A Portent of Future Crises? : Russia and Ukraine haggle over Black Sea fleet

The clash between Russia and Ukraine--over who controls the warships of the Black Sea fleet now that the Soviet Union has buckled--turns back the clock for both of them.

Perhaps there’s some hope in the action of Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers, who Friday called for negotiations between the two rivals.

Ukraine, which contends it is in charge of the fleet because it is paying fleet bills, for centuries has been breaking free of Russian domination and then being drawn back.

Not only does he claim the fleet, Ukraine President Leonid M. Kravchuk wants the crews of 350 ships, along with about 1.3 million former Soviet troops stationed in Ukraine, to swear allegiance to Ukraine.

President Boris N. Yeltsin insists that the fleet “was, is, and will remain Russia’s.” The commander of what is left of the Soviet military, Air Marshal Yevgeny I. Shaposhnikov, tells his officers by telegram that their troops should swear allegiance to Russia.

With the old empire in tatters, food in short supply and tempers flaring as winter bears down, Ukraine and Russia must avoid an explosive situation. Volatility is heightened by the fact that each of the principals is playing to an audience he dare not lose.

As Moscow television commented Thursday, holding onto former Soviet forces based in Ukraine is crucial to Yeltsin’s authority. Ukraine is free of formal domination by Moscow for the first time since World War I. Shaposhnikov is trying to hold his forces together long enough for an orderly transfer of command to members of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

As the standoff wears on, nationalism among Russians and Ukrainians surges. Words of compromise have too often fallen on deaf ears. Russia has offered to turn over five naval bases on the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine and been turned down. A proposal to divvy up the fleet was rejected by its commander. The West, meanwhile, must hug the sidelines, able to do nothing much beyond urge self-discipline. It might as well get accustomed to that role.

This can hardly be the last buildup toward crisis for any of the nations of the commonwealth.