze next year.”

With the national recession, California, of course, is not alone in facing funding problems for higher education. Public colleges in at least half the states expect sharply higher fees in the fall, cutbacks in services or a combination of both, experts say. For example, tuition at the State University of New York rose 22%, to $1,650 for residents, a few weeks ago, and Gov. Mario Cuomo wants another $500 increase by next fall. The University of Oregon is debating program cutbacks and a proposal to raise tuition 37%, to $2,696. Massachusetts may close several of its state college campuses.

Along with the fee increases, the UC system is eliminating 1,000 non-teaching jobs and cutting other spending to cope with a decline in state funding. Some student leaders and legislators suggest that UC administration should be trimmed more and professors should teach more classes to avoid the 40% fee hike.

That kind of debate is being echoed nationwide, according to Aims McGuinness, an official at the Education Commission of the States, a Denver-based think tank that advises state governments. “I think people in higher education and state governments now realize these are long-term issues that are going to require major restructuring of the ways universities are led, managed and financed,” McGuinness said.

COLLEGE COSTS COMPARISON

The figures below from selected campuses show tuition and education fees for the current academic year plus all other costs estimated for an in-state, full-time, undergraduate student, living on campus. While UC Regents voted last week to raise their fees, increases for next year at many other institutions have not yet been finalized.

SCHOOL TUITION/FEES*: OTHER COSTS** Univ.of Florida $1,300 $6,400 Gainesville Univ.of Michigan $3,366 $6,183 Ann Arbor Univ. of Minnesota $2,587 $4,418 Twin Cities (Minneapolis) State Univ. of New York $1,650 $6,105 Stony Brook Note: Governor has proposed a $500 increase in tuition for this fall. Univ. of Texas $1,050 $6,600 Austin Claremont McKenna $13,850 $6,190 College Pomona College $13,900 $7,330 Mills College $12,700 $5,740 Note: Tuition for ‘91-’92 will increase to $13,500. Occidental College $13,695 $6,808 Note: Tuition for ‘91-’92 will increase to $14,517. Stanford Univ. $14,280 $7,840 Note: Tuition for ‘91-’92 will increase to $15,102. USC $14,378 $8,067

SCHOOL TOTAL Univ.of Florida $7,700 Gainesville Univ.of Michigan $9,549 Ann Arbor Univ. of Minnesota $7,005 Twin Cities (Minneapolis) State Univ. of New York $8,055 Stony Brook Note: Governor has proposed a $500 increase in tuition for this fall. Univ. of Texas $7,650 Austin Claremont McKenna $20,040 College Pomona College $21,230 Mills College $18,440 Note: Tuition for ‘91-’92 will increase to $13,500. Occidental College $20,503 Note: Tuition for ‘91-’92 will increase to $14,517. Stanford Univ. $22,120 Note: Tuition for ‘91-’92 will increase to $15,102. USC $22,445

* THE CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY SYSTEM (all figures from 1990-’91)

SCHOOL TUITION/FEES*: OTHER COSTS** TOTAL CSU Fullerton $952 $7,006 $7,958 CSU Long Beach $892 $7,424 $8,316 CSU Northridge $972 $7,294 $8,266 Cal Poly Pomona $820 $6,892 $7,712

Note: Gov. Wilson has proposed a 20% increase in the education fee for all CSUs.

* THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SYSTEM (all figures from 1990-’91)

SCHOOL TUITION/FEES*: OTHER COSTS** TOTAL UC Berkeley $1,998 $7,434 $9,432 UC Irvine $1,874 $7,992 $9,866 UCLA $1,681 $9,010 $10,691 UC San Diego $1,813 $7,566 $9,379 UC Santa Barbara $1,721 $7,298 $9,019

NOTE: The average UC fees for 1991-’92 will be $2,470.

* Some other required fees, such as a health or activities fee, may be included.

** Includes room, board, transportation, books, personal costs.

SOURCE: Campus admissions, financial aid, public relations and treasurers’ offices. Compiled by Times editorial researcher Tracy Thomas