The Road to Recovery : Survey Finds Some Industries Rolling Along but Others Are Stalled : CONSUMER PRODUCTS

Consumers of big-ticket items like washing machines and refrigerators--and the companies that make them--are in a peculiar standoff.

“You have the consumers on one side looking across the table and thinking, ‘Well, if we just wait long enough, they’ll be coming out with those larger discounts,’ ” explained Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey. “And you have manufacturers and sellers on the other side saying, ‘I wonder when they’re going to stop waiting and start buying.’ ”

Unlike past slumps, producers have avoided getting stuck with excess inventories, so they face less pressure to slash prices. Consumers, meanwhile, remain burdened by household debt.

Despite the standoff, some detect the first, faint glimmers of an upturn. Whirlpool Corp. has recalled workers and added unscheduled production days at its clothes-dryer factory in Marion, Ohio. Black & Decker, which imposed shutdowns at three power tool plants in the first and second quarters of the year, plans to keep operations humming during the third quarter.

Leggett & Platt, a maker of headboards and footboards, recently upped production at its Springfield, Mo. plant.

Analysts say the auto industry’s steep decline has ended, but no quick rebound is in sight. “A combination of higher debt and tighter lending is going to prevent sales from really snapping back,” said Edward Sullivan, an auto analyst with the WEFA Group in Bala Cynwyd, Pa.

One sign of humble expectations: Finishing the year with sales of just 13 million cars and trucks--down from a weak 13.8 million in 1990 and 14.6 million in 1989--would be a “significant accomplishment” for the industry, said Ford Motor Co. sales analyst Joel Pitcoff.

The outlook is better for the makers of the small-ticket consumer products that the experts refer to as “nondurables.” Personal products giant Procter & Gamble is finding the old saw that consumers take showers and brush their teeth--in good times and bad--has proven true. P&G; enjoyed a strong year peddling its Who’s Who of household products from Tide detergent to Pampers disposable diapers.

But other industries, less oriented to household necessities, are still struggling.

Toy makers, to give one example, continue to have a hard time in the lean economy, despite a few exceptions, including El Segundo-based Mattel.

“If it’s a choice between school clothes and buying a new large doll that throws up, what are you going to do?” asked Tony Gervino, editor of Toy and Hobby World magazine. “Something’s got to give.”

Textile makers probably won’t see a rebound until the automobile and construction industries pick up. And while apparel probably will bounce back early in the recovery, many in that industry are pinning their hopes on the back-to-school and Christmas seasons.