The Road to Recovery : Survey Finds Some Industries Rolling Along but Others Are Stalled

Households are mired in debt. Unemployment stays high. Banks struggle, defense cuts back and commercial real estate remains an overbuilt mess.

Even the optimistic White House projects just 3% economic growth--half the oomph of a normal turnaround. “When the whole economy recovers at 3%, a lot of the folks get left behind,” warned David Shulman, managing director of the Salomon Brothers investment firm.

Is this a recovery, or isn’t it? It may all depend on where you sit--which niche in the vast U.S. economy is the source of your livelihood. Overall, a growing number of economists say the long-awaited upswing soon will be in motion if it hasn’t already begun.

But broad economic overviews don’t always capture the reality--favorable or otherwise--faced by elements within the economy. Scores of interviews last week with company executives and analysts in a broad array of industries nationwide offer are detailed portrait of what’s in store.

The picture provides plenty of ammunition for both optimists and pessimists.

U.S. auto makers have little to celebrate these days, but the outlook for health services is generally upbeat. The computer industry is slumping while sellers of stocks and bonds enjoyed a robust comeback that began with the Persian Gulf War. Agriculture appears in good shape, along with the food and beverage industry. But airlines and other travel-related firms are still hurting.

For the moment, at least, thrift seems the watchword of many shoppers, whether they are individual consumers with limited means or corporate representatives with deep pockets.

“There’s a limited amount of income to go round, so consumers will be bargain-hunting, and I think a lot of businesses are feeling the same way,” declared Allen Sinai, chief economist with the Boston Co.

A dramatic boost in consumer spending might be just the elixir for U.S. business in the sluggish climate that seems to be emerging. But it remains hard to see what would trigger such a turnabout. A brisk pace of rehiring the jobless would help greatly, economists agree, but employers appear cautious about building back their payrolls too quickly.

How does corporate America view its fortunes in the short run? In a multitude of ways. Here’s a special industry-by-industry report: