Nature Nudges U.S. and Philippines

Mother Nature may soon force some hard decisions on American and Philippine officials. The recent volcanic eruptions at Mt. Pinatubo should prompt Washington to reassess its Asia-Pacific security needs while Manila rethinks its hard line on the two U.S. military bases now virtually shut down because of the volcano.

The eruptions have cloaked Clark Air Force Base and Subic Bay Naval Base in layers of fine ash that, mixed with tropical rains, have turned into a sticky goo. The volcano’s destruction forced massive evacuations of the bases and surrounding communities, claimed more than 300 lives and destroyed homes and crops.

Mt. Pinatubo blew its top just three months before U.S. leases are scheduled to expire this September. Washington and Manila have been negotiating for a year to renew the leases. As recently as May, Manila was seeking $825 million in lease payments, while Washington offered $360 million. Talks are scheduled to resume next month in Manila.

What is unequivocally clear is that the bases, buried in ash, are now of vastly different value--both economically and strategically. A big question now is whether Clark, only eight miles from Mt. Pinatubo, should be permanently closed. The volcano is expected to remain active for three years. The Air Force cannot fly there now because of the engine-clogging ash in the air, and it is unclear whether it will be able to ever resume permanent operations, given Mt. Pinatubo’s unpredictability. Clark, built in 1901 as America’s first overseas base, originally covered 150,000 acres but was downsized to 9,200 acres after a 1979 agreement called for the return of most of the facility to the Philippines.

Subic is less likely to face permanent closure because its ship repair and resupply facilities are easier to restore. Clark and Subic have been a key part of the U.S. Pacific strategy since World War II. But the shrinking threat of Soviet military power in the area reduces the need for such costly facilities. The U.S. military is unlikely to scale back to just Guam and Pearl Harbor, but berthing and repair facilities at Singapore, for example, might provide an alternative to those in the Philippines.

President Corazon Aquino, spurred by rising Philippine nationalism, last year called for the withdrawal of U.S. forces while at the same time demanding astronomical prices for the bases. The suspicion at the time was that she was angling for a better deal. But now Mt. Pinatubo has changed everything. For now the foremost consideration in the United States should be to provide whatever aid possible to the volcano’s victims. But once the immediate effects of the disaster are past, both nations may look back on Mt. Pinatubo’s eruption as a turning point in the historic U.S.-Filipino relationship that may never be quite the same again.