Players Await the Shuffling--and the Deal : Reapportionment: State and local politicians may see a first draft of district boundary changes as early as this week.

If there was a job board listing Orange County’s elected offices, it would probably be surrounded these days by political climbers anxiously awaiting news of reapportionment.

The first drafts of new California political boundaries--which might be presented as early as this week--could signal the end of a career for some lawmakers and a bright opportunity for others.

As a result, the halls of government are buzzing with speculative talk and posturing by City Council members, county supervisors, state lawmakers and members of Congress trying to predict the effects of the most substantial political turnover in a decade.

“I would say right now we are experiencing the lull before the storm,” said Greg Haskins, executive director of the county Republican Party. “Within 24 hours of the official plan being released, we can expect a barrage of press conferences from people wanting to run for higher office.”

David Ellis, a Costa Mesa political consultant, added: “I think there’s a tremendous amount of chest-thumping and posturing going on quietly now to the financial community. You see a lot of councilmen striving for more media coverage and for a higher posture because they’ve got to get some visibility.”

There are several groups and factions in Sacramento helping to draw a Republican and Democratic version of the state’s political landscape that will be debated in public.

Once the maps are unveiled, however, the debate will be quick and intense, as there is less than three weeks’ time remaining before the legislative session ends and the state is scheduled to adopt a final plan for redistricting at the state and federal levels.

Most of the closed-door bargaining to prepare the maps has been kept very quiet, so few lawmakers have any idea of the ways their own districts may be changed.

U.S. Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) is one of eight Republican House members assigned to a committee drafting new congressional boundaries, but he said even he has little idea what might happen in Orange County.

The changes are certain to create new opportunities for a host of aspiring officeholders. Among the possibilities:

* There might be a new congressional district added to the five now in Orange County. That would be the most significant change in the Orange County political landscape because a new House seat could create openings when state, county and city officeholders abandon their jobs to seek positions in Washington.

Many insiders have speculated that should another congressional seat be created in Orange County, the district for it might be drawn with a majority of Latino residents to satisfy the new requirements of the National Voting Rights Act. If so, the district would probably encompass Santa Ana, which is 65% Latino.

Such a district could represent an opportunity for Supervisor Gaddi H. Vasquez, a Republican, as many have speculated. But Vasquez said this week that he intends to seek reelection to the Board of Supervisors next year.

“I don’t contemplate any changes for me at this point,” he said. “I don’t preclude the option in the future, but I’m not anxious to pursue something now.”

Supervisor Roger R. Stanton, who represents Santa Ana, has also expressed an interest in running for Congress. He did not respond to telephone calls seeking comment on the issue.

* Rather than there being a new congressional district, it is possible that two existing House districts that now cross county lines could change so as to take in more Orange County territory. Currently, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Long Beach) represents northwestern Orange County, but most of his district is in Los Angeles County. And Rep. Ron Packard (R-Carlsbad) represents San Clemente, but most of his district is in San Diego County.

* A similar scenario could occur as the county’s state Senate districts are redrawn. The district of state Sen. Frank Hill (R-Whittier)--now mostly in Los Angeles County--could be moved farther into Orange County. In addition, the district of state Sen. Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach), which now stretches all the way to the Mexican border, could be compacted into coastal and southern Orange County.

The 1990 Census, which is the impetus for new political maps, shows that the rate of Orange County’s population growth over the last 10 years was almost equal to that of the state as a whole. As a result, the county’s representation in Sacramento would be expected to remain largely constant.

But the sculpting of Orange County still depends, to a great extent, on what happens to districts in surrounding counties. Because there was substantial growth in San Diego and Riverside counties during the last 10 years, many people expect the legislative maps to reflect that.

“As a general rule, everything is moving away from Los Angeles,” Hill said.

Bergeson could, then, be forced to fight for her claim to Orange County, but she said recently that she expects to retain her hold on Newport Beach.

“There is a very good chance,” she said. “My hope is that the 37th District will be compact . . . and maintain (Orange County’s) coastal area in one district.”

* Orange County’s state Assembly districts might also be expected to move slightly south. But several other factors could affect that change also--including some old-fashioned politics.

Some insiders wonder whether Gov. Pete Wilson would try to jeopardize the tenure of the conservative Orange County Republicans who fought him during the recent state budget negotiations.

If that is the case, the maps could be drawn so that two or more Orange County lawmakers end up running against one another in the same district. The risk for the governor, however, would be that state Democrats could promise safe seats to those Republican conservatives in return for their votes on the Democratic redistricting plan.

“There’s been talk about putting two or three of us in the same district,” said conservative Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach). “Right now, we don’t see that . . . but (Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco)) will try to convince Republican conservatives that the governor doesn’t care about them.”

Democrats in Republican-rich Orange County are also watching reapportionment for new opportunities.

“It can’t get worse,” said George Urch, chief of staff for Orange County’s only Assembly Democrat, Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove). “If you look at the changing demographics, there’s a growth among minorities, and I think that will hopefully benefit the Democrats.”