Gold Bugs Become Bean Fiends in Japan : Asia: Lack of price activity in the metal prompts commodity buffs to switch to the vegetable, which may be in short supply because of weather.
TOKYO — Japanese speculators, frustrated with lack of price activity in gold, are shifting to more volatile but less glamorous commodities--red beans and rubber.
Their interest in red beans has been aroused by an unexpected recent snowfall and prospects of a cold summer in northern Japan. That has raised the possibility of a poor bean harvest.
Low rubber prices may be ripe for a rally, according to speculators.
“Since gold is not interesting, individual speculators are moving to weather-sensitive grains and technically promising rubber,” a brokerage analyst said.
Gold is usually the most popular commodity for individual investors due to its investment value and fast-paced price fluctuations.
But in the past year, the fizz has gone out of gold. Prices have practically stood still.
“Fewer and fewer people are interested in taking new positions in gold because its price worldwide has not fluctuated recently,” the analyst said.
The number of gold contracts has dropped from a record high of 516,102 on Jan. 17, when the Gulf War broke out, to 362,923 on May 16.
Profit opportunities have been in grains because of concern about planting-season weather.
Brokers said interest in red bean futures contracts has surged since prices jumped on a surprise snowfall early this month in major red-bean producing areas in Hokkaido, in northern Japan. The bean is a popular condiment in Japan.
Brokers said trading in beans may calm down in June when crop estimates are known.
If the beans play out, the next attraction “could be rubber or cotton,” said Hiroaki Itoh, an analyst at Hokushin Shohin Co., a commodity brokerage house.
“Less-costly margin requirements of those commodities are a good reason for local speculators to invest in them,” he said.
The down payment, or margin, to trade rubber is $290 for a five-metric-ton lot, to trade cotton is $362 per 4,000 pounds and to trade beans is $435 for 5,280 pounds. That compares to $805 for 2.2 pounds of gold.
Some analysts said rubber prices could be ready for a recovery from their lowest level in four years.
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