TIMES POLL : Nearly 90% in Southland Say Slump Still Here : Economy: Residents are skeptical of official pronouncements about recovery amid reports of layoffs and plant closings.

Despite the pronouncements of recovery by most economists and the Bush Administration, nearly 90% of Southern Californians say the nation’s economy is still in recession and seven in 10 describe the Southland’s economy as shaky, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll.

This gloomy view reflects widespread skepticism and confusion among Southern Californians who are looking for concrete signs of an economic recovery amid almost constant reports of layoffs and plant closings, say economists.

“Under a very official definition, we might be in a recovery,” said Sandra Shaber, a consumer economist at Futures Group, a Washington-based economic consulting firm. “(But) it’s so frustrating to people when they still see others lose their jobs. It’s hard to feel real optimistic.”

Most economists and top government officials have been heralding the end of the recession for at least two months. A survey of the nation’s top economic forecasters, released by the Blue Chip Economic Consensus newsletter last month, showed that most economists believed that the recession was either over or would be by month’s end.

But consumers, for the most part, have not changed their minds. Although numerous polls and surveys have found that consumer confidence has risen since the beginning of year, it remains sluggish and way below last year’s levels.

“Until we see substantially more signs of improvement than we have had, most consumers will say that we are still in a recession,” said Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Economists say optimism and confidence among consumers will play a major role in determining how far and fast the economy will recover. Personal spending accounts for two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity.

The Times Poll, which interviewed 1,586 adults in Southern California Aug. 10-13, found that 87% of Southern Californian’s think that the nation’s economy is in recession. That is nearly consistent with a nationwide Times Poll two months earlier that found 83% of those questioned believed the economy was in recession.

“We don’t see any major difference in the attitude of Southern Californians from what we have been seeing across California and nationwide,” said John Brennan, director of the Times Poll.

The survey, which has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points, was taken a week before the failed Soviet coup attempt. The quick end of the coup probably served to mitigate any long-term impact on consumer confidence, said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles County.

Residents also were gloomy about the current state of the Southern California economy. And there appeared to be a slight increase in pessimism about the near term.

Nearly five in 10 Southern Californians questioned described the region’s economy as “fairly shaky”; 25% characterized it as “very shaky.” Only 21% of those questioned said the Southland’s economy was “fairly robust” and 2% “very robust.”

Respondents to the nationwide Times Poll in June were slightly more pessimistic about the nation’s economy. That poll found that 55% of those surveyed felt the nation’s economy was “fairly shaky” and 27% “very shaky.” Only 16% said the economy was “fairly robust.”

In examining the outlook for the next three months, there was an apparent drop in the number of Southlanders predicting that the economy would soon improve. Only 21% said the region’s economy would probably get better.

A similar poll in May found that 32% of those questioned were as optimistic about California’s economy overall.

At the same time, 23% of those questioned in August said the region’s economy would worsen in the next three months and 53% said it would stay the same. The May poll found that 21% said the state’s economy would get worse and 44% said it would stay the same.

“It looks as though things are not getting better,” said Helen Wright, a Long Beach resident who works as a middle school assistant principal. “I see all kinds of houses for sale around me. I see people at the church I go to who’ve lost their jobs.”

However, when it came to their personal financial picture, most residents were more optimistic than about the economy.

Nearly seven in 10 described their personal finances as “secure,” and 33% expected their financial condition to be better within three months.

In addition, three in 10 expected to be spending more money three months from now. In contrast, only 18% expected to be spending less money in three months and only 9% anticipated their finances to worsen.

Valerie Washington, a 27-year-old vocalist from Pasadena, expects her income to remain steady in the near term. But what she sees and hears around town bothers her.

“I see more people on the street. I hear people who are talking about ‘I just lost my job. They gave me two days notice,’ ” said Washington. “I don’t see a big change coming or going.”

The Times Poll also found that Southern Californians’ view of their personal financial condition and the health of the economy ranged noticeably among ethnic and racial groups, which is a pattern typically seen in national surveys.

While 85% of Asians and 71% of whites polled said their finances were secure, only 58% of Latinos and 56% of blacks reacted in the same fashion.

Differences in income levels, ethnicity and other demographic factors may explain the divergent points of view between people in the city of Los Angeles and those in Orange County.

For example, 75% of Orange County residents described their personal finances as secure compared to 58% in the City of Los Angeles. Nearly half of the Los Angeles residents said the nation was in a serious recession, compared to less than 20% in Orange County.

The recession has also hit Los Angeles harder than any other region in Southern California, said Kyser.

Although he predicts that California as a whole will emerge from the recession in early 1992, “we don’t look for much of a rebound until 1993 in Los Angeles County.

“It’s going to be a longer period of discomfort for Los Angeles County,” said Kyser. “People have been thoroughly rattled by what has gone on.”

A Shaky Southland

A Times Poll of 1,568 Southern Californians taken August 10-13 found that the majority felt that the local economy is feeling the effects of recession. Would you describe the state of Southern California’s economy these days as very robust, fairly robust, fairly shaky or very shaky ? VERY ROBUST: 2% FAIRLY ROBUST: 21% FAIRLY SHAKY: 48% VERY SHAKY: 25% DON’T KNOW: 4% Source: Los Angeles Times

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 1,586 adult Southern Californians by telephone Aug. 10-13. The sample was generated from a list of all telephone exchanges in Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties. Random-digit dialing was used to contact respondents, who were interviewed in English or Spanish. Over-sampling techniques were used to produce larger-sized subsamples of blacks and Asians for analysis, which were weighted to their proper proportions in the regional sample. Results were adjusted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, national origin, age, household size and county size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher.