China Accord May Do Little in Short Term : Trade: The agreement opens much of the huge market, but most Chinese lack the money to buy U.S. goods.

The trade agreement reached over the weekend between China and the United States won’t have an immediate impact on the flow of trade between the countries, experts said Sunday.

China’s exports to the United States will be unaffected by the pact, and U.S. companies aren’t likely to step up their exports to China despite the removal of trade barriers.

Exports to China will continue to be hampered by economic conditions in the United States and China, experts said. Few Chinese have the money to spend on the computers, autos and other goods American companies would like to sell them.

At the same time, some trade experts also questioned whether U.S. companies, hampered by a recession at home, could effectively compete against foreign firms for Chinese consumer dollars.

“All a government can do is create opportunities,” said Eldon Griffiths, director of the Center for International Business at Chapman University in Orange. “How well or how badly the U.S. now does is not a function of government.”

The pact calls for China to phase out most of its import licenses, quotas and other controls that kept out American-made goods. China agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on a wide variety of imported goods, including chemicals, machinery, electrical parts and film products.

The agreement averted a multibillion-dollar trade war between the United States and China. The Bush Administration had threatened to slap tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods if Beijing had not signed.

Without the agreement, China stood to lose its most-favored-nation trading status with the United States. This is the low-tariff status the United States grants most trading partners.

Gaining access to much of the Chinese market was the first step toward correcting a bilateral U.S. trade deficit that is expected to reach $20 billion this year. It also fit the Bush Administration strategy of creating jobs at home by increasing exports.

Lowell Dittmer, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, said the pact appeared to provide an opportunity for U.S. car makers that have been stymied in their efforts to penetrate China. “This should be good news for Detroit,” he said.

Dittmer said China would benefit most, at least initially, because the U.S. market is so important to China. The United States buys one-quarter of China’s exports. China, on the other hand, buys just 3% of American-made exports.

Chalmers Johnson, a China expert at UC San Diego, was skeptical that the pact would benefit the U.S. economy. Unless the terms are closely monitored, he said, trade restrictions could reappear, blunting this nation’s ability to sell products in China and create new jobs at home.

“This is a victory for China and people whose businesses depend on China imports,” Johnson said.

The National Retail Federation, a U.S. trade group, had lobbied against a tariff on Chinese goods, which would have raised the price of imported shoes, silk, luggage, electronics and leather. The group had maintained that thousands of retail and importing jobs would have been lost.