COMMENTARY : Let Real Games Begin: It’s Watch Jordan Time

Now that we’re finally rid of college cheerleaders, college bands, Billy Packer and college basketball itself, now that the preliminaries have ended, the main event is under way. The NBA Playoffs. Basketball unpolluted, a game where you won’t hear the words matchup zone, coaching genius, general studies major or traveling.

The primary question we all want answered is, can anybody beat the Bulls? Portland could, possibly. Cleveland could, possibly. But we don’t want to jump too far ahead, lest we miss the best first-round playoff matchups in the last 10 years.

In the West, six of the eight teams are perfectly capable of winning the conference championship. The Lakers and San Antonio aren’t, but the Lakers may make Portland’s life absolutely miserable before that first-round series is over. None of the Lakers, nor their coach, Mike Dunleavy, will win any individual postseason awards. But if the league gave one for Most Improbable Season it would surely go to the Lakers. No Magic for the whole season, no Worthy, no Perkins, no Vlade for much of it. What they have in abundance is guts, and this is why the Trail Blazers would have just as soon faced sorry, no-account Houston in the first round.

Once unthinkable, the Clippers will probably last longer than the Lakers. I like the Clips against No. 2 seed Utah. And no, it wouldn’t be particularly shocking. In fact, it would be true to form since Karl Malone has never made it past the second round in his six previous playoff seasons and only twice has he gotten that far. The Jazz still has only three players-Malone, Malone and Stockton-and a sometimes crude offense. The fact that Jeff Malone is now the backup point guard underscores Utah’s lack of depth. The Clippers, on the other hand, come off the bench with James Edwards, a proven low-post factor, Olden Polynice, a banger well-suited for the half-court style of the playoffs, and Doc Rivers, one of the smartest guards in the league. And if that isn’t enough, they’ve also got Danny Manning, who under Larry Brown appears ready to carry the Clippers as he carried the Kansas Jayhawks to a national title in 1988.

As hard as I root for Golden State--the most exciting team in the league to watch, by far--Seattle under George Karl has begun to play closer to its considerable potential. The SuperSonics have as much talent as anybody in the league, including the Bulls and Blazers. That’s why this could be the best first-round series of all, with the Warriors needing home-court advantage to win in five. Golden State-Chicago would take open-court basketball to a new level, but the Warriors (or Seattle) will have a hard time beating the Clips in the second round.

Any conversation about the Eastern Conference has to start with the most bizarre story in the league: the Nets. Just when you get ready to single out Derrick Coleman and Chris Morris for sabotaging the team by refusing to go into the lineup during the playoff run, embattled Bill Fitch made the startling confession that “every player on the team” had similarly displeased him at some point this season.

There’s so much blame to spread around, it’s hard to know where to start. You wonder whether the monstrously talented Coleman will turn into the kind of player who leads his team to greatness or remains the lack-of-heart, no-ring-wearing, no-free- throw-shooting disappointment he was at Syracuse. You wonder whether Willis Reed, the team’s GM, would have allowed such insurrection when he was captain of the NBA champion Knicks. And you wonder whether any coach in league history is more disliked than Bill Fitch who was despised by the Celtics (Kevin McHale and Robert Parish in particular) and the Rockets before alienating everybody in the Meadowlands, including his ownership group, who fume while Kenny Anderson makes a jillion dollars for sitting on the bench because Fitch doesn’t want to play him.

Having said all that, New Jersey could beat Cleveland. It’s matchups. One of Cleveland’s great strengths is in its versatile front court (Daugherty, Nance, Hot Rod Williams). Ditto New Jersey (Coleman, Morris, Bowie, Chris Dudley, Terry Mills). And how many teams have a shooter who can match Mark Price shot for shot, even three-pointers? The Nets do, in Drazen Petrovic. Cleveland’s playoff history and a sense or urgency to get to the finals now will enable the Cavs to win, but it won’t be a walk.

Same goes for the Boston. Finally, at least, the Celtics have learned they can play without Larry Bird. Now that it’s Reggie Lewis’s team and any contribution from Bird is just a bonus, Indiana will find out just how good the Celtics are.

What we’re looking at here is Boston losing to Cleveland in the second round, and the Bulls walking over the Knicks. That’s right, the Knicks. The Pistons, bless their thuggish hearts, are done. For good. Too much turmoil, too little scoring.

After a minicamp of sorts in South Carolina, Pat Riley will have the Knicks ready for at least one series. That leaves Cleveland to play the Bulls in a series that won’t be nearly as close as the buildup will suggest. For whatever reason, Jordan doesn’t like the Cavs. His career high-69 points-came at Cleveland. When he hit that buzzer-beater over Craig Ehlo in the decisive fifth game of the 1989 opening round, he sent the franchise into a downward spiral that only recently stopped. To be Michael Jordan’s personal pigeon is not a good thing.

Meanwhile, Portland can beat Phoenix in the second round, Portland can beat Golden State or the Clips in the conference final. Portland cannot beat the Bulls. All year long, the Trail Blazers have labored under this cloud of being a stupid team. Individually, Portland has smart players, very smart. Buck Williams, Danny Ainge, Terry Porter, Alaa Abdelnaby, very smart. But collectively, the Blazers are, uh, obtuse. They don’t pass well, they don’t cover for each other defensively, and they don’t hold up well when good teams apply pressure. Maybe it’s coaching. Whatever, Portland is an AFC team. The Trail Blazers may be smart but they don’t play smart. It’s a team worthy of a championship but they have to prove us wrong.

If the Blazers somehow lose before the finals, the Bulls could do something no team has ever done: sweep the playoffs. They were 15-2 last year, the two losses coming (to the 76ers and Lakers) on three-pointers in the final seconds. Chicago is better this year, and the competition isn’t.

Even though the air is warm and the birds are singing, watch Jordan whenever you can. On TNT, on NBC, tape the games and put them away in a box. With Magic out and Bird going, it takes a special man to carry an entire postseason on his back.