UC IRVINE NOTEBOOK / ROBYN NORWOOD : Newland’s Theories Hold Water

Twenty-seven seasons as coach of UC Irvine’s water polo team have made Ted Newland a sage prognosticator. His pick for the NCAA championships this weekend at Belmont Plaza in Long Beach?

“It’s going to be who’s lucky at the right time,” he said.

The longer he coaches, the simpler it gets.

Today, Newland takes Irvine into the NCAA water polo championships for the 20th time in the 24 years the competition has been held.

And if your chances are going to come down to luck--which Newland says “evens out over the season”--you’re best off focusing on defense, he says.

“The difference between scoring and not scoring is about a quarter of an inch when the ball leaves your hand,” he said. “By the time it reaches the cage, it’s a foot off. Whenever you’re dealing with a ball, there’s lots of luck involved. That’s why defense is so important. You’re not dealing with balls, so you have a better chance to play consistently defensively than offensively.”

Improved defense is one reason fourth-seeded Irvine is 19-8 and has won 16 of its last 18 matches.

“I just think as a team we’re more mobile and playing better defense,” Newland said. “Offense is an individual effort, you don’t have to play as a team. Defense is much more of a team effort.”

Irvine, seeded fourth, will play fifth-seeded Pepperdine in a first-round match at 5 p.m. today at Belmont Plaza. The teams have met three times this season, with Irvine winning each time. That doesn’t give Newland any extra measure of confidence.

“We’re pretty even, very even,” he said. “I think Pepperdine will be a very hard game. We have not had easy games against them. We’ve played very hard to win.”

If Irvine wins, it could face undefeated California in the semifinals at 8 p.m. Saturday. Cal is the two-time defending national champion and has won four of the last five titles. And yet Newland doesn’t curse the draw.

In four games against Cal, Irvine has been beaten by one goal three times, and by two goals once.

“It’s going to be who’s lucky at the right time,” Newland repeated.

The NCAA tournament will mark the end of the college careers of Irvine players Steve Gill, a first-team All-American last season, and Pablo Yrizar, a second-team All-American last year who is Irvine’s leading scorer.

But a good performance at Belmont Plaza could be important for Gill’s future. In the stands will be Rich Corso, who has been named the U.S. Olympic coach for the 1996 Games in Atlanta.

Why not Yrizar? He plays for Mexico’s national team.

G’Days and bad days: Irvine men’s basketball Coach Rod Baker is an old acquaintance of Andrew Gaze, an Australian who plays professionally for the Melbourne Tigers, the Anteaters’ opponent in their final exhibition game tonight.

Gaze was Seton Hall’s star scorer and Baker was an assistant coach on the Pirate team that lost to Michigan by one point in the 1989 NCAA championship game.

But Gaze had a dismal final game for the Pirates, scoring only five points in Michigan’s 80-79 overtime victory.

During Melbourne’s six U.S. exhibition games, Gaze has averaged 34.8 points. But he berated himself after making only nine of 23 shots in a 12-point loss to UCLA this month, telling Baker that Melbourne might have won if he had made a couple more shots.

“If you’d made a couple of shots a few Aprils ago,” Baker teased him, “I’d have a championship ring instead of a runner-up ring.”

New lightweight version: When Irvine’s new center, Dee Boyer, was at Saddleback College, his detractors saw a talented but overweight basketball player who could be a hothead on the court.

Baker and his staff saw a talented, overweight player who could be a hothead on the court and a young man with an exuberant personality off the court.

Early indications are that it was a good move to sign him. Boyer, a 6-foot-10 player who weighed 295 pounds when he arrived at Saddleback and 270 when he arrived at Irvine, now weighs about 255.

“I feel a lot better,” Boyer said. “I’m a lot quicker on my feet.”

In Irvine’s exhibition victory over the Lafayette (Ind.) Hustlers Monday, Boyer had nine points, nine rebounds and three blocked shots, including one that started a fast break.

Baker says he’ll take that every game. Boyer’s presence also should strengthen an interior defense that tended to break down last season.

Three players missed Monday’s exhibition. Freshman Shaun Battle has a pulled hamstring. Sophomore LaDay Smith, a transfer from Cal, will become eligible next month. Joe Hannon, a community college transfer, said paperwork has not been completed on his eligibility.

Tennis news: Steve Clark, coach of the men’s team, had hinted that he would sign a player capable of having an impact right away.

Last week, he landed Carlos Bustos, 21, who has played amateur tennis outside of school since playing one season for University High in 1987.

“I think he’ll be in the top four,” Clark said, perhaps being conservative.

Bustos, who was ranked No. 7 in the nation in boys’ 18s in 1989, will have three years of eligibility at Irvine. He won a national junior boys’ doubles title in 1988 and also reached a national singles final that year.

He has signed a letter of intent and will enroll for the winter quarter and be eligible for Irvine’s spring season.

“For him this is kind of a new beginning,” Clark said.

The women’s volleyball team hopes to get an invitation to the National Invitational Volleyball Tournament, the sport’s equivalent of basketball’s NIT.

Irvine finished with a 15-13 record, 7-11 in the Big West. The field for the NIVT will be announced this weekend.

Popi Edwards finished her freshman season by being honored as a player of the week in the Big West. She led the team in kills during the season with 360, the fifth-highest total in school history.

Senior Scotleen Risley set a school record for digs with 370 during the season, and senior Kris Puttler finished her career in the top 10 in six categories.