Forecasters Predict Cold, Wet Weather Likely for Holidays : Winter: Meteorologists say the intermittent rain expected for this weekend may signal a ‘stormy period’ for Christmas.

By the time Christmas Day rolls around, the weather outside just might be frightful, at least by Southern California standards, with the onset of a cold, rainy pattern that could bring a wetter-than-average winter to Ventura County, forecasters said Friday.

A harbinger of the wet winter will arrive today, said meteorologists, who projected half an inch of rain for the county’s coastal areas and about an inch in the mountains. Temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

This weekend’s “on again, off again” rain will begin this morning and is expected to taper off by Sunday afternoon, forecasters said.

“My crystal ball is fuzzy, but it looks like Christmas is going to be a stormy period,” said Bruce Entwistle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “It looks like we’re going to be in a pattern of a cold, occasionally stormy period.”

The county’s long-term weather forecast was a topic for area meteorologists who met earlier this month to discuss the El Nino weather system and its effect on the weather outlook through February. El Nino is a warm coastal current, usually starting around Christmastime and lasting for several weeks, that pushes warm air up the Pacific Coast into the northern hemisphere.

Rae Strange, a meteorologist with the private forecasting firm Pacific Weather Analysis in Montecito, cautiously predicted a colder-than-usual season.

“This winter is dramatically different,” Strange said. “The last two winters we’ve had a pattern of warm subtropical air bringing storms from the west and southwest. So far (this winter), we’ve had storms dropping down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska, which is bringing this cold air.”

Tim Barker, a forecaster for the National Weather Service, predicted above-average precipitation for Ventura County because of the El Nino pattern.

“To say this El Nino is unusual is an understatement,” Barker said. He said El Ninos, which usually come for two-year periods, are most often--although not always--an indication of increased rainfall.

“El Ninos are often a strong signal for precipitation but not every time,” Barker said. “And El Ninos are just one of the factors. Basing weather predictions on El Ninos do fail, but it’s better than just rolling the dice.”

Curtis Brack of WeatherData Inc., which forecasts for The Times, said in a telephone interview that temperatures may be a little cooler than average as a result of several cold fronts that have moved through the region in the past couple of weeks.

“There haven’t been any offshore Santa Ana winds to warm things up,” Brack said.

This weekend’s wet weather, however, was not expected to put a damper on holiday festivities or last-minute Christmas shopping.

The Parade of Lights celebration in the Ventura Harbor is expected to go on as planned, with small boats making an appearance at 6 p.m. and large boats showing up an hour later, said officials at the Ventura Harbor Village.

And, with only seven more shopping days until Christmas, the weather is not likely to keep people from the stores.

Felicity Maher, owner of The Body Shop in the Oaks Mall in Thousand Oaks, said business was brisk.

“I never know with rain,” Maher said. “But sometimes the malls do better in rainy times.”