A ‘Rough Road’ for Haiti’s Premier : Caribbean: Malval faces difficult task of rebuilding shattered nation. Top priority is return of Aristide.

Robert Malval, Haiti’s first legitimate prime minister in nearly two years, left for Washington on Thursday to receive the blessings of exiled President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and to begin the difficult task of rebuilding this shattered nation.

“The rough road for Malval still lies in front of him,” said one Haitian political expert, despite Malval’s ratification by the National Assembly and the promise of a quick end to the international economic boycott that has left the country’s infrastructure in tatters.

By the unanimous accounts of diplomats and Haitian experts, the first priority for Malval, a 50-year-old publisher and political moderate, will be to ensure that Aristide, who was overthrown by the military in September, 1991, returns as scheduled on Oct. 30.

Aristide, Haiti’s first truly democratically elected president, has been in exile, mostly in Washington, since his ouster. The military and much of the wealthy Haitian business and social elite have spent the interval trying to prevent his restoration, using murder and general terror to repress the majority of people, who want him back.

But under extreme pressure from the Clinton Administration and the rest of the world, including the highly effective petroleum boycott, the military high command agreed on July 3 to resign their offices and allow Aristide back.

However, doubts about the military’s sincerity or the ability of the high command to persuade the army as a whole to agree to Aristide’s return have made Malval focus almost entirely on stabilizing the Caribbean country and convincing opponents that the president presents no danger to them.

“The immediate job is to get Aristide back,” said one influential Haitian economist and politician. “The situation changes after that, but nothing can move forward until he is back in the (presidential) palace.”

Malval, a longtime friend and supporter of Aristide, agrees--and has already announced that he will resign by Dec. 15 to permit himself in the interim to concentrate on getting the radical populist priest back in control.

“From the very first day, we will launch a campaign to pacify and reconcile the nation,” Malval told reporters. “Otherwise recovery will not be possible.”

His initial step will be to accept his new position in a ceremony scheduled for Monday at the Haitian Embassy in Washington, where Aristide will swear Malval into office.

At the same time, the U.N. Security Council is expected to pass a resolution lifting the embargo, imposed June 23, that successfully aimed at forcing the military and its civilian front government to accept Aristide’s return.

Once the United Nations acts, oil tankers are to sail for Haiti to deliver gasoline to a country that has all but run out. The United States and other nations also will release limited amounts of economic aid frozen since the coup, to help the new government deal with the wreckage left by the embargo.

While Malval, a wealthy businessman who has kept up contacts with both military and civilian foes of Aristide, is widely respected, few if any experts feel he will have an easy time.

Although both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies ratified him, they did so only under strong American pressure. He has an uncertain one-vote majority in the Senate and faces an overwhelmingly hostile majority in the Chamber of Deputies.

Also, the Cabinet Malval will swear in next week makes even moderate supporters in the business community and important diplomats unhappy.

“It is neither broad enough nor does it have the technical competence” to rebuild the country, according to one diplomat whose government has worked hard for Aristide’s return.

And in any case, said another diplomat, “we have to face the fact that the real opposition is still to come. “You can expect anti-Aristide forces in the assembly to do all they can to defeat any of Malval’s programs no matter what they are, which is why he probably should not propose any far-reaching reforms.”

Another obstacle will be the government bureaucracy, which is largely stacked with anti-Aristide workers, many of whom he fired before the coup and were later reinstated.

“You can bet even the most mundane of orders will be resisted,” said a Haitian businesswoman and former government official.

Even if the prime minister decides on a more aggressive posture, many observers think he weakened himself by announcing in advance that he will quit by Dec. 15.

“He is already a lame duck,” said one businessman who opposed the coup and has worked for Aristide’s return. “No one is going to take a chance on Malval when they know there will be a new government by the end of the year.

“Worse,” he said, “I’m afraid the international community will hold back on its involvement until they see what happens after Dec. 15th.”

Even more dire, in the minds of some experts, is what the military and its associated gangs of civilian thugs may do before Aristide returns. The signs are unpromising.

Even though there are more than 200 U.N.-sponsored human rights observers stationed around the country, human rights violations, including murder, actually have increased since the July 3 agreement.

And leaders of the observer force say privately that the violence probably will worsen. “A real fear,” said one human rights observer, “is that the military and its allies will decide that once the embargo is lifted, they can run free under the assumption that the U.N. will not reimpose (the boycott) against Aristide and Malval.”