Retailers Wax Optimistic Over Fall

These days video retailers are grumbling about business sagging in the first half of the year. For most the best hope for a profitable ’91 hinges on a bang-up fall quarter.

That means the release--from late August on--of the kind of movies that will lure legions of customers. “Ghost” was the only big draw in the first half of the year. Without it, business for most retailers would have been woeful.

The retailers are in luck. The fall lineup looks strong now and may get stronger.

The titles include “Home Alone,” “Terminator 2,” “The Godfather Part III,” “Fantasia,” “The Silence of the Lambs” and “Dances With Wolves.” Heading the list of possibles: “Robin Hood,” “City Slickers” and “What About Bob?”

Kicking off the fall season will be “Home Alone,” the sleeper that turned into one of the all-time box-office hits, grossing more than $280 million. Priced at $24.98, it’s due out Aug. 22. Though it will be a popular rental, most of its business won’t be done in video stores. Discount stores, which will probably slash the price to $15-$16, will be “Home Alone” headquarters.

The dominant early-fall rental is likely to be Orion’s “Dances With Wolves,” an Aug. 28 release, just in time for Labor Day weekend, one of the year’s most lucrative rental periods. This Oscar-winning movie, which has grossed more than $179 million, could rule the rental charts through early fall.

Paul Wagner, Orion’s vice president of public affairs, predicted that the company would ship more than 600,000 rental units of “Wolves” and that it might ultimately top “Ghost’s” record of 648,000. He added there’s no word yet on the release date of the collector’s edition, which will include extra footage. But, most likely, it would be marketed during the Christmas shopping season.

On Oct. 10 Paramount will release “Godfather III,” which could be the No. 1 rental through October. Though it grossed a respectable $65 million, it didn’t live up to expectations, largely due to poor reviews and bad word-of-mouth. But it was so heavily hyped that many fans who didn’t bother to see it will be curious enough to rent it.

There’s an extra attraction. Hollace Brown, Paramount Home Video’s senior vice president of advertising and promotion, reports that “Godfather III” contains nine extra minutes, including seven new scenes. For “Godfather” groupies, there’s a $175 boxed set, including all three chapters plus a 73-minute, behind-the-scenes documentary, “The Godfather Families: a Look Inside.”

On Oct. 24, just in time for Halloween, comes Orion’s grisly “The Silence of the Lambs,” which earned nearly $127 million in theaters. “Lambs” and “Godfather III” will probably top the rental market through November.

“Terminator 2” will be out in the fall too--geared to the rental market--according to a source at LIVE, but no date has been set. Most likely it will be released either in late November before Thanksgiving or in mid-December to take advantage of those peak holiday rental periods.

No decision has been made yet on “Robin Hood,” but it’s also a candidate for fall release--possibly in the $20-$25 range for the sales market. Two other hits, “City Slickers” and “What About Bob?,” could also make the fall release schedule, with “Slickers” likely for December. But if the market looks too crowded, those may be held until winter.

Aside from “Home Alone,” the only other big title in the sales market this fall--unless “Robin Hood” comes out at a low price--will be Disney’s animated classic “Fantasia,” which is due out Nov. 1 at $24.99. For $99, you can get the deluxe edition, featuring “The Making of the Masterpiece” and a two-CD soundtrack. The 1940 movie has been improved by high-tech restoration. To urge retailers to stock up on “Fantasia,” Disney has announced that, after 50 days on the market, no new orders will be accepted and the title will be put on moratorium.

Some skeptics are saying that “Fantasia” may not do as well as expected because, unlike all the other Disney feature-length cartoons, it’s not an exceptional kidvid title. The reasoning is that since it’s without dialogue and features a classical-music soundtrack, its appeal is more for adults than children.

But the laser-disc editions, released through Image Entertainment, should be very popular. Image’s David Del Grosso predicted that the company would ship over 100,000 copies on Nov. 1, topping “Ghost” as laser’s best-selling title. The basic two-disc set will sell for $39.99 while the three-disc set costs $99.99.

In addition to a making-of documentary, the expensive edition, which has stop-action capability, will include the 1940 theatrical trailer--which won’t be on the $100 home-video version.