Big Win for Bush in County Goes Against Reason

Hugh Hewitt, yuppie pundit, has announced why George Bush will carry Orange County by the traditional 200,000 votes (Commentary, “The Seven Reasons Bush Will Win Big in Orange County,” Aug. 30).

He is right about one thing: Bush needs that edge to carry California. His “seven obvious reasons” are more wishes than reality.

1. THE STATURE GAP: To suggest that Bill Clinton cannot play on a world stage because he is from Arkansas is like saying Boris Yeltsin suffers internationally because of his peasant roots. And, yes, Clinton can talk to John Major. Perhaps about Oxford?

2. AN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY: Clinton has criticized aspects of the North American Free Trade Agreement because, if elected, he will face the immediate problems, which most believe will be far offset by long-term benefits. But try telling that to an unemployed auto worker.

3. THE NEWEST CITIZENS: Hewitt contends Clinton lacks experience with ethnic groups. If true, so what? There are few private agendas. Most will vote their pocketbooks. The only color that counts is green.

4. TAXES: Funny, Hewitt mentions the economy only here. Clinton will raise them; Bush says he will not. This is the essence of the whole campaign. Republicans want to continue to trickle down; Democrats want to tax and spend. Our choice is status quo or to try to prime the pump. Today, many might choose the latter.

5. AL GORE’S AMERICA: True, the environmental bureaucracy is awful, and Al Gore is an environmentalist. But the residents of Orange County do like to breathe and being conservative can also mean conserving our resources.

6. THE UNDERCARD: Hewitt says that a strong turnout for Bruce Herschensohn will help Bush and compares him to Ronald Reagan. However, the same guy who voted for Reagan for President and a Democrat for Congress might this time do the opposite. Besides, Bruce Herschensohn is no Ronald Reagan. The real issue here is Dan Quayle. The idea of Quayle in the Oval Office, by unfortunate chance, sends chills through even some of the most conservative voters.

7. LOCAL PARTIES: The local Democrats are ineffective. The Republicans are well-organized and well-financed. But political machines ride the tide of public opinion. Tammany Hall did not survive a new era. And the local GOP is less an agent of change than George Bush himself. Several local Republicans have defected publicly, and other lesser-known voters may feel the same way. We will know in November. Bush may carry Orange County for the sake of old times but not by the margin Mr. Hewitt wants.

MICHAEL McFADDEN, Balboa Island