Signs Point to Bottoming in U.S. Recession : Economy: The purchasing managers’ key survey rises slightly and the slump in construction spending slows.

NEW YORK —  A key business survey and a government report released independently Monday showed that the economy remained stuck in recession in the past two months but that there are signs that the worst of the economic downturn may be over.

The National Assn. of Purchasing Management said its monthly index of levels of new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories and employment rose to 40% last month from 38.5% in February.

Separately, the Commerce Department in Washington said spending on new construction projects fell a slight 0.1% in February.

A purchasing managers’ index reading below 50 shows that the industrial sector of the economy is shrinking, and, in general, any figure below 44% points to the overall economy being in recession.

But the index has now risen for two straight months--it rose in February from 37.7% in January--signaling that the worst of the recession may be passed.

“Overall, the light at the end of the tunnel got a little brighter in March,” said Robert Bretz, chairman of the NAPM business survey committee.

But David H. Resler, chief economist with Nomura Securities International Inc., shied away from drawing any conclusions from the survey.

“I don’t think that the changes that we have in that index are very meaningful at this level,” he said.

Resler said the trade group considers the answers of all respondents equally and does not give different weights to reports by companies of varying sizes.

Whether the economy is declining at a slower pace “is not knowable from this data,” Resler said.

The index first slipped below the 44% level in October and remained there for the past three months of 1990.

There was also an overall decline in the first quarter of 1991, which ended Sunday.