TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : Voters Confused by Jail Tax Issue : Election: But Measure J leads among those who plan to vote in balloting scheduled for May 14.

Orange County voters are divided and confused about a proposed half-cent sales tax for jails, but the measure leads among those who say they plan to vote in a May 14 special election, a new Times Orange County Poll shows.

At the halfway point of the abbreviated campaign, most residents still have not heard of the proposal, known as Measure J, which has generated enthusiasm at the County Hall of Administration but does not seem to have lighted a fire under the public.

Nevertheless, the proposal enjoys some important strategic advantages: Opposition falls short of a majority in all age and demographic groups, and support for the tax jumps dramatically when residents are told what it is and what the money from it is likely to pay for--namely, a new jail in Gypsum Canyon, between Anaheim’s eastern city limits and the Riverside County line.

Older residents, who make up a key voting block, are particularly supportive of that plan, and they show strong support for a tax that would accomplish it.

The Times Orange County Poll results suggest that the sales tax measure--which would push the tax rate to 7% in Orange County--could tap a reservoir of public support between now and Election Day. But with large numbers of voters undecided just six weeks before the ballots are cast, the outcome of the referendum is very much in doubt.

The poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, and it surveyed 500 Orange County registered voters by telephone last week. It has a margin of error of 4.5%.

“The measure has a good chance of winning if supporters are able to get their message out to likely voters,” Baldassare said. “The challenge, however, is getting that message out.”

Eileen Padberg, political consultant for Measure J, said the campaign conducted its own poll recently that also found voters supportive of the plan, especially after they are told the tax revenue will likely be used for a jail in Gypsum Canyon.

“That is critical to this whole thing,” Padberg said. “They want to know where their money is going to be spent.”

In particular, The Times poll found that voters seem to respond to the information that overcrowding in the county jails has resulted in the early release of many petty criminals and suspects, who are freed to make room for more serious offenders.

“I don’t think it’s right,” said Johannah Manning, a poll respondent from Laguna Beach. “People commit a crime; they should serve their full sentence. If they kept them in jail, at least they’d be off the street for that time.”

The Times poll results suggest that many respondents agree. Without any background about the jail-crowding issue or the release policies, 41% supported the tax, compared to 40% who opposed it. Once respondents were told about the early-release programs and the county’s plan to use the money for a new jail in Gypsum Canyon, support jumped to 55% and opposition fell to 35%.

If that’s a measure of the proposal’s potential, however, indications are that backers of the sales tax so far have done little to exploit it. In the poll results and in follow-up interviews, respondents indicated confusion about the measure. Only 37% of Orange County voters said they had heard of Measure J.

“I haven’t seen anything about it,” said poll respondent Tim Jones, an Anaheim resident who was unsure about the measure when he was polled but has since decided to support it. “I haven’t gotten anything in the mail or seen any ads for it.”

The uncertainty about the proposal is made even worse by the language that will appear on the ballot. Nowhere does the measure specifically say that money would be spent on a jail in Gypsum Canyon. Instead, it refers to “adult and juvenile detention facilities and courthouse facilities.”

Many of those polled were uncertain what that meant.

“How big a jail are they talking about, and where are they going to put it?” asked Eric Askew, a poll respondent from Santa Ana Heights. “Are we going to get a dinky little thing, or is this going to be enough?”

Measure J’s relative obscurity may be partly the result of the haste with which it was rushed onto the ballot. Led by Sheriff Brad Gates, supporters of the sales-tax increase for jails scrambled to clear the way for a special election after a Times Orange County Poll in January showed surprisingly strong support for such a proposal.

That poll found that 49% of county voters favored a sales-tax increase for jails, compared to 48% who opposed it--the same statistically insignificant margin that separates the pros and cons in the most recent survey. When told about the early-release policies, 60% in the January survey favored the tax and 38% opposed it, a shift again mirrored in the latest findings.

For years, the conventional wisdom among county officials had suggested that residents of conservative Orange County would soundly reject any proposal to raise their taxes for jails. The January poll, however, seemed to lend credence to the minority view, which argued that the county’s law-and-order tradition would outpoll its resistance to taxes.

Buoyed by the January poll results, supporters of a sales tax referendum prevailed, and the County Board of Supervisors cleared the way for the May 14 special election.

Since then, however, both sides have campaigned on shoestring budgets and have done little to advertise their positions. Opponents are hamstrung by a lack of money and organization, while supporters appear to be shepherding their resources for a blitz closer to the finale of the race.

“The supporters are going to have to explain this measure in detail to convince voters,” Baldassare said. “They have a big job ahead for them, not only to inform the public about Measure J, but also to make the connection between it and jail overcrowding and Gypsum Canyon.”

Supporters see that proposed facility, which has long stood at the center of the county jail debate, as the key to the overcrowding crisis, and they warn that any other solution would set back construction by several years. Opponents deride the proposed 6,720-bed facility as an extravagant “Taj Mahal.”

The general public’s view of Gypsum Canyon has always been harder to discern. But The Times Orange County Poll results, coupled with the January survey, suggest that voters are willing to accept Gypsum Canyon as a jail site provided it would end the early releases of criminals and suspects.

“The jails are overcrowded, and people who commit crimes are being let out to walk the streets earlier than they should be,” said Caroline Risley, a Garden Grove resident who was among those polled. “We have to protect ourselves and our families, and that means we can’t just be letting criminals go.”

A majority of voters in all regions of the county agreed with Risley. Support crossed all demographic lines, people in all income brackets supported the measure, and Democrats and Republicans alike backed it as well.

Women were slightly more supportive than men, and older voters were the measure’s strongest backers.

There remains some strong opposition to Gypsum Canyon, however.

James Melton, a poll respondent and Anaheim resident who lives near the proposed jail, said that he and his neighbors remain fiercely opposed to construction of a jail in Gypsum Canyon.

“From what I read, they have an overcrowding problem, and they need a new jail,” he said. “But why up here? They should put it in Santa Ana, where the criminals who are being arrested live.”

As the two sides of the Measure J debate prepare to square off, much attention will be paid to older Orange County voters.

Padberg said the jail campaign’s poll indicates that about half the expected voters will be over age 55. “Those are the people most vulnerable to crime,” she said. “I think it’s winnable.”

Because they vote more frequently than younger residents, older voters are considered important in any contest. That is even more true during a special election, when turnout is likely to be very low.

There, the latest poll results indicate that Measure J supporters have an edge, but only if they can let voters know that proceeds from the tax would pay to build a new jail.

In the recent Times poll, older voters split evenly on Measure J when they were read the ballot measure. Once they were reminded of the early-release policies, however, they overwhelmingly backed it, 58% to 25%. That was the most resounding endorsement of any age group.

That suggests that older voters are ready to consider increasing their taxes for jails, but supporters will have to persuade them. Askew, 75, said he plans to vote in the coming election, as he does in every election. But first he wants to know what he’s getting for his money.

“I don’t mind too much having to pay the extra half-cent,” Askew said, “but I want to be exactly sure what I’m going to get for it. I don’t want them to build something that won’t do the job and then come back and ask us for more.”

Times staff writer Dave Lesher contributed to this report.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 500 Orange County registered voters was conducted March 21 through 24 on weekday nights and weekend days using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5%. For the subgroup identified as most likely to vote in the May special election, the margin of error is plus or minus 7%. All respondents were guaranteed anonymity, but some agreed to be reinterviewed for this report.

Support for a Jail

When voters are given information beyond the ballot description of Measure J, support increases for the proposed half-cent sales tax for jail construction.

Response after hearing ballot wording:

Yes: 41%

No: 40%

Don’t know: 19%

Response after hearing of jail overcrowding and the proposed Gypsum Canyon site:

Yes: 55%

No: 35%

Don’t know: 10%

Source: The Times Orange County Poll

How Measure J Would Fare Six weeks before Measure J faces a May 14 vote, passage appears a tossup for two reasons: low voter awareness and the ballot wording. But the Times Orange County Poll found most voters support it when told why a jail is needed and that the leading site is in Gypsum Canyon, near Anaheim. Results are similar to those found by a Times poll in January. Question “Measure J authorizes the Orange County Regional Justice Faciities Commission to adopt a one-half of 1 percent sales tax solely for adult and juvenile detention facilities and courthouse facilities purposes. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure J?” . . . ADDITIONAL COMMENT “Because Orange County is under a federal court order to limit overcrowding in the central county jail, many who commit less serious crimes are cited and released rather than held in jail after their arrest. Also, most convicts who are serving sentenes receive early releases from the Orange County jail. The one-half cent sales tax would be used to build and operate a new county jail for which the leading site is Gypsum Canyon, 10 miles east of downtown Anaheim. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on Measure J?” . . . Times Trends for Measure J Information YES March: 55% January: 60% NO March: 35% January: 38% DON’T KNOW March: 10% January: 2% “YES” ANSWERS BALLOT VS. ARGUMENT

Ballot Argument Difference Men 44% 52% +8 Women 37% 57% +20 18-34 44% 57% +13 35-54 39% 51% +12 55+ 40% 58% +18 North 38% 54% +16 West 39% 54% +16 Central 48% 56% +8 South 41% 54% +13 Likely Voters 47% 56% +9 Aware of Measure J 44% 51% +7

Source: Baldassare & Associates