REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK : Power of PCs in 2003--According to Techies
For those in the computer industry, thinking a year ahead is difficult. Ten years ahead is unthinkable.
So it was like peering into a brave new world when I sat in on a rap session last week about what computing will be like in the year 2003.
About 30 hard-core techies (by day, they are consultants who play around with computers) speculated on the future at a dinner meeting of the Independent Computer Consultants Assn. at the Red Lion Inn in Costa Mesa.
Everyone wore business attire, so it wasn’t exactly a group of cyber-punk computer rats a la Wired magazine. But it was high band-width talk--computerese for intellectual debate.
As a journalist, I was the pseudo-techie there, my only purpose to record the predictions so that we could all laugh at them a decade from now.
“In 2003, the economy will be based on information, not oil and gold,” said Gary Copeland, president of Epicenter Research in Fountain Valley. “Consultants like us will make change happen. Companies run around like elephants, but we are like the ants and rats that make things happen.”
Copeland opened the discussion with a look at the personal computer in the past decade. He quoted magazines from Scientific American to PC Magazine; all fell well short of foreseeing the advances of technology.
In 1984, an IBM personal computer came with about 10 megabytes of hard-disk space--enough to store about 5,000 single-spaced typewritten pages--and an 8088 microprocessor, which could scan the Encyclopaedia Britannica in 400 seconds.
Today, for the same price--about $2,000--you can get a 33-megahertz Intel 486 microprocessor, which can scan the encyclopedia in four seconds, and 120 megabytes of storage capacity, enough to store 60,000 pages.
At my table, we discussed hardware. Here are some predictions we jotted down:
* Copiers, facsimile machines and laser printers will be consolidated into a single computer. Such a product is already in the works at the parent company of Canon Computer Inc. in Costa Mesa.
* Computers will process “words” in chunks as large as 64 or 256 bits, instead of the 32-bit words of today. Computers will also have multiprocessors, or more than a single central computing processor, to tackle complicated problems.
* Computers will have flat, wide panel displays that can hang on the wall. The photographic-quality color displays will be able to double as high-definition television screens that will broadcast as many as 500 channels.
“Computers and TVs will be the same thing,” said Jim Duwaldt, a research programmer at State of the Art Inc. in Irvine.
“Yeah, but what happens when the kids want to use the TV when you want to use the computer?” asked Len Olsen, who owns the consulting firm Digital Dene in Garden Grove.
* Instead of a mouse, a cursor on a screen will be controlled by the retina--that is, wherever the user directs his or her eye. A couple of people suggested that such a system would make blinking difficult. Others suggested voice control for computers, but what would you do when you get a sore throat?
Others said that reporters such as myself won’t need note pads anymore to take notes. I could use a pen-like device to record notes onto a computer screen (though in my case I would have to improve my penmanship first).
* Standard storage capacity on a computer will be about 16 gigabytes, or 8 million pages. The medium for storage could be either a magnetic hard disk or an optical disk based on laser technology similar to compact discs.
* Despite all the hype, fiber-optic cables will just be reaching homes, adding capacity so that TVs and PCs of the future can pipe a wide range of entertainment, such as a full video library, into our living rooms.
* Wireless technologies will intrude into our lives, from cellular phones to electronic fund-transfer machines, but they could run into roadblocks because of the limited availability of the airwaves, said Larry Shoemaker, an engineer at Advanced Engineering Concepts in Manhattan Beach.
* Virtual reality, or simulations that engulf the user in a three-dimensional, computer-generated world, will proliferate in the training and entertainment industries. “It’s a big fad,” Copeland said.
Another table came up with these predictions for software:
* Information appliances, from smart microwave ovens to smart vacuum cleaners, will contain a host of hidden software that makes them easier to use.
* John Sunderson, another consultant, said that signatures will be unnecessary, for all electronically generated documents will carry special codes to prevent unauthorized copying.
* Instead of arcane languages that mean nothing to lay people, computer applications will be written in languages that people can understand and customize for their own purposes.
* A single, standard operating system, mostly likely made by a corporate giant, will prevail across technological platforms. This prompted a chant in a mantra-like tone: “Mi-cro-soft, Mi-cro-soft.”
And what will all that technological change mean for our lives? Peter Maddox, a consultant with TaskMan Business Systems in Anaheim, summed it up: “Life will be like a video game; we won’t leave our homes and robots will take over our jobs.”
Keith Weber, owner of TaskMan Business Systems, complained that we spent too much time talking about what would still be around and not enough time focusing on what is new or what might be missing.
Maddox offered this: “There will be no libraries, no theaters, no museums, no magazines, no newspapers. . . .” No newspapers? This was the second time that it came up. “You’re going to be out of work,” Copeland said to me.
“Well, at least there will be electronic newspapers around,” Maddox said, offering a pat on the shoulder. “You’re a writer, and people will still need information. You’ll still have a job.”
Computing Into the Next Century
In the quickly evolving computer hardware industry, today’s common PC will appear meek in comparison to the standard equipment available in 2003. How PC hardware has evolved from 1983 to present and a look at what lies ahead:
KEY: Bit: basic unit of information used in computing process; byte: 8 bits; kilobyte: 1,024 bytes; megabyte: about 1 million bytes or 500 single-spaced typewritten pages; gigabyte: about 1 billion bytes. Microprocessor 1983: 8086, 2.77 megahertz 1993: 80486, 33 megahertz 2003: Multiple, about 2,178 megahertz
Speed to scan encyclopedia 1983: 400 seconds 1993: 4 seconds 2003: .00004 seconds
Data size 1983: Eight bits 1993: 16-32 bits 2003: 64-256 bits
Main memory 1983: 128 kilobytes 1993: Eight megabytes 2003: Two gigabytes
Hard-disk memory 1983: None 1993: 120 megabytes * 2003: 16 gigabytes **
Modem speed 1983: 300 baud per second 1993: 9,600 baud per second 2003: Dependent on fiber-optic digital highways
Operating system 1983: PC-DOS 1.0 1993: MS-DOS 5.0 2003: Unknown
Monitor 1983: Monochrome 1993: 256 colors, double TV resolution 2003: Large, flat panel, photographic-quality color display
Floppy disks 1983: 5.25 inches, 180 kilobytes 1993: 3.5 inches, 1.44 megabytes; 5.25 inches, 1.2 megabytes 2003: 600-megabyte read/write optical disks
* About 60,000 single-spaced typewritten pages.
** About 8 million single-spaced typewritten pages.
Source: Epicenter Research; Researched by DEAN TAKAHASHI and JANICE L. JONES / Los Angeles Times
