County Likely to Gain House Seat, Brown Says : Politics: Assembly Speaker is contradicted by another top Democrat, who says seat would probably go to faster-growing San Diego and Imperial counties.

SACRAMENTO —  Assembly Speaker Willie Brown said Tuesday that Orange County is likely to gain one of California’s seven new congressional seats in the reapportionment plan to be decided by the Legislature next month.

Speaking to reporters at a wide-ranging press conference, Brown (D-San Francisco) said the seven new seats required by the 1990 Census would be distributed throughout California with three going to the north and four added in the south. He also said five of the seven new districts might be expected to vote Republican.

“I would guess you are talking about the Inland Empire, that area, and I would also guess that you’re talking about San Diego County and Orange County,” Brown said. “When you start reconfiguring the seats, I think you will see that one of the seats will probably have to be anchored in Orange County.”

Brown added that the new congressional district would not necessarily contain a majority of Latino voters to satisfy the new requirements of the National Voting Rights Act, which is intended to facilitate the election of minority candidates. He also indicated that it might be a Republican seat.

Brown’s comments added to an already anxious and confusing atmosphere surrounding the upcoming reapportionment, especially since another top Democratic official gave a conflicting description Tuesday of the party’s plans for Orange County’s congressional delegation.

The source in the Democratic congressional caucus said an additional House seat in Orange County was not likely because other parts of Southern California--particularly San Diego and Imperial counties--grew at a much faster rate.

Instead of a new, predominantly Latino district, the source said a more likely scenario would be for the Legislature to load Latino and Asian neighborhoods into Rep. Robert K. Dornan’s (R-Garden Grove) district, which now includes Santa Ana and is slightly more than 43% Latino.

The source, who asked not to be identified, said the scenario would actually shrink Dornan’s district in geographic size by getting rid of Republican areas and drawing in Latino portions of Los Angeles County. While the size would decrease, the minority percentage would go up to about 50%--enough to presage a minority officeholder in the future.

“Anaheim and Santa Ana are more logically a Hispanic influence district and it, perhaps, will elect a Hispanic,” said the source.

But Dornan said Tuesday that because of the Republican strength in Orange County, he does not believe that it is possible to reconfigure his district in a way that would jeopardize his tenure.

“When they’re all through, my district will still basically be described as central, north Orange County,” said Dornan, whose district is already predominantly Democratic. He added that Democratic hopes of winning a seat in Orange County is like “whistling in the graveyard of liberal dreams.”

Anticipation about the new political maps has been growing since both Democrat and Republican proposals are expected to be released in the next few days, with a final version scheduled for adoption when the Legislature adjourns in less than three weeks.

The Legislature is responsible for drawing the new lines for Congress, the Assembly, the state Senate and the State Board of Equalization every 10 years.

Many observers have speculated that most of the new congressional seats would likely be Republican since Democratic voter registration has slipped since the last reapportionment.

Brown said Tuesday: “It wouldn’t surprise me that five of the seven new seats would turn out to be seats that are skewed towards what you would call traditional Republican seats.”

Officials in Orange County said Tuesday that Brown’s comments were interesting, but it was too early in the process to count on their accuracy.

County Democratic Party Chairman Howard Adler said: “It sounds like a good idea.” But “I’ve heard three or four or five different versions of what’s going to happen.”

Local political observers had speculated that a new congressional seat in Orange County might force Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s (R-Long Beach) district to move north into Los Angeles County.

But Rohrabacher said Tuesday that he had no preference about whether his district moved north or south since there are strong pockets of Republican voters in both ends of his territory.

Times staff writer Dan Weintraub contributed to this story.