Briefing Paper : Momentum on Cyprus: New Plans to Heal Rift

The News:

After a lapse of activity during the Persian Gulf crisis, all sides are making fresh moves on the problem of Cyprus, an island country divided for more than 15 years between its Greek and Turkish communities.

Turkish President Turgut Ozal is promoting four-party political talks among Greece, Turkey and the leaders of the two Cypriot sides. The Greek and Cyprus governments have countered with a formula for a wider conference: the five members of the U.N. Security Council, Athens, Ankara, the Cypriot government and representatives of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities. While neither plan has been accepted, even their emergence indicates momentum towards solving--or at least agreeing on a method of resolving--one of the world’s most intractable political problems.

Last week, Nelson Ledsky, the State Department troubleshooter on Cyprus, visited Ankara, Athens and Nicosia, the Cypriot capital, trying to nudge the two sides towards identifying areas of possible compromise. President Bush, in a White House meeting with Cypriot President George Vassiliou last month, said Washington wants to be a catalyst for movement. Secretary of State James A. Baker III presumably delivered the same message to Rauf Dentash, leader of the Turkish Cypriots, in a separate meeting.

U.N. Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar, under whose aegis talks between the factions take place, has said an “outline agreement is possible in a few months.”

No direct talks between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots have been held in more than a year, and none are definitely scheduled. But the players are talking about talks again, and at a time when major powers are pressing to get disputes of past decades resolved.

The Background:

Antagonism between the 540,000 Greek Cypriots and 125,000 Turkish Cypriots-- co-habitants of the Mediterranean’s third-largest island, but divided by culture, religion (Christian and Muslim) and language (Greek and Turkish)--goes back decades, at least to the violent enosis movement of the 1950s which sought political union between Greece and Cyprus. Independence from Britain in 1960 and the presidency of Archbishop Makarios of the Greek Orthodox Church did little to abate the suspicion and ill feelings.

Constitutional power-sharing between the two sides broke down in the early 1960s, intercommunal fighting resumed and, in 1964, the United Nations sent in a peacekeeping force, the progenitor of the 2,000-man UNICYP command that now patrols a 112-mile-long buffer zone separating Greeks and Turks on the island.

The U.N. continued to play an important role in Cypriot affairs, keeping talks between the two sides going despite the bitter legacies of 1974. That was the year of the abortive pro-Greece coup, followed days later by an invasion from the Turkish mainland, which completed the division of the island. Greek Cypriots left the north and Turkish Cypriots fled the south. Cyprus was split by the U.N. Green Line, minefields and political intransigence on both sides. A large Turkish army deployed in the north, where it remains today.

In 1983, the Turkish Cypriots declared the territory controlled by Turkish soldiers as the independent Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus under Denktash. Only Turkey has recognized the putative state. The Republic of Cyprus, based in the Greek half of divided Nicosia and headed by Vassilou, is the internationally recognized government and a member of the United Nations.

What’s Been Accomplished:

Over the long years of U.N.-promoted talks, differences have been narrowed on a number of issues that could restore the Republic of Cyprus under one roof. And Vassiliou pledged to press face-to-face talks with Denktash in search of a solution. Before the the Gulf crisis, the two leaders met repeatedly, holding more than 100 hours of talks under U.N. sponsorship.

Vassiliou and his predecessors have given ground grudgingly but steadily on the Turkish Cypriot demand for a bi-zonal government, one that would separate the two communities territorially. The Greeks had initially floated plans for a more mixed, cantonal system. Some hard-liners still favor a return to the pre-independence governments, which gave Turkish Cypriots a portion of power.

Meanwhile, the Turkish Cypriots under Denktash have practically forsaken any hope for their proclaimed independent state in the north. The Greek Cypriots oppose any plan that even hints at recognition, and quickly turned down Ozal’s proposal of four-party talks. While Denktash clings to the concept, he’s negotiating for a federal state that would make the north a part of the whole.

Both sides say that the Republic of Cyprus should remain an independent entity. But nothing has been agreed upon firmly and the two sides have many hard decisions yet to make if the country is to be reunified.

Intractable Issues:

Still resisting consensus are the key constitutional and territorial issues: How would the federation work, and how much land would each side have?

Denktash, a rightist who holds a commanding political majority in the north, begins from the realities of 1974. Thirty-eight percent of the island was in Turkish hands. Almost all the Greek Cypriots had fled the area, making it an exclusively Turkish community, and their numbers continue to increase through settlement by mainland Turks. The well-armed Turkish army in the north provides ironclad security.

After the decades of communal violence in mixed villages and cities across the island--both sides were guilty of massacres--many Turkish Cypriots are satisfied with the current standoff.

In contrast, the Greek Cypriots’ view is that they have been driven from the north, its fertile fields and the key harbors of Famagusta and Kyrenia. They no longer control land commensurate with their population. The community has had to absorb nearly 200,000 refugees from the north. And a foreign army is deployed on Cypriot soil.

Denktash wants guarantees of security and a strong hand in a central government--what he calls a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation with political equality for the Turkish Cypriots despite their more than 4-to-1 deficit in numbers.

Vassiliou and the Greek Cypriots focus on “the three freedoms”--freedom of movement and settlement and the right to property. Denktash says the three freedoms could swamp his people. But how many Greeks would want to return to the north and live among a Turkish majority?

The Turkish Cypriot leader also chills the debate with demands for the right of self-determination. The Greek side argues that this may be a destabilizing concept.

Vassiliou agrees with the concept of some sort of ethnic power-sharing and communal zoning to assuage concerns of the Turkish minority.

Land, security and political power--these are the issues open to compromise. The Turks now control almost 40% of the island, and their leader has been quoted as saying they might settle for 29% in return for political concessions. Vassiliou insists that acceptance of a federal solution already marks a “painful compromise” for the Greeks. But Denktash and his Turkish mentors in Ankara want more--a solid share of central power.

Pressures to Deal:

The Turkish Cypriots are considered least eager to deal. They have what they want now and would only see it nibbled away in negotiations. But Denktash is not impervious to pressure.

For instance, the economy of the north is largely dependent on trade and subsidies from the mainland, the latter constituting more than 30% of the budget. And the private sector took a beating over the past 12 months with the Gulf crisis squeezing its fledgling tourist industry and the unrelated collapse of native son Asil Nadir’s Polly Peck conglomerate. Nadir was a major investor in the north.

That leaves Denktash more dependent on Ozal’s government at a time the Turkish president is giving every sign of wanting the Cyprus problem settled.

Greece, the other mother-country power in the equation, appears to have lost interest in Cyprus as a nationalist issue and supports a compromise.

That leaves the Greek Cypriots. The aging politicians hanging onto power here have made divided Cyprus their No. 1 issue, but a new generation has come of age since 1974 that cannot remember Cyprus as a unified country. This is a generation looking for business opportunities.

The Outlook:

Vassiliou may find Denktash more pliable with Ozal’s position softening. But the Cypriot president will need to move soon. His term ends in early 1993, and seeking reelection in the midst of an emotional negotiation is bad politics.

Bush and Perez de Cuellar will press for a settlement. The terms will require the pullout of the Turkish army, but secure for Ankara, Athens and perhaps London roles as guarantors of Cypriot independence--important to the Turks.

It all seems negotiable, particularly under outside pressure. But the Cypriots, both Turks and Greeks, have almost no trust in one another. Almost any sniff of a slight can break the process down again.

Cyprus: An Island Divided:

Cyprus, split into Greek and Turkish halves, is a study in contrasts. The Greeks are predominately Christian, the Turks mainly Muslim. Greeks’ incomes are nearly four times as high, and their economy is more heavily industrialized. Antagonism between the two ethnic groups is decades old. Today, 2,000 U.N. troops patrol a 112-mile-long buffer zone between their territories. The Greek Side Area: 2,277 SQ. MILES (62% of island’s total)

Population: 540,000 Annual per capita income: $8,000 Army (National Guard): 13,000 regulars with Greek officers and 60,000 reserves. Labor Profile: Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing: 15.45%

Manufacturing: 19.96%

Transportation & Communication: 6.01%

Construction: 9.27%

Public Services: 20.17%

Commerce: 22.92% Other: 6.22%

The Turkish Side Area: 1,295 SQ. MILES, (38% of island’s total) Population: 125,000 Annual per capita income: $2,200 Army (National Guard): 3,000 regulars, 15,000 reserves and 25,000 Turkish regulars Labor Profile: Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing: 32.12% Manufacturing: 10.27% Transportation & Communication: 7.2% Construction: 7.24% Public Services: 23.53% Other: 19.64%