Income and Spending Rise 0.5% in June : Economy: Analysts say the figures indicate further growth during the third quarter, but they expect a weaker rebound than in previous recoveries.
Personal income and consumer spending both rose 0.5% in June, the government said Monday in a report that analysts saw as a sign that the economy will continue to grow during the third quarter.
The Commerce Department report said personal income in June totaled $4.80 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up from $4.78 trillion a month earlier. It was the fifth straight monthly gain.
It also said consumer spending totaled $3.83 trillion at an annual rate, up from $3.81 trillion in May. It was the second consecutive gain. May’s revised 1.2% increase also was slightly larger than the 1.1% in the first estimate.
The latest results give consumer spending “quite a bit of momentum going into the third quarter,” said Laurence H. Meyer, head of a St. Louis economic forecasting firm. “It’s another piece of data that the third quarter is locked in as fairly solid,” although he added that the recovery will be weaker than normal.
Most analysts are projecting a weaker economic rebound this time than the average turnaround from the eight previous recessions since World War II.
And Meyer said there is “a significant risk” the economy will slow even more in the fourth quarter.
He said a double-dip recession is possible, although a subdued recovery is more likely.
The Commerce Department reported last week that consumer spending from April through June rose at a 3.6% annual rate, the first quarterly increase since the July-September period of 1990.
That helped boost the gross national product at a 0.4% annual rate, the first advance after two quarters of decline--the classic definition of a recession.
Disposable income--income after taxes--rose 0.5% in June, slightly less than the 0.6% increase a month earlier.
Income growth is needed to continue the economic recovery by providing the resources for consumer spending. Personal consumption represents about two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity.
The difference between income and spending meant Americans’ savings rate remained at 3.5%, the same as in May but down from the 4.1% rate in April.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan has expressed concern at the low rate of savings, which form the pool of capital from which lending institutions make loans to companies that want to expand their operations.
Americans save less of their income than consumers in any other major industrial nation, forcing more foreign borrowing to meet the country’s financing needs.
A key component of the income category--wages and salaries--jumped $26.6 billion after a $17.2 billion gain the previous month.
The spending and income figures were not adjusted for inflation. When adjusted, spending rose 0.4%, half of May’s 0.8% gain.
Disposable income, when adjusted for inflation, rose 0.4%, doubling the 0.2% advance in May.
Spending on durable goods--items ranging for automobiles to appliances expected to last at least three years--rose $8.6 billion after a $13.9-billion gain a month earlier. It was the second straight increase.
Spending on non-durable goods such as food and fuel, however, fell $3.4 billion after advancing $10.2 billion in May. Spending on services rose $13.2 billion on top of a $20.4-billion gain the previous month.
Personal Income Rises. . . Trillions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate June, ‘91: 4.80 May, ‘91: 4.78 June, ‘90: 4.64 As does Personal Spending Trillions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate June, ‘91: 3.83 May, ‘91: 3.81 June, ‘90: 3.65 Source: Commerce Department
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